MLBengine v14
← ATL at MIA, Sep 25, 2026
6:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · ATL · batting 4Michael Harris II
Bats leftTalent grade CPowerHot
.343wOBA vs RHP.308xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · MIAEury Pérez
Throws rightBTB Stuff 111Trending Down
5.6projected K25%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Eury Pérez's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 29% usage, 98.3 mph, +11.8″ arm side, +18.2″ rise. Michael Harris II: wOBA .325 vs league .319 (about even).Fastball 29%Sinker: 26% usage, 97.7 mph, +15.5″ arm side, +13.8″ rise. Michael Harris II: wOBA .337 vs league .331 (about even).Sinker 26%Slider: 19% usage, 89.0 mph, +0.1″ arm side, +5.3″ rise. Michael Harris II: wOBA .363 vs league .358 (about even).Slider 19%Sweeper: 12% usage, 83.9 mph, -7.0″ arm side, +11.0″ rise. Michael Harris II: wOBA .355 vs league .349 (about even).Sweeper 12%Changeup: 7% usage, 90.2 mph, +14.3″ arm side, +10.2″ rise. Michael Harris II: wOBA .330 vs league .324 (about even).Changeup 7%Curveball: 7% usage, 80.7 mph, -8.6″ arm side, -6.7″ rise. Michael Harris II: wOBA .322 vs league .316 (about even).Curveball 7%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Michael Harris II's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Michael Harris II's last 40 balls in playHit (16)Out (24)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 111.6 mph at 1°Out: 88.1 mph at 82°Single: 36.3 mph at -73°Out: 100.6 mph at 37°Double: 110.3 mph at 12°Out: 101.9 mph at 24°Single: 96.3 mph at -32°Out: 96.7 mph at 25°Out: 74.8 mph at -1°Out: 99.3 mph at 42°Out: 96.4 mph at -10°Single: 107.7 mph at 10°Out: 61.6 mph at -1°Out: 110.3 mph at 4°Double: 110.8 mph at 16°Out: 90.4 mph at 71°Out: 77.3 mph at 5°Out: 84.6 mph at 63°Out: 85.3 mph at -9°Out: 77.6 mph at -31°Out: 72.3 mph at 49°Single: 109.2 mph at 6°Home run: 101.8 mph at 28°Out: 91.9 mph at 30°Single: 107.9 mph at -2°Single: 78.6 mph at 21°Out: 86.8 mph at 21°Out: 76.0 mph at 2°Out: 101.8 mph at 14°Out: 80.0 mph at -34°Out: 105.3 mph at -6°Single: 77.6 mph at 15°Out: 82.4 mph at -35°Single: 100.1 mph at -15°Out: 93.0 mph at 27°Single: 98.9 mph at 9°Single: 67.0 mph at 26°Single: 90.6 mph at 19°Single: 91.2 mph at -9°Single: 95.7 mph at 4°
48% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot40% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit67.3%67.5%-0.2
2+ total bases40.2%40.2%+0.0
Home run11.9%12.0%-0.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.3
Pitch mix
+1.2
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.9
Pitch mix
+1.3
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
-0.8
Home run
Starter
+0.3
Pitch mix
+0.6
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-1.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Michael Harris II hits
Michael Harris II · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .306 shrunk (raw .349 on 9 PA) · league .274 · 31 pitches seen.306xwOBA .395 shrunk (raw .501 on 10 PA) · league .307 · 32 pitches seen.395xwOBA .212 shrunk (raw .124 on 7 PA) · league .263 · 19 pitches seen.212xwOBA .411 shrunk (raw .462 on 16 PA) · league .342 · 43 pitches seen.411xwOBA .328 shrunk (raw .291 on 19 PA) · league .386 · 43 pitches seen.328xwOBA .279 shrunk (raw .251 on 18 PA) · league .321 · 36 pitches seen.279xwOBA .302 shrunk (raw .298 on 15 PA) · league .308 · 39 pitches seen.302xwOBA .493 shrunk (raw .606 on 15 PA) · league .351 · 30 pitches seen.493xwOBA .379 shrunk (raw .441 on 17 PA) · league .292 · 42 pitches seen.379xwOBA .350 shrunk (raw .326 on 14 PA) · league .377 · 110 pitches seen.350xwOBA .204 shrunk (raw .121 on 10 PA) · league .274 · 52 pitches seen.204xwOBA .212 shrunk (raw .194 on 35 PA) · league .263 · 136 pitches seen.212xwOBA .214 shrunk (raw .189 on 29 PA) · league .274 · 131 pitches seen.214
vs RHP · 744 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 16% of 25 swings · league 22%16%Whiff 0% of 25 swings · league 20%0%Whiff 23% of 13 swings · league 19%23%Whiff 7% of 28 swings · league 10%7%Whiff 8% of 38 swings · league 9%8%Whiff 3% of 29 swings · league 11%3%Whiff 27% of 30 swings · league 14%27%Whiff 13% of 23 swings · league 13%13%Whiff 7% of 30 swings · league 17%7%Whiff 31% of 26 swings · league 28%31%Whiff 27% of 26 swings · league 24%27%Whiff 32% of 68 swings · league 32%32%Whiff 38% of 68 swings · league 49%38%
vs RHP · 744 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 81% of 31 pitches · league 62%81%Swings at 78% of 32 pitches · league 72%78%Swings at 68% of 19 pitches · league 66%68%Swings at 65% of 43 pitches · league 70%65%Swings at 88% of 43 pitches · league 76%88%Swings at 81% of 36 pitches · league 70%81%Swings at 77% of 39 pitches · league 65%77%Swings at 77% of 30 pitches · league 68%77%Swings at 71% of 42 pitches · league 60%71%Swings at 24% of 110 pitches · league 24%24%Swings at 50% of 52 pitches · league 34%50%Swings at 50% of 136 pitches · league 40%50%Swings at 52% of 131 pitches · league 32%52%
vs RHP · 744 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Michael Harris II against each of Eury Pérez's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball29%98.3+12″ / +18″.325.31921.3%22.8%34About league average vs these
Sinker26%97.7+16″ / +14″.337.33117.8%19.5%32About league average vs these
Slider19%89.0+0″ / +5″.363.35817.6%21.8%31About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sweeper12%83.9-7″ / +11″.355.34919.5%23.6%19About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup7%90.2+14″ / +10″.330.32424.2%23.5%44About league average vs these
Curveball7%80.7-9″ / -7″.322.31621.4%25.7%22About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Michael Harris II · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.333.385.500.454.4157.7%7.7%16.0%92.7111.618.2%63.6%27.3%
Last 15 G1440.256.275.462.338.34412.5%2.5%16.9%91.8111.611.8%44.1%35.3%
Last 30 G2781.260.288.506.363.34117.3%3.7%18.7%89.7111.610.9%43.8%37.5%
90 days71217.281.296.486.345.30819.8%2.3%20.7%90.9111.66.5%48.2%32.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 168 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 20%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G37.167.286.167.229.4130.0%14.3%20.0%91.7110.30.0%66.7%33.3%
Last 15 G1123.381.435.381.374.36813.0%8.7%24.4%88.7110.30.0%38.9%44.4%
Last 30 G2040.297.333.378.346.31517.5%5.0%21.1%84.5110.30.0%38.7%41.9%
90 days57113.276.312.429.335.31914.2%4.4%19.8%83.8112.84.4%38.9%32.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 90 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 23%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.278.350.389.375.4145.0%10.0%17.5%92.4111.611.8%64.7%29.4%
Last 15 G1563.300.333.433.351.35312.7%4.8%19.7%90.7111.67.7%42.3%38.5%
Last 30 G30121.272.303.465.358.33217.4%4.1%19.5%88.0111.67.4%42.1%38.9%
90 days79330.279.302.467.341.31217.9%3.0%20.4%88.4112.85.8%45.0%32.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 258 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 21%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 8%
Michael Harris II · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating61Average
Last 100 pitches98trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.342 / .328results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSlider88.5111.61.527Out
Sep 25RHPSweeper86.688.182.003Out
Sep 24RHPSinker90.836.3-73.223Single
Sep 24RHPFastball98.6100.637.521Out
Sep 24RHPSinker89.4110.312.886Double
Sep 24RHPFastball94.0101.9241.020Out
Sep 24RHPFastball95.596.3-32.085Single
Sep 23LHPSweeper83.696.725.387Out
Sep 23LHPFastball91.074.8-1.129Out
Sep 23LHPSweeper82.999.342.102Out
Sep 23RHPCutter97.196.4-10.278Out
Sep 22LHPSinker93.8107.710.876Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25300001
Sep 24534000
Sep 23400000
Sep 22423000
Sep 20400020
Sep 19400000
Sep 18536101
Sep 16411001
Sep 15400001
Sep 14422000

