MLBengine v14
← ATL at MIA, Sep 25, 2026
6:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · MIA · batting 7Deyvison De Los Santos
Bats rightTalent grade DBalancedNormal
.277wOBA vs LHP.270xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · ATLRay Kerr
Throws leftBTB Stuff 89Stable
2.2projected K20%K%1.0trips vs this hitter
Ray Kerr's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 36% usage, 95.1 mph, +8.6″ arm side, +14.9″ rise. Deyvison De Los Santos: wOBA .340 vs league .343 (about even).Fastball 36%Curveball: 33% usage, 81.2 mph, -0.8″ arm side, -3.2″ rise. Deyvison De Los Santos: wOBA .321 vs league .325 (about even).Curveball 33%Sinker: 21% usage, 94.7 mph, +14.8″ arm side, +10.4″ rise. Deyvison De Los Santos: wOBA .356 vs league .360 (about even).Sinker 21%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Deyvison De Los Santos's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Deyvison De Los Santos's last 20 balls in playHit (3)Out (17)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 106.1 mph at 10°Out: 86.6 mph at -8°Out: 90.1 mph at 6°Out: 88.2 mph at 0°Out: 94.4 mph at 45°Out: 81.9 mph at 67°Out: 39.5 mph at -57°Out: 89.0 mph at 54°Out: 87.4 mph at 37°Out: 86.9 mph at 62°Out: 69.4 mph at -9°Single: 78.9 mph at 23°Out: 88.0 mph at 43°Out: 98.1 mph at -12°Out: 84.9 mph at 63°Out: 92.2 mph at -19°Out: 60.3 mph at -46°Double: 103.8 mph at 18°Out: 66.2 mph at -9°Single: 70.5 mph at 13°
15% hit 95+ mph20% in the sweet spot15% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit54.4%54.5%-0.1
2+ total bases29.3%29.7%-0.4
Home run8.0%8.7%-0.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.5
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-0.8
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.5
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-1.1
Home run
Starter
+0.3
Pitch mix
-0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-1.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Deyvison De Los Santos hits
Deyvison De Los Santos · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .225 shrunk (raw .005 on 1 PA) · league .243 · 1 pitches seen.225xwOBA .296 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .296 · 2 pitches seenxwOBA .235 shrunk (raw .012 on 1 PA) · league .254 · 4 pitches seen.235xwOBA .308 shrunk (raw .306 on 2 PA) · league .308 · 4 pitches seen.308xwOBA .385 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .385 · 1 pitches seenxwOBA .340 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .340 · 3 pitches seenxwOBA .252 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .273 · 2 pitches seen.252xwOBA .320 shrunk (raw .141 on 2 PA) · league .350 · 4 pitches seen.320xwOBA .296 shrunk (raw .260 on 1 PA) · league .299 · 4 pitches seen.296xwOBA .312 shrunk (raw .374 on 2 PA) · league .302 · 6 pitches seen.312xwOBA .366 shrunk (raw .608 on 1 PA) · league .346 · 5 pitches seen.366xwOBA .261 shrunk (raw .092 on 2 PA) · league .289 · 11 pitches seen.261xwOBA .244 shrunk (raw .164 on 2 PA) · league .257 · 8 pitches seen.244
vs LHP · 55 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 100% of 2 swings · league 21%100%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 23%0%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 9%0%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 10%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 11%0%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 17%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 33% of 3 swings · league 16%33%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 25%0%Whiff 50% of 2 swings · league 29%50%Whiff 80% of 5 swings · league 48%80%Whiff 67% of 3 swings · league 34%67%
vs LHP · 55 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 100% of 1 pitches · league 63%100%Swings at 100% of 2 pitches · league 71%100%Swings at 50% of 4 pitches · league 64%50%Swings at 75% of 4 pitches · league 67%75%Swings at 0% of 1 pitches · league 76%0%Swings at 33% of 3 pitches · league 72%33%Swings at 0% of 2 pitches · league 59%0%Swings at 100% of 4 pitches · league 68%100%Swings at 75% of 4 pitches · league 66%75%Swings at 33% of 6 pitches · league 30%33%Swings at 40% of 5 pitches · league 26%40%Swings at 46% of 11 pitches · league 31%46%Swings at 38% of 8 pitches · league 41%38%
vs LHP · 55 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Deyvison De Los Santos against each of Ray Kerr's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball36%95.1+9″ / +15″.340.34321.1%18.3%5Little history vs this shape
Curveball33%81.2-1″ / -3″.321.32535.0%31.1%1Little history vs this shape
Sinker21%94.7+15″ / +10″.356.36016.5%14.3%3Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Deyvison De Los Santos · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G47.000.000.000.000.14228.6%0.0%42.9%78.894.40.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G815.200.200.267.203.20320.0%0.0%35.7%79.7103.80.0%16.7%25.0%
Last 30 G815.200.200.267.203.20320.0%0.0%35.7%79.7103.80.0%16.7%25.0%
90 days815.200.200.267.203.20320.0%0.0%35.7%79.7103.80.0%16.7%25.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 12 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 25%Fly ball 8%Pop-up 17%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.000.125.000.088.22037.5%0.0%30.8%92.3106.10.0%25.0%25.0%
Last 15 G713.000.077.000.054.14930.8%0.0%21.7%88.2106.10.0%12.5%12.5%
Last 30 G713.000.077.000.054.14930.8%0.0%21.7%88.2106.10.0%12.5%12.5%
90 days713.000.077.000.054.14930.8%0.0%21.7%88.2106.10.0%12.5%12.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 8 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 13%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 25%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.000.067.000.047.18333.3%0.0%37.0%84.8106.10.0%11.1%11.1%
Last 15 G1128.111.143.148.134.17825.0%0.0%29.4%83.1106.10.0%15.0%20.0%
Last 30 G1128.111.143.148.134.17825.0%0.0%29.4%83.1106.10.0%15.0%20.0%
90 days1128.111.143.148.134.17825.0%0.0%29.4%83.1106.10.0%15.0%20.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 20 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 20%Fly ball 15%Pop-up 20%
FormNormal
Contact rating–percentile of xwOBA
Last 100 pitches–
wOBA / xwOBA.160 / .159results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit3/10
2+ total bases1/10
Home run0/10

