MLBengine v14
← ATL at MIA, Sep 25, 2026
6:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · MIA · batting 4Javier Sanoja
Bats rightTalent grade CBalancedNormal
.409wOBA vs LHP.331xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · ATLRay Kerr
Throws leftBTB Stuff 89Stable
2.2projected K20%K%1.0trips vs this hitter
Ray Kerr's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 36% usage, 95.1 mph, +8.6″ arm side, +14.9″ rise. Javier Sanoja: wOBA .358 vs league .343 (about even).Fastball 36%Curveball: 33% usage, 81.2 mph, -0.8″ arm side, -3.2″ rise. Javier Sanoja: wOBA .339 vs league .325 (about even).Curveball 33%Sinker: 21% usage, 94.7 mph, +14.8″ arm side, +10.4″ rise. Javier Sanoja: wOBA .375 vs league .360 (hitter's edge).Sinker 21%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Javier Sanoja's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Javier Sanoja's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 103.1 mph at 2°Single: 94.2 mph at 9°Out: 75.0 mph at -50°Out: 83.3 mph at -22°Out: 88.2 mph at 21°Out: 85.1 mph at -12°Out: 73.5 mph at 77°Single: 44.2 mph at -21°Double: 93.8 mph at 20°Single: 71.6 mph at 22°Out: 55.2 mph at -17°Single: 79.4 mph at 10°Single: 78.5 mph at 20°Out: 71.1 mph at 11°Out: 79.0 mph at 30°Home run: 100.7 mph at 29°Out: 97.5 mph at -4°Out: 88.9 mph at 21°Out: 96.7 mph at 21°Out: 90.3 mph at 7°Out: 77.8 mph at 68°Out: 82.9 mph at 54°Single: 105.7 mph at 2°Out: 75.9 mph at 56°Double: 99.5 mph at 1°Out: 81.9 mph at 35°Single: 96.3 mph at -5°Out: 68.3 mph at 73°Out: 73.4 mph at 62°Out: 92.7 mph at 50°Single: 90.9 mph at 16°Out: 96.3 mph at 45°Out: 99.8 mph at -12°Home run: 103.9 mph at 23°Triple: 97.9 mph at 26°Out: 49.5 mph at -58°Out: 89.4 mph at -16°Out: 100.1 mph at -3°Double: 77.6 mph at 20°Out: 76.6 mph at 36°
30% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit70.1%69.8%+0.4
2+ total bases39.3%39.0%+0.3
Home run5.6%6.0%-0.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.2
Pitch mix
+0.5
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-0.5
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.3
Pitch mix
+0.5
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-0.8
Home run
Starter
+0.3
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.8

