MLBengine v14
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Troy Johnston

COL · Hitter · 2 games projected since Sep 22, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

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Sep 25 · 6:40 PM CTvs Sean Burke RHPCOL @ CWS1+ hit 58.1%2+ TB 30.5%HR 7.8%

Statcast

by window and pitcher hand
Troy Johnston · last 90 daysthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G49.286.444.429.394.37411.1%11.1%6.2%85.493.00.0%0.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1328.292.393.417.362.31328.6%7.1%22.6%89.4100.40.0%31.2%43.8%
Last 30 G2869.283.377.417.367.35820.3%7.2%22.1%88.5103.52.2%32.6%41.3%
90 days48118.222.331.323.306.33817.8%10.2%22.0%90.2106.61.3%37.5%40.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 80 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 28%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G14.000.000.000.000.02050.0%0.0%22.2%87.691.10.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G919.222.263.333.263.24831.6%5.3%26.2%91.5106.90.0%33.3%33.3%
Last 30 G1528.231.286.423.307.28728.6%7.1%30.8%89.9106.95.6%27.8%38.9%
90 days2650.239.280.348.282.25624.0%6.0%27.4%89.6106.92.9%32.4%35.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 34 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 24%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.182.308.273.273.26523.1%7.7%12.0%85.993.00.0%0.0%37.5%
Last 15 G1547.262.340.381.322.28729.8%6.4%24.0%90.3106.90.0%32.1%39.3%
Last 30 G3097.267.351.419.349.33822.7%7.2%24.9%88.9106.93.1%31.2%40.6%
90 days52168.228.315.331.299.31419.6%8.9%23.8%90.0106.91.8%36.0%38.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 114 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 26%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 7%

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 22RHPCutter89.877.462.016Out
Sep 22RHPFastball94.187.116.909Double
Sep 20RHPSweeper85.872.710.247Single
Sep 17RHPChangeup86.789.1-9.132Out
Sep 17RHPSlider86.493.0-13.124Double play
Sep 17RHPChangeup91.192.98.512Double play
Sep 16LHPCurveball80.284.064.036Out
Sep 16LHPSlider84.591.1-28.042Out
Sep 15RHPSlider84.595.915.803Single
Sep 15RHPSinker94.694.616.636Double
Sep 15LHPSinker96.4106.012.965Double
Sep 13RHPSlider86.593.552.003Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 23100010
Sep 22312000
Sep 20111000
Sep 17400001
Sep 16400002
Sep 15435000
Sep 13400002
Sep 11411001
Sep 6500004
Sep 5411000
FormCold
Contact rating65Above average
Last 100 pitches54trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.299 / .331running 32 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Talent
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.317
Barrel%3.1%
Hard-hit%25.6%
K%20.3%
BB%8.2%

A season-level read, blending this season with last, shrunk toward league where the sample is thin.

Troy Johnston · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

Troy Johnston · every 1+ hit projection, frozen pre-gameHitNo hitNot settled
30%50%70%90%Sep 22 vs Michael Soroka: 52.8% · 1 HSep 25 vs Sean Burke: 58.8% · not settledSep 22Sep 25

Hits in 1 of 1 settled games; the projections added up to 0.5. A handful of games says little about the model on its own.

Predicted vs what happened

1 settled games
Games with a hit1 of 1BTB expected 0.5
Games with 2+ TB1 of 1BTB expected 0.3
Games with a HR0 of 1BTB expected 0.1
Talent gradeCwOBA .317 · K% 20.3%

One player's handful of games says little about the model; the market-level record is on the record. A game he never batted in is void, not a miss.

DateFacing1+ hit2+ TBHRPAHTBHR
Sep 25Sean Burke58.8%31.0%7.5%not settled
Sep 22Michael Soroka52.8%29.3%7.6%3120
Probabilities as served and frozen before first pitch.