MLBengine v14
← CHC at BOS, Sep 25, 2026
4:35 PM CT · Fenway Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · BOS · batting 2Jahmai Jones
Bats rightTalent grade ABalancedCold
.415wOBA vs LHP.359xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · CHCDavid Peterson
Throws leftBTB Stuff 96Trending Up
5.1projected K21%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
David Peterson's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 31% usage, 92.3 mph, +13.6″ arm side, +8.4″ rise. Jahmai Jones: wOBA .377 vs league .361 (hitter's edge).Sinker 31%Fastball: 26% usage, 92.8 mph, +2.3″ arm side, +11.6″ rise. Jahmai Jones: wOBA .360 vs league .343 (hitter's edge).Fastball 26%Slider: 19% usage, 86.6 mph, -2.8″ arm side, +3.1″ rise. Jahmai Jones: wOBA .327 vs league .310 (hitter's edge).Slider 19%Changeup: 15% usage, 85.6 mph, +13.2″ arm side, +3.6″ rise. Jahmai Jones: wOBA .336 vs league .320 (hitter's edge).Changeup 15%Curveball: 8% usage, 80.0 mph, -4.1″ arm side, -8.6″ rise. Jahmai Jones: wOBA .319 vs league .303 (hitter's edge).Curveball 8%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jahmai Jones's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit58.3%58.3%0.0
2+ total bases35.5%36.5%-1.1
Home run13.1%15.9%-2.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.5
Pitch mix
+0.7
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.2
Pitch mix
+0.7
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.7
Home run
Starter
-1.8
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-1.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Jahmai Jones against each of David Peterson's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker31%92.3+14″ / +8″.377.36122.8%14.5%12About league average vs these
Fastball26%92.8+2″ / +12″.360.34326.7%17.6%18About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider19%86.6-3″ / +3″.327.31034.2%25.7%11About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup15%85.6+13″ / +4″.336.32035.4%28.2%9About league average vs these
Curveball8%80.0-4″ / -9″.319.30338.8%29.6%3Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormCold
Contact rating86Excellent
Last 100 pitches4trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.430 / .360running 70 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

David Peterson CHC · LHPwith two strikes
David Peterson with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball26%30%20.3%17.7%18.6%
Slider19%30%25.0%17.1%21.6%
Sinker31%18%14.6%13.6%17.7%
Changeup15%15%18.5%19.6%18.3%
Curveball8%7%50.0%32.0%21.2%
Other0%0%–100.0%14.3%
Jahmai Jones bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Jahmai Jones with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%47.4%41.5%
Whiff%26.5%21.6%
Contact%73.5%78.4%
Chase%35.2%39.9%
wOBA.248.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes24.7%20.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeABalanced type
wOBA.400
K%24.9%
BB%10.4%
Whiff%12.5%
Barrel%7.4%
Hard-hit%29.3%
Avg EV90.0

Against left-handers, last 90 days

69 PA
wOBA.415
xwOBA vs this mix.359against pitches like his
RV/1001.73
Hard-hit%22.7%
K%31.1%
BB%8.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
David PetersonLHP · CHC vs BOS
5.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 22.5 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 25.7%26%≤34 strikeouts: 17.2%17%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.8%15%67 strikeouts: 10.7%11%78 strikeouts: 6.8%7%89+ strikeouts: 7.4%7%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 40% (red bars) · under: 60%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.9%
BB%10.2%
Whiff%9.7%
Velo89.2
BTB Stuff96
Location98
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker31%8892.26.5%
Fastball26%10092.810.7%
Slider20%9986.513.8%
Changeup15%10285.59.4%
Curveball9%9279.87.6%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 208332%12%23%.205
Sep 148530%14%17%.209
Sep 88320%7%15%.392

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

David Peterson CHC · LHPvsBOS lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCHC @ BOS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jahmai Jones: every projection we've made →