MLBengine v14
← BAL at NYY, Sep 25, 2026
3:10 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · lineup confirmed
Hitter · NYY · batting 4Luis García Jr.
Bats leftTalent grade APowerCold
.395wOBA vs RHP.367xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · BALBrandon Young
Throws rightBTB Stuff 96Trending Up
5.6projected K21%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Brandon Young's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 41% usage, 94.6 mph, +6.0″ arm side, +17.5″ rise. Luis García Jr.: wOBA .383 vs league .353 (hitter's edge).Fastball 41%Splitter: 18% usage, 83.9 mph, +8.3″ arm side, +1.2″ rise. Luis García Jr.: wOBA .314 vs league .286 (hitter's edge).Splitter 18%Slider: 16% usage, 85.2 mph, -2.2″ arm side, +4.1″ rise. Luis García Jr.: wOBA .381 vs league .352 (hitter's edge).Slider 16%Sinker: 14% usage, 94.2 mph, +14.8″ arm side, +10.9″ rise. Luis García Jr.: wOBA .382 vs league .352 (hitter's edge).Sinker 14%Curveball: 12% usage, 75.5 mph, -13.3″ arm side, -15.2″ rise. Luis García Jr.: wOBA .357 vs league .328 (hitter's edge).Curveball 12%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Luis García Jr.'s wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit72.0%68.2%+3.8
2+ total bases50.5%45.1%+5.4
Home run21.6%16.2%+5.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.0
Pitch mix
+1.8
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+1.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.6
Pitch mix
+2.1
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+1.9
Home run
Starter
+1.8
Pitch mix
+1.2
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+2.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Luis García Jr. against each of Brandon Young's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball41%94.6+6″ / +18″.383.35314.0%16.4%36About league average vs these
Splitter18%83.9+8″ / +1″.314.28623.6%27.1%35About league average vs these
Slider16%85.2-2″ / +4″.381.35219.0%24.7%23About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker14%94.2+15″ / +11″.382.35213.2%15.3%44About league average vs these
Curveball12%75.5-13″ / -15″.357.32820.2%26.1%7Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormCold
Contact rating81Excellent
Last 100 pitches0trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.377 / .353running 24 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

Brandon Young BAL · RHPwith two strikes
Brandon Young with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball41%43%14.6%12.0%18.0%
Splitter18%22%39.6%19.4%19.0%
Slider16%21%37.0%25.8%21.1%
Sinker14%8%4.3%11.8%17.0%
Curveball12%7%50.0%25.0%20.0%
Luis García Jr. bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Luis García Jr. with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%41.5%41.0%
Whiff%21.2%21.3%
Contact%78.8%78.7%
Chase%45.4%39.6%
wOBA.264.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.8%20.0%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.352
K%19.8%
BB%4.9%
Whiff%10.0%
Barrel%9.8%
Hard-hit%34.1%
Avg EV90.5

Against right-handers, last 90 days

221 PA
wOBA.395
xwOBA vs this mix.367against pitches like his
RV/1001.57
Hard-hit%37.1%
K%21.0%
BB%4.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Brandon YoungRHP · BAL vs NYY
5.6projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 23.9 batters over 5.7 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 19.1%19%≤34 strikeouts: 15.0%15%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 15.7%16%67 strikeouts: 12.7%13%78 strikeouts: 8.9%9%89+ strikeouts: 11.7%12%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 49% (red bars) · under: 51%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%21.4%
BB%9.0%
Whiff%11.9%
Velo88.9
BTB Stuff96
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball41%10494.510.0%
Splitter18%9983.818.9%
Slider16%8685.219.4%
Sinker14%8194.13.1%
Curveball12%9275.48.5%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 208441%17%18%.281
Sep 1410625%10%25%.379
Sep 8869%8%18%.555

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Brandon Young BAL · RHPvsNYY lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

4 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameBAL @ NYY →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Luis García Jr.: every projection we've made →