MLBengine v14
← ATL at MIA, Sep 25, 2026
6:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · ATL · batting 3Matt Olson
Bats leftTalent grade APowerHot
.344wOBA vs RHP.353xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · MIAEury Pérez
Throws rightBTB Stuff 111Trending Down
5.6projected K25%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Eury Pérez's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 29% usage, 98.3 mph, +11.8″ arm side, +18.2″ rise. Matt Olson: wOBA .324 vs league .319 (about even).Fastball 29%Sinker: 26% usage, 97.7 mph, +15.5″ arm side, +13.8″ rise. Matt Olson: wOBA .336 vs league .331 (about even).Sinker 26%Slider: 19% usage, 89.0 mph, +0.1″ arm side, +5.3″ rise. Matt Olson: wOBA .363 vs league .358 (about even).Slider 19%Sweeper: 12% usage, 83.9 mph, -7.0″ arm side, +11.0″ rise. Matt Olson: wOBA .355 vs league .349 (about even).Sweeper 12%Changeup: 7% usage, 90.2 mph, +14.3″ arm side, +10.2″ rise. Matt Olson: wOBA .330 vs league .324 (about even).Changeup 7%Curveball: 7% usage, 80.7 mph, -8.6″ arm side, -6.7″ rise. Matt Olson: wOBA .322 vs league .316 (about even).Curveball 7%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Matt Olson's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Matt Olson's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 78.4 mph at 31°Out: 100.3 mph at 42°Out: 101.0 mph at 39°Out: 94.1 mph at 67°Out: 106.4 mph at 17°Out: 97.4 mph at -17°Out: 105.8 mph at 0°Home run: 107.4 mph at 32°Out: 104.7 mph at 9°Double: 67.5 mph at 43°Out: 101.3 mph at -8°Out: 98.6 mph at -13°Out: 87.0 mph at 67°Out: 107.5 mph at 5°Single: 97.2 mph at -1°Out: 99.0 mph at -3°Out: 99.5 mph at -22°Single: 106.0 mph at 15°Out: 77.0 mph at 37°Out: 54.4 mph at 57°Single: 74.9 mph at -21°Single: 89.7 mph at 8°Single: 109.2 mph at 9°Home run: 102.8 mph at 30°Out: 90.4 mph at 76°Out: 83.8 mph at 56°Out: 54.1 mph at -61°Single: 37.0 mph at 7°Out: 96.9 mph at 41°Single: 48.5 mph at -12°Single: 109.5 mph at 17°Out: 64.4 mph at -49°Out: 100.7 mph at -7°Out: 86.5 mph at -27°Home run: 101.9 mph at 30°Single: 80.6 mph at 20°Single: 98.0 mph at -11°Out: 100.9 mph at -2°Out: 90.3 mph at 43°Out: 101.1 mph at 40°
57% hit 95+ mph28% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit60.4%62.4%-2.0
2+ total bases39.9%41.5%-1.7
Home run18.6%19.7%-1.0
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.8
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
-0.8
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.1
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
-1.3
Home run
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
-1.7

