MLBengine v14
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Jared Serna

MIA · Hitter · 3 games projected since Sep 22, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

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Sep 26 · 3:10 PM CTvs TBD ATL @ MIA1+ hit 52.4%2+ TB 27.0%HR 7.6%Sep 25 · 6:10 PM CTvs Ray Kerr LHPATL @ MIA1+ hit 51.5%2+ TB 27.0%HR 7.6%

Statcast

by window and pitcher hand
Jared Serna · last 90 daysthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G22.500.500.500.450.15550.0%0.0%50.0%75.475.40.0%0.0%100.0%
Last 15 G56.400.333.400.300.19833.3%0.0%33.3%81.398.20.0%50.0%50.0%
Last 30 G56.400.333.400.300.19833.3%0.0%33.3%81.398.20.0%50.0%50.0%
90 days56.400.333.400.300.19833.3%0.0%33.3%81.398.20.0%50.0%50.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 4 balls in play
Ground 75%Line drive 25%Fly ball 0%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G47.000.000.000.000.06828.6%0.0%15.4%85.895.90.0%20.0%20.0%
Last 15 G816.133.188.267.200.20931.2%6.2%26.5%92.0109.210.0%50.0%30.0%
Last 30 G816.133.188.267.200.20931.2%6.2%26.5%92.0109.210.0%50.0%30.0%
90 days816.133.188.267.200.20931.2%6.2%26.5%92.0109.210.0%50.0%30.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 10 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 20%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G59.111.111.111.100.08733.3%0.0%26.3%84.195.90.0%16.7%33.3%
Last 15 G1022.200.227.300.227.20631.8%4.5%28.3%89.0109.27.1%50.0%35.7%
Last 30 G1022.200.227.300.227.20631.8%4.5%28.3%89.0109.27.1%50.0%35.7%
90 days1022.200.227.300.227.20631.8%4.5%28.3%89.0109.27.1%50.0%35.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 14 balls in play
Ground 57%Line drive 21%Fly ball 14%Pop-up 7%

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPFastball91.793.9-31.089Out
Sep 24LHPChangeup80.086.3-11.142Double play
Sep 24LHPFastball94.695.925.228Out
Sep 23RHPFastball95.575.49.310Single
Sep 15LHPCutter94.482.938.012Out
Sep 12LHPFastball95.869.984.003Out
Sep 8LHPSinker90.4106.419.835Double
Sep 8LHPChangeup79.983.914.855Double
Sep 4LHPSplitter82.996.3-27.147Out
Sep 4LHPSplitter82.495.5-17.217Fielder's choice
Sep 2LHPFastball92.5109.2-21.120Out
Sep 2RHPSinker91.096.818.477Sac fly
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24300000
Sep 23111000
Sep 22200002
Sep 15200001
Sep 12100000
Sep 11300003
Sep 8324001
Sep 4200000
Sep 2411010
Sep 1100000
FormNormal
Contact rating–percentile of xwOBA
Last 100 pitches–
wOBA / xwOBA.230 / .203running 27 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit3/10
2+ total bases1/10
Home run0/10

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Talent
Talent grade—— type
wOBA–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–

A season-level read, blending this season with last, shrunk toward league where the sample is thin.

Jared Serna · every 1+ hit projection, frozen pre-gameHitNo hitNot settled
30%50%70%90%Sep 22 vs Shota Imanaga: 43.5% · no hitSep 24 vs Matthew Boyd: 53.3% · no hitSep 25 vs Ray Kerr: 51.1% · not settledSep 22Sep 25

Hits in 0 of 2 settled games; the projections added up to 1.0. A handful of games says little about the model on its own.

Predicted vs what happened

2 settled games
Games with a hit0 of 2BTB expected 1.0
Games with 2+ TB0 of 2BTB expected 0.5
Games with a HR0 of 2BTB expected 0.2
Talent grade—wOBA – · K% –

One player's handful of games says little about the model; the market-level record is on the record. A game he never batted in is void, not a miss.

DateFacing1+ hit2+ TBHRPAHTBHR
Sep 25Ray Kerr51.1%26.8%7.6%not settled
Sep 24Matthew Boyd53.3%26.4%10.1%3000
Sep 22Shota Imanaga43.5%28.2%10.8%2000
Probabilities as served and frozen before first pitch.