MLBengine v14
← ATL at MIA, Sep 25, 2026
6:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · MIA · batting 1Otto Lopez
Bats rightTalent grade CBalancedNormal
.297wOBA vs LHP.313xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · ATLRay Kerr
Throws leftBTB Stuff 89Stable
2.2projected K20%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Ray Kerr's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 36% usage, 95.1 mph, +8.6″ arm side, +14.9″ rise. Otto Lopez: wOBA .336 vs league .343 (about even).Fastball 36%Curveball: 33% usage, 81.2 mph, -0.8″ arm side, -3.2″ rise. Otto Lopez: wOBA .318 vs league .325 (about even).Curveball 33%Sinker: 21% usage, 94.7 mph, +14.8″ arm side, +10.4″ rise. Otto Lopez: wOBA .353 vs league .360 (about even).Sinker 21%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Otto Lopez's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Otto Lopez's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 103.9 mph at -22°Out: 91.7 mph at 37°Single: 85.7 mph at 11°Out: 103.5 mph at 0°Out: 93.5 mph at -30°Single: 71.4 mph at 25°Single: 95.2 mph at 6°Out: 95.4 mph at -2°Out: 83.0 mph at 2°Out: 63.1 mph at 11°Single: 64.9 mph at 21°Out: 101.7 mph at -31°Out: 84.8 mph at -18°Out: 102.4 mph at 23°Out: 100.4 mph at -10°Out: 85.0 mph at -17°Home run: 99.4 mph at 23°Out: 103.1 mph at 7°Out: 80.8 mph at 28°Single: 95.6 mph at 17°Double: 100.0 mph at 24°Out: 92.6 mph at -2°Out: 91.2 mph at 59°Single: 100.3 mph at 16°Out: 93.5 mph at 42°Out: 94.7 mph at 29°Single: 99.5 mph at 14°Out: 68.5 mph at 8°Out: 83.8 mph at 27°Out: 99.0 mph at 32°Out: 105.3 mph at 0°Out: 90.9 mph at 64°Out: 94.5 mph at 45°Single: 110.0 mph at 9°Out: 70.8 mph at -27°Single: 91.0 mph at 12°Single: 74.7 mph at 0°Out: 110.8 mph at -8°Single: 80.7 mph at 0°Single: 108.6 mph at 0°
45% hit 95+ mph43% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit68.1%67.8%+0.3
2+ total bases38.3%38.1%+0.1
Home run8.3%8.6%-0.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.7
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.6
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.8
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-1.0
Home run
Starter
+0.7
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-1.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Otto Lopez hits
Otto Lopez · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .311 shrunk (raw .515 on 4 PA) · league .243 · 11 pitches seen.311xwOBA .377 shrunk (raw .570 on 5 PA) · league .296 · 12 pitches seen.377xwOBA .356 shrunk (raw .660 on 4 PA) · league .254 · 14 pitches seen.356xwOBA .260 shrunk (raw .179 on 7 PA) · league .308 · 15 pitches seen.260xwOBA .320 shrunk (raw .249 on 11 PA) · league .385 · 28 pitches seen.320xwOBA .337 shrunk (raw .333 on 8 PA) · league .340 · 29 pitches seen.337xwOBA .277 shrunk (raw .295 on 3 PA) · league .273 · 17 pitches seen.277xwOBA .245 shrunk (raw .066 on 7 PA) · league .350 · 20 pitches seen.245xwOBA .273 shrunk (raw .209 on 5 PA) · league .299 · 14 pitches seen.273xwOBA .316 shrunk (raw .356 on 4 PA) · league .302 · 18 pitches seen.316xwOBA .349 shrunk (raw .355 on 7 PA) · league .346 · 48 pitches seen.349xwOBA .314 shrunk (raw .334 on 15 PA) · league .289 · 71 pitches seen.314xwOBA .256 shrunk (raw .254 on 10 PA) · league .257 · 54 pitches seen.256
vs LHP · 351 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 19%14%Whiff 18% of 11 swings · league 21%18%Whiff 22% of 9 swings · league 23%22%Whiff 0% of 8 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 5% of 19 swings · league 10%5%Whiff 0% of 18 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 8% of 13 swings · league 14%8%Whiff 13% of 8 swings · league 16%13%Whiff 20% of 10 swings · league 25%20%Whiff 10% of 10 swings · league 29%10%Whiff 30% of 23 swings · league 48%30%Whiff 60% of 20 swings · league 34%60%
vs LHP · 351 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 64% of 11 pitches · league 63%64%Swings at 92% of 12 pitches · league 71%92%Swings at 64% of 14 pitches · league 64%64%Swings at 53% of 15 pitches · league 67%53%Swings at 68% of 28 pitches · league 76%68%Swings at 62% of 29 pitches · league 72%62%Swings at 41% of 17 pitches · league 59%41%Swings at 65% of 20 pitches · league 68%65%Swings at 57% of 14 pitches · league 66%57%Swings at 56% of 18 pitches · league 30%56%Swings at 21% of 48 pitches · league 26%21%Swings at 32% of 71 pitches · league 31%32%Swings at 37% of 54 pitches · league 41%37%
vs LHP · 351 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Otto Lopez against each of Ray Kerr's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball36%95.1+9″ / +15″.336.34314.9%18.3%21About league average vs these
Curveball33%81.2-1″ / -3″.318.32527.6%31.1%9About league average vs these
Sinker21%94.7+15″ / +10″.353.36011.3%14.3%20About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Otto Lopez · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G37.286.286.286.257.31814.3%0.0%19.0%84.8103.50.0%16.7%50.0%
Last 15 G917.438.471.562.453.35511.8%5.9%13.5%85.5110.80.0%14.3%35.7%
Last 30 G2045.250.311.425.318.31517.8%8.9%18.2%85.6110.86.1%27.3%24.2%
90 days4191.244.275.390.297.31215.4%5.5%18.4%88.8110.85.6%35.2%29.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 71 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 20%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.167.333.167.260.35313.3%13.3%16.7%91.7103.910.0%60.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1553.286.434.381.378.38715.1%13.2%19.6%91.3110.08.8%50.0%44.1%
Last 30 G3091.312.407.390.372.36113.2%8.8%17.5%90.0110.06.1%47.0%36.4%
90 days74243.276.346.387.343.32111.1%7.8%14.8%87.4110.04.7%39.3%33.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 191 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 20%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.211.318.211.259.34213.6%9.1%17.8%89.1103.96.2%43.8%31.2%
Last 15 G1570.328.443.431.396.37914.3%11.4%17.8%89.6110.86.2%39.6%41.7%
Last 30 G30136.291.375.402.354.34514.7%8.8%17.7%88.5110.86.1%40.4%32.3%
90 days74334.268.326.388.330.31812.3%7.2%15.9%87.8110.85.0%38.2%32.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 262 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 20%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 10%
Otto Lopez · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating63Average
Last 100 pitches96trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.334 / .329results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSlider86.5103.9-22.168Out
Sep 25LHPSinker94.091.737.061Out
Sep 25LHPCurveball81.285.711.593Single
Sep 24LHPFastball92.5103.50.429Out
Sep 24LHPSlider82.893.5-30.070Out
Sep 24LHPChangeup81.071.425.890Single
Sep 23RHPFastball93.195.26.484Single
Sep 23RHPFastball94.395.4-2.321Force out
Sep 23RHPChangeup86.183.02.269Out
Sep 22LHPSplitter82.763.111.186Out
Sep 22RHPSweeper87.864.921.558Single
Sep 22RHPFastball99.1101.7-31.076Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25411010
Sep 24411010
Sep 23411001
Sep 22611001
Sep 20400001
Sep 19614121
Sep 18423000
Sep 16522001
Sep 15500021
Sep 14500003