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Matt Olson hits
Matt Olson · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .248 shrunk (raw .224 on 13 PA) · league .274 · 32 pitches seen.248xwOBA .259 shrunk (raw .207 on 11 PA) · league .307 · 48 pitches seen.259xwOBA .320 shrunk (raw .396 on 9 PA) · league .263 · 32 pitches seen.320xwOBA .449 shrunk (raw .500 on 25 PA) · league .342 · 63 pitches seen.449xwOBA .371 shrunk (raw .362 on 19 PA) · league .386 · 47 pitches seen.371xwOBA .417 shrunk (raw .494 on 15 PA) · league .321 · 44 pitches seen.417xwOBA .246 shrunk (raw .178 on 11 PA) · league .308 · 41 pitches seen.246xwOBA .460 shrunk (raw .542 on 16 PA) · league .351 · 49 pitches seen.460xwOBA .246 shrunk (raw .060 on 3 PA) · league .292 · 24 pitches seen.246xwOBA .393 shrunk (raw .407 on 14 PA) · league .377 · 138 pitches seen.393xwOBA .269 shrunk (raw .264 on 11 PA) · league .274 · 53 pitches seen.269xwOBA .306 shrunk (raw .324 on 29 PA) · league .263 · 140 pitches seen.306xwOBA .321 shrunk (raw .336 on 39 PA) · league .274 · 177 pitches seen.321
vs RHP · 888 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 33% of 21 swings · league 22%33%Whiff 21% of 34 swings · league 20%21%Whiff 26% of 23 swings · league 19%26%Whiff 17% of 46 swings · league 10%17%Whiff 0% of 40 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 14% of 36 swings · league 11%14%Whiff 14% of 22 swings · league 14%14%Whiff 18% of 39 swings · league 13%18%Whiff 0% of 12 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 58% of 19 swings · league 28%58%Whiff 38% of 21 swings · league 24%38%Whiff 23% of 40 swings · league 32%23%Whiff 39% of 67 swings · league 49%39%
vs RHP · 888 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 66% of 32 pitches · league 62%66%Swings at 71% of 48 pitches · league 72%71%Swings at 72% of 32 pitches · league 66%72%Swings at 73% of 63 pitches · league 70%73%Swings at 85% of 47 pitches · league 76%85%Swings at 82% of 44 pitches · league 70%82%Swings at 54% of 41 pitches · league 65%54%Swings at 80% of 49 pitches · league 68%80%Swings at 50% of 24 pitches · league 60%50%Swings at 14% of 138 pitches · league 24%14%Swings at 40% of 53 pitches · league 34%40%Swings at 29% of 140 pitches · league 40%29%Swings at 38% of 177 pitches · league 32%38%
vs RHP · 888 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Matt Olson against each of Eury Pérez's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball29%98.3+12″ / +18″.324.31927.2%22.8%40About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sinker26%97.7+16″ / +14″.336.33123.7%19.5%40About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider19%89.0+0″ / +5″.363.35822.6%21.8%33About league average vs these
Sweeper12%83.9-7″ / +11″.355.34924.0%23.6%18About league average vs these
Changeup7%90.2+14″ / +10″.330.32420.2%23.5%37About league average vs these
Curveball7%80.7-9″ / -7″.322.31626.2%25.7%23About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Matt Olson · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.000.077.000.054.20515.4%7.7%19.0%96.4106.40.0%70.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1341.278.317.444.346.3327.3%7.3%15.8%93.0109.58.6%62.9%34.3%
Last 30 G2685.208.259.338.272.32717.6%7.1%20.7%93.8110.49.4%62.5%32.8%
90 days69218.230.317.482.351.36623.4%11.0%23.1%93.5110.715.5%55.6%36.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 142 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 23%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G37.429.4291.000.593.6400.0%0.0%23.1%98.4107.514.3%85.7%28.6%
Last 15 G1022.286.318.619.393.39322.7%4.5%32.6%90.1107.512.5%68.8%31.2%
Last 30 G2041.231.268.436.302.28426.8%4.9%33.3%87.5107.57.1%53.6%21.4%
90 days58120.239.283.496.339.31630.8%5.0%27.0%90.2110.314.5%50.0%30.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 76 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 17%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.167.200.389.242.35710.0%5.0%20.6%97.2107.55.9%76.5%23.5%
Last 15 G1563.281.317.509.363.35312.7%6.3%21.8%92.1109.59.8%64.7%33.3%
Last 30 G30126.216.262.371.282.31320.6%6.3%24.9%91.9110.48.7%59.8%29.3%
90 days79338.234.305.487.347.34826.0%8.9%24.5%92.4110.715.1%53.7%34.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 218 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 21%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 11%
Matt Olson · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating89Excellent
Last 100 pitches96trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.345 / .364running 19 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run4/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSinker96.778.431.125Out
Sep 25RHPFastball96.9100.342.118Out
Sep 24RHPCutter86.2101.039.303Out
Sep 24RHPSweeper86.194.167.008Out
Sep 24RHPSlider83.5106.417.660Sac fly
Sep 24RHPFastball94.497.4-17.132Out
Sep 24LHPFastball96.4105.80.480Out
Sep 23LHPSweeper81.7107.4321.809Home run
Sep 23LHPFastball92.0104.79.722Out
Sep 23LHPSweeper84.467.543.369Double
Sep 23RHPCutter98.7101.3-8.221Double play
Sep 22LHPSinker94.698.6-13.198Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25300010
Sep 24500000
Sep 23426100
Sep 22411000
Sep 20400002
Sep 19422000
Sep 18536100
Sep 16411001
Sep 15422001
Sep 14400013

Two strikes

Eury Pérez MIA · RHPwith two strikes
Eury Pérez with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball29%36%20.0%19.3%18.0%
Sinker26%19%13.6%13.3%17.0%
Slider19%16%34.3%21.4%21.1%
Sweeper12%14%50.0%22.6%19.3%
Changeup7%10%40.7%25.0%18.6%
Curveball7%5%27.8%29.2%20.0%
Other0%1%–0.0%21.7%
Matt Olson bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Matt Olson with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.0%41.0%
Whiff%23.9%21.3%
Contact%76.1%78.7%
Chase%38.4%39.6%
wOBA.245.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes23.8%21.0%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.349
K%25.9%
BB%8.9%
Whiff%11.5%
Barrel%9.3%
Hard-hit%34.0%
Avg EV92.3

Against right-handers, last 90 days

218 PA
wOBA.344
xwOBA vs this mix.353against pitches like his
RV/1000.62
Hard-hit%35.0%
K%24.0%
BB%8.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Eury PérezRHP · MIA vs ATL
5.6projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 23.7 batters over 5.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 19.7%20%≤34 strikeouts: 15.3%15%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 15.7%16%67 strikeouts: 12.5%13%78 strikeouts: 8.7%9%89+ strikeouts: 11.2%11%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 48% (red bars) · under: 52%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%25.4%
BB%11.1%
Whiff%13.8%
Velo92.9
BTB Stuff111
Location97
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball29%14598.211.6%
Sinker26%10097.76.6%
Slider19%9888.921.8%
Sweeper12%11183.921.9%
Changeup7%6390.118.8%
Curveball6%9180.78.8%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199715%10%31%.469
Sep 139624%9%24%.340
Sep 79220%12%28%.522

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Eury Pérez MIA · RHPvsATL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Matt Olson: every projection we've made →