Two strikes

Eury Pérez MIA · RHPwith two strikes
Eury Pérez with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball29%36%20.0%19.3%18.0%
Sinker26%19%13.6%13.3%17.0%
Slider19%16%34.3%21.4%21.1%
Sweeper12%14%50.0%22.6%19.3%
Changeup7%10%40.7%25.0%18.6%
Curveball7%5%27.8%29.2%20.0%
Other0%1%–0.0%21.7%
Michael Harris II bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Michael Harris II with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%42.8%41.0%
Whiff%20.5%21.3%
Contact%79.5%78.7%
Chase%48.4%39.6%
wOBA.234.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes20.2%21.0%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCPower type
wOBA.330
K%18.3%
BB%3.5%
Whiff%11.3%
Barrel%4.8%
Hard-hit%34.4%
Avg EV88.5

Against right-handers, last 90 days

218 PA
wOBA.343
xwOBA vs this mix.308against pitches like his
RV/1000.19
Hard-hit%35.8%
K%19.8%
BB%3.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Eury PérezRHP · MIA vs ATL
5.6projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 23.7 batters over 5.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 19.7%20%≤34 strikeouts: 15.3%15%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 15.7%16%67 strikeouts: 12.5%13%78 strikeouts: 8.7%9%89+ strikeouts: 11.2%11%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 48% (red bars) · under: 52%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%25.4%
BB%11.1%
Whiff%13.8%
Velo92.9
BTB Stuff111
Location97
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball29%14598.211.6%
Sinker26%10097.76.6%
Slider19%9888.921.8%
Sweeper12%11183.921.9%
Changeup7%6390.118.8%
Curveball6%9180.78.8%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199715%10%31%.469
Sep 139624%9%24%.340
Sep 79220%12%28%.522

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Eury Pérez MIA · RHPvsATL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Michael Harris II: every projection we've made →