Two strikes

Ray Kerr ATL · LHPwith two strikes
Ray Kerr with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball36%43%27.3%26.1%18.6%
Curveball33%25%33.3%23.1%21.2%
Offspeed7%21%25.0%9.1%7.7%
Sinker21%11%0.0%16.7%17.7%
Otto Lopez bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Otto Lopez with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%36.0%41.5%
Whiff%18.5%21.6%
Contact%81.5%78.4%
Chase%42.8%39.9%
wOBA.238.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes15.9%18.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.329
K%12.9%
BB%7.0%
Whiff%7.6%
Barrel%4.1%
Hard-hit%29.7%
Avg EV87.8

Against left-handers, last 90 days

91 PA
wOBA.297
xwOBA vs this mix.313against pitches like his
RV/100-0.71
Hard-hit%27.8%
K%15.9%
BB%6.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Ray KerrLHP · ATL vs MIA
2.2projected strikeouts · likely 0 to 4 · 11.3 batters over 2.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 81.6%82%≤34 strikeouts: 11.0%11%45 strikeouts: 4.8%5%56 strikeouts: 1.8%2%67 strikeouts: 0.6%1%78 strikeouts: 0.1%0%89+ strikeouts: 0.1%0%9+book 2.5
Over 2.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 62%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.0%
BB%1.8%
Whiff%11.7%
Velo89.1
BTB Stuff89
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball36%10495.012.5%
Curveball33%7681.118.6%
Sinker21%8494.60.0%
Offspeed7%–80.37.7%
Cutter4%8690.314.3%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Ray Kerr ATL · LHPvsMIA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Otto Lopez: every projection we've made →