Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Coby Mayo's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.
| Market | BTB | Without the matchup | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ hit | 65.0% | 62.7% | +2.3 |
| 2+ total bases | 46.2% | 43.3% | +2.9 |
| Home run | 23.5% | 20.2% | +3.2 |
Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.
Pitch by pitch
Coby Mayo against each of Ryan Yarbrough's pitches| His pitch | Usage | Velo | Movement | His wOBA | League | His whiff% | League | Sample | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cutter | 27% | 85.1 | +3″ / +9″ | .380 | .356 | 18.8% | 18.0% | 9 | About league average vs these |
| Changeup | 22% | 78.0 | +18″ / +1″ | .326 | .302 | 36.2% | 28.6% | 13 | About league average vs these |
| Sweeper | 21% | 71.7 | -16″ / +7″ | .333 | .310 | 31.3% | 31.2% | 4 | Little history vs this shape |
| Sinker | 15% | 86.8 | +17″ / +6″ | .341 | .318 | 31.1% | 29.6% | 23 | About league average vs these |
| Fastball | 15% | 87.1 | +14″ / +12″ | .352 | .329 | 27.3% | 26.0% | 27 | About league average vs these |
Statcast
opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonightNo pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.
Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.
Two strikes
| Pitch | Overall | 2 strikes | Whiff% | Put-away | League put-away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sweeper | 21% | 27% | 22.2% | 20.5% | 20.5% |
| Changeup | 22% | 25% | 9.1% | 14.6% | 18.3% |
| Cutter | 27% | 23% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 17.9% |
| Fastball | 15% | 17% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 18.6% |
| Sinker | 15% | 7% | 0.0% | 16.7% | 17.7% |
| Other | 0% | 1% | – | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| With two strikes | Him | League |
|---|---|---|
| K% | 45.1% | 41.5% |
| Whiff% | 24.6% | 21.6% |
| Contact% | 75.4% | 78.4% |
| Chase% | 39.5% | 39.9% |
| wOBA | .249 | .245 |
| Whiff vs his put-away shapes | 23.3% | 20.3% |
The hitter
season-level talent readAgainst left-handers, last 90 days
97 PATalent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.
| Date | Pitches | K% | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29 | 60 | 13% | 10% | 27% | .357 |
| Jul 26 | 51 | 13% | 6% | 6% | .491 |
Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.
6 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight
Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.