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPCurveball83.4106.110.867Out
Sep 25RHPSlider84.186.6-8.139Out
Sep 25LHPFastball94.490.16.444Double play
Sep 24LHPChangeup78.988.20.260Out
Sep 24LHPFastball95.594.445.005Out
Sep 24LHPChangeup81.581.967.000Out
Sep 22LHPSplitter82.939.5-57.282Out
Sep 20RHPSlider86.889.054.005Out
Sep 20RHPSinker98.387.437.021Out
Sep 18RHPFastball97.886.962.017Out
Sep 15RHPSinker93.169.4-9.052Out
Sep 15LHPCutter94.878.923.674Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400001
Sep 24300000
Sep 22300001
Sep 20300001
Sep 19200002
Sep 18100000
Sep 15411001
Sep 8300001
Sep 5100000
Sep 4212000

Two strikes

Ray Kerr ATL · LHPwith two strikes
Ray Kerr with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball36%43%27.3%26.1%18.6%
Curveball33%25%33.3%23.1%21.2%
Offspeed7%21%25.0%9.1%7.7%
Sinker21%11%0.0%16.7%17.7%
Deyvison De Los Santos bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Deyvison De Los Santos with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%41.0%41.5%
Whiff%22.1%21.6%
Contact%77.9%78.4%
Chase%40.7%39.9%
wOBA.241.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.2%18.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.304
K%23.2%
BB%7.2%
Whiff%10.8%
Barrel%4.6%
Hard-hit%23.9%
Avg EV87.6

Against left-handers, last 90 days

14 PA
wOBA.277
xwOBA vs this mix.270against pitches like his
RV/100-0.98
Hard-hit%21.6%
K%23.0%
BB%5.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Ray KerrLHP · ATL vs MIA
2.2projected strikeouts · likely 0 to 4 · 11.3 batters over 2.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 81.6%82%≤34 strikeouts: 11.0%11%45 strikeouts: 4.8%5%56 strikeouts: 1.8%2%67 strikeouts: 0.6%1%78 strikeouts: 0.1%0%89+ strikeouts: 0.1%0%9+book 2.5
Over 2.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 62%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.0%
BB%1.8%
Whiff%11.7%
Velo89.1
BTB Stuff89
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball36%10495.012.5%
Curveball33%7681.118.6%
Sinker21%8494.60.0%
Offspeed7%–80.37.7%
Cutter4%8690.314.3%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Ray Kerr ATL · LHPvsMIA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Deyvison De Los Santos: every projection we've made →