MLBengine v14
← CHC at BOS, Sep 25, 2026
4:35 PM CT · Fenway Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · CHC · batting 8Carson Kelly
Bats rightTalent grade CContactNormal
.304wOBA vs RHP.296xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · BOSBrayan Bello
Throws rightBTB Stuff 93Trending Up
4.2projected K22%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Brayan Bello's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 34% usage, 96.0 mph, +16.2″ arm side, +6.4″ rise. Carson Kelly: wOBA .335 vs league .340 (about even).Sinker 34%Changeup: 24% usage, 89.6 mph, +16.2″ arm side, +5.9″ rise. Carson Kelly: wOBA .312 vs league .317 (about even).Changeup 24%Sweeper: 16% usage, 86.4 mph, -9.7″ arm side, -3.4″ rise. Carson Kelly: wOBA .280 vs league .285 (about even).Sweeper 16%Cutter: 13% usage, 88.0 mph, 0.0″ arm side, +1.9″ rise. Carson Kelly: wOBA .302 vs league .306 (about even).Cutter 13%Fastball: 13% usage, 96.5 mph, +6.0″ arm side, +12.2″ rise. Carson Kelly: wOBA .354 vs league .358 (about even).Fastball 13%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Carson Kelly's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit59.9%59.7%+0.2
2+ total bases31.0%31.5%-0.5
Home run7.1%9.0%-1.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.1
Pitch mix
+0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
+0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.7
Pitch mix
+0.0
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
-0.2
Home run
Starter
-1.3
Pitch mix
+0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-0.8

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Carson Kelly against each of Brayan Bello's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker34%96.0+16″ / +6″.335.3406.5%11.9%36About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup24%89.6+16″ / +6″.312.31718.6%23.4%21About league average vs these
Sweeper16%86.4-10″ / -3″.280.28520.6%30.4%20About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Cutter13%88.00″ / +2″.302.30618.6%30.8%28About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Fastball13%96.5+6″ / +12″.354.3589.9%17.4%36About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormNormal
Contact rating43Below average
Last 100 pitches44steady
wOBA / xwOBA.309 / .309results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

Brayan Bello BOS · RHPwith two strikes
Brayan Bello with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup24%29%19.6%12.0%18.6%
Sinker34%26%5.9%20.0%17.0%
Sweeper16%22%35.7%21.8%19.3%
Fastball13%18%16.7%17.4%18.0%
Cutter13%6%40.0%28.6%17.9%
Carson Kelly bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Carson Kelly with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%39.5%42.4%
Whiff%17.1%22.2%
Contact%82.9%77.8%
Chase%36.5%39.9%
wOBA.222.237
Whiff vs his put-away shapes16.2%21.0%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCContact type
wOBA.323
K%16.9%
BB%9.1%
Whiff%7.8%
Barrel%4.0%
Hard-hit%25.2%
Avg EV85.4

Against right-handers, last 90 days

147 PA
wOBA.304
xwOBA vs this mix.296against pitches like his
RV/100-0.46
Hard-hit%24.6%
K%15.9%
BB%8.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Brayan BelloRHP · BOS vs CHC
4.2projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.0 batters over 4.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 39.7%40%≤34 strikeouts: 19.3%19%45 strikeouts: 16.3%16%56 strikeouts: 11.4%11%67 strikeouts: 6.8%7%78 strikeouts: 3.6%4%89+ strikeouts: 2.9%3%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 41% (red bars) · under: 59%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%22.3%
BB%5.3%
Whiff%10.8%
Velo92.0
BTB Stuff93
Location104
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker36%10396.03.7%
Changeup23%8389.511.5%
Sweeper15%9286.316.5%
Cutter13%10288.018.9%
Fastball13%7596.47.8%
Other1%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199338%12%14%.224
Sep 710332%11%18%.259
Sep 2690%7%29%.515

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Brayan Bello BOS · RHPvsCHC lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

0 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCHC @ BOS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Carson Kelly: every projection we've made →