The MLB research deskEvery matchup, measured.
Every matchup, measured.
Every prediction, on the record.
BTB projects every starter and hitter on the slate from pitch-level Statcast, park air density and a fitted plate-appearance model. Each number is frozen at first pitch, so the record can't be edited after the fact.
On the record
The full record →Hitter predictions1,764frozen before first pitch
Game predictions98frozen before first pitch
Slates9Sep 17, 2026 to Sep 25, 2026
Slate · Sep 26
Full slate →- 11:35 AM CTNYM @ WSHJonah Tong 5.8 K · Connelly Early 3.8 K
- 12:10 PM CTPIT @ DETTBD · Justin Verlander 4.1 K
- 2:07 PM CTCIN @ TORRhett Lowder 3.2 K · Trey Yesavage 5.2 K
- 3:05 PM CTLAD @ SFBlake Snell 6.7 K · Matt Wilkinson 3.0 K
- 3:10 PM CTTEX @ MINTBD · Bailey Ober 4.4 K
- 3:10 PM CTATL @ MIATBD · TBD
- 6:10 PM CTCLE @ KCTanner Bibee 3.7 K · Michael Wacha 4.3 K
- 6:10 PM CTCOL @ CWSJose Quintana 3.1 K · Davis Martin 2.9 K
- 6:10 PM CTSTL @ MILQuinn Mathews 5.0 K · Dustin May 4.0 K
- 6:15 PM CTTB @ PHIGriffin Jax 4.9 K · TBD
- 7:40 PM CTARI @ SDTBD · Walker Buehler 3.4 K
- 8:40 PM CTHOU @ OAKTBD · Jack Perkins 4.6 K
- 8:40 PM CTLAA @ SEARyan Johnson 4.2 K · Kade Anderson 5.4 K
Latest research
All research →- Contact from balls in play onlyAlmost half of what the engine counted as a hitter's contact was foul balls. Dropping them fixes about 40% of the gap between our hitter projections and what actually happened.
- Strikeouts at the book's own lineThe model is good at counting strikeouts. It is not yet good at the question a bettor asks: will this pitcher go over the line the book set for him?
- What each engine channel earnsWe switched off, or halved, every hand-set piece of the engine and asked whether the numbers got better or worse on games the engine was never tuned on.
- Defense and bullpen rest don't fix game totalsTeam defense is real and bullpen fatigue sounds obvious. Neither made our game totals or win probabilities better, so neither shipped.
Best chance of a hit
Every hitter →- Steven Kwan CLE · vs Michael Wacha RHP74.3%2+ TB 41%
- Corey Seager TEX · vs Bailey Ober RHP72.4%2+ TB 51%
- Salvador Perez KC · vs Tanner Bibee RHP72.2%2+ TB 45%
- Luis Arraez PHI · vs Griffin Jax RHP72.1%2+ TB 41%
- Jeff McNeil OAK · vs TBD 72.0%2+ TB 42%
- Jake McCarthy COL · vs Davis Martin RHP71.9%2+ TB 43%
- Bobby Witt Jr. KC · vs Tanner Bibee RHP71.1%2+ TB 45%
- Yainer Diaz HOU · vs Jack Perkins RHP71.1%2+ TB 47%
- Yordan Alvarez HOU · vs Jack Perkins RHP70.8%2+ TB 51%
- Vinnie Pasquantino KC · vs Tanner Bibee RHP70.6%2+ TB 46%
Projections, not picks: what the engine expects before first pitch, frozen and graded after.
What a play has to clear
A projection only becomes a play when the edge clears the market's measured error, the market has earned its status, the lineup is confirmed and the price is under two hours old. Most nights, few do. That is the point.
The rules →