MLBengine v14
← BAL at NYY, Sep 25, 2026
3:10 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · lineup confirmed
Hitter · NYY · batting 8Austin Wells
Bats leftTalent grade AvgBalancedHot
.335wOBA vs RHP.326xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · BALBrandon Young
Throws rightBTB Stuff 96Trending Up
5.6projected K21%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Brandon Young's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 41% usage, 94.6 mph, +6.0″ arm side, +17.5″ rise. Austin Wells: wOBA .357 vs league .353 (about even).Fastball 41%Splitter: 18% usage, 83.9 mph, +8.3″ arm side, +1.2″ rise. Austin Wells: wOBA .289 vs league .286 (about even).Splitter 18%Slider: 16% usage, 85.2 mph, -2.2″ arm side, +4.1″ rise. Austin Wells: wOBA .355 vs league .352 (about even).Slider 16%Sinker: 14% usage, 94.2 mph, +14.8″ arm side, +10.9″ rise. Austin Wells: wOBA .356 vs league .352 (about even).Sinker 14%Curveball: 12% usage, 75.5 mph, -13.3″ arm side, -15.2″ rise. Austin Wells: wOBA .331 vs league .328 (about even).Curveball 12%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Austin Wells's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit55.6%53.2%+2.4
2+ total bases35.0%32.0%+3.0
Home run15.7%12.5%+3.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.8
Pitch mix
+0.6
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+1.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.0
Pitch mix
+0.5
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+1.7
Home run
Starter
+1.1
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+1.9

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Austin Wells against each of Brandon Young's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball41%94.6+6″ / +18″.357.35317.3%16.4%47About league average vs these
Splitter18%83.9+8″ / +1″.289.28628.2%27.1%12About league average vs these
Slider16%85.2-2″ / +4″.355.35226.7%24.7%15About league average vs these
Sinker14%94.2+15″ / +11″.356.35216.3%15.3%45About league average vs these
Curveball12%75.5-13″ / -15″.331.32828.1%26.1%3Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormHot
Contact rating53Average
Last 100 pitches100trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.317 / .319results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run4/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

Brandon Young BAL · RHPwith two strikes
Brandon Young with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball41%43%14.6%12.0%18.0%
Splitter18%22%39.6%19.4%19.0%
Slider16%21%37.0%25.8%21.1%
Sinker14%8%4.3%11.8%17.0%
Curveball12%7%50.0%25.0%20.0%
Austin Wells bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Austin Wells with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%42.8%41.0%
Whiff%23.2%21.3%
Contact%76.8%78.7%
Chase%35.5%39.6%
wOBA.254.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes21.9%20.0%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.317
K%25.7%
BB%9.9%
Whiff%10.4%
Barrel%5.0%
Hard-hit%26.2%
Avg EV88.8

Against right-handers, last 90 days

165 PA
wOBA.335
xwOBA vs this mix.326against pitches like his
RV/1000.79
Hard-hit%26.0%
K%24.3%
BB%11.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Brandon YoungRHP · BAL vs NYY
5.6projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 23.9 batters over 5.7 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 19.1%19%≤34 strikeouts: 15.0%15%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 15.7%16%67 strikeouts: 12.7%13%78 strikeouts: 8.9%9%89+ strikeouts: 11.7%12%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 49% (red bars) · under: 51%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%21.4%
BB%9.0%
Whiff%11.9%
Velo88.9
BTB Stuff96
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball41%10494.510.0%
Splitter18%9983.818.9%
Slider16%8685.219.4%
Sinker14%8194.13.1%
Curveball12%9275.48.5%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 208441%17%18%.281
Sep 1410625%10%25%.379
Sep 8869%8%18%.555

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Brandon Young BAL · RHPvsNYY lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

4 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameBAL @ NYY →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Austin Wells: every projection we've made →