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Javier Sanoja hits
Javier Sanoja · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .293 shrunk (raw .591 on 2 PA) · league .243 · 2 pitches seen.293xwOBA .273 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .296 · 10 pitches seen.273xwOBA .322 shrunk (raw .486 on 5 PA) · league .254 · 12 pitches seen.322xwOBA .333 shrunk (raw .384 on 6 PA) · league .308 · 17 pitches seen.333xwOBA .418 shrunk (raw .497 on 5 PA) · league .385 · 19 pitches seen.418xwOBA .235 shrunk (raw .094 on 9 PA) · league .340 · 17 pitches seen.235xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw .277 on 5 PA) · league .273 · 12 pitches seen.274xwOBA .277 shrunk (raw .101 on 5 PA) · league .350 · 17 pitches seen.277xwOBA .281 shrunk (raw .260 on 10 PA) · league .299 · 17 pitches seen.281xwOBA .302 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .302 · 17 pitches seenxwOBA .351 shrunk (raw .359 on 7 PA) · league .346 · 42 pitches seen.351xwOBA .350 shrunk (raw .403 on 14 PA) · league .289 · 67 pitches seen.350xwOBA .371 shrunk (raw .439 on 20 PA) · league .257 · 56 pitches seen.371
vs LHP · 305 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 21%0%Whiff 0% of 8 swings · league 23%0%Whiff 0% of 11 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 8% of 13 swings · league 10%8%Whiff 17% of 12 swings · league 11%17%Whiff 13% of 8 swings · league 17%13%Whiff 27% of 11 swings · league 14%27%Whiff 0% of 10 swings · league 16%0%Whiff 0% of 6 swings · league 25%0%Whiff 0% of 14 swings · league 29%0%Whiff 16% of 31 swings · league 48%16%Whiff 19% of 27 swings · league 34%19%
vs LHP · 305 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 100% of 2 pitches · league 63%100%Swings at 10% of 10 pitches · league 71%10%Swings at 67% of 12 pitches · league 64%67%Swings at 65% of 17 pitches · league 67%65%Swings at 68% of 19 pitches · league 76%68%Swings at 71% of 17 pitches · league 72%71%Swings at 67% of 12 pitches · league 59%67%Swings at 65% of 17 pitches · league 68%65%Swings at 59% of 17 pitches · league 66%59%Swings at 35% of 17 pitches · league 30%35%Swings at 33% of 42 pitches · league 26%33%Swings at 46% of 67 pitches · league 31%46%Swings at 48% of 56 pitches · league 41%48%
vs LHP · 305 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Javier Sanoja against each of Ray Kerr's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball36%95.1+9″ / +15″.358.3439.6%18.3%15About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball33%81.2-1″ / -3″.339.32521.2%31.1%4Little history vs this shape
Sinker21%94.7+15″ / +10″.375.3607.4%14.3%26About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Javier Sanoja · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G36.333.333.333.300.2500.0%0.0%0.0%73.888.20.0%0.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1018.294.333.412.406.2860.0%5.6%3.8%80.499.80.0%12.5%31.2%
Last 30 G2139.278.333.389.354.3232.6%7.7%8.8%83.0106.70.0%17.6%35.3%
90 days4992.349.391.512.413.3497.6%6.5%11.0%85.7106.71.3%28.6%41.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 77 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 34%Fly ball 17%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.429.467.714.518.40013.3%6.7%4.0%84.9103.18.3%25.0%58.3%
Last 15 G1548.326.354.565.395.34112.5%4.2%15.2%88.3105.75.0%40.0%37.5%
Last 30 G3090.365.400.600.438.3578.9%5.6%12.6%88.9106.53.9%41.6%41.6%
90 days75198.303.338.511.380.3086.1%5.1%10.2%86.8108.44.0%33.7%37.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 175 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 23%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.400.429.600.452.3559.5%4.8%2.9%81.2103.15.6%16.7%55.6%
Last 15 G1566.317.348.524.398.3279.1%4.5%12.7%86.0105.73.6%32.1%35.7%
Last 30 G30129.339.380.537.413.3477.0%6.2%11.7%87.1106.72.7%34.2%39.6%
90 days76290.318.355.511.390.3216.6%5.5%10.5%86.5108.43.2%32.1%38.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 252 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 27%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 12%
Javier Sanoja · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating63Average
Last 100 pitches29trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.386 / .329running 57 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit10/12
2+ total bases7/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSlider87.1103.12.479Single
Sep 25RHPFastball98.394.29.579Single
Sep 25LHPSinker94.475.0-50.195Out
Sep 25RHPSlider86.283.3-22.069Out
Sep 24LHPChangeup80.488.221.398Out
Sep 24LHPChangeup81.285.1-12.086Out
Sep 24RHPSplitter90.873.577.000Out
Sep 24LHPFastball92.344.2-21.205Single
Sep 23RHPFastball93.893.820.342Double
Sep 23RHPSplitter83.471.622.880Single
Sep 23RHPSinker93.155.2-17.076Out
Sep 22LHPSplitter84.479.410.341Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25422000
Sep 24411000
Sep 23423001
Sep 22622011
Sep 20314100
Sep 19500011
Sep 18423000
Sep 16411001
Sep 15511000
Sep 14427100

Two strikes

Ray Kerr ATL · LHPwith two strikes
Ray Kerr with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball36%43%27.3%26.1%18.6%
Curveball33%25%33.3%23.1%21.2%
Offspeed7%21%25.0%9.1%7.7%
Sinker21%11%0.0%16.7%17.7%
Javier Sanoja bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Javier Sanoja with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%32.9%41.5%
Whiff%17.8%21.6%
Contact%82.2%78.4%
Chase%45.2%39.9%
wOBA.268.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes15.3%18.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.366
K%7.9%
BB%5.6%
Whiff%6.0%
Barrel%2.5%
Hard-hit%28.2%
Avg EV86.4

Against left-handers, last 90 days

92 PA
wOBA.409
xwOBA vs this mix.331against pitches like his
RV/1001.08
Hard-hit%24.6%
K%9.0%
BB%5.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Ray KerrLHP · ATL vs MIA
2.2projected strikeouts · likely 0 to 4 · 11.3 batters over 2.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 81.6%82%≤34 strikeouts: 11.0%11%45 strikeouts: 4.8%5%56 strikeouts: 1.8%2%67 strikeouts: 0.6%1%78 strikeouts: 0.1%0%89+ strikeouts: 0.1%0%9+book 2.5
Over 2.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 62%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.0%
BB%1.8%
Whiff%11.7%
Velo89.1
BTB Stuff89
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball36%10495.012.5%
Curveball33%7681.118.6%
Sinker21%8494.60.0%
Offspeed7%–80.37.7%
Cutter4%8690.314.3%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Ray Kerr ATL · LHPvsMIA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Javier Sanoja: every projection we've made →