MLBengine v14
← CHC at BOS, Sep 25, 2026
4:35 PM CT · Fenway Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · BOS · batting 3Wilyer Abreu
Bats leftTalent grade BPowerNormal
.343wOBA vs LHP.344xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · CHCDavid Peterson
Throws leftBTB Stuff 96Trending Up
5.1projected K21%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
David Peterson's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 31% usage, 92.3 mph, +13.6″ arm side, +8.4″ rise. Wilyer Abreu: wOBA .332 vs league .324 (about even).Sinker 31%Fastball: 26% usage, 92.8 mph, +2.3″ arm side, +11.6″ rise. Wilyer Abreu: wOBA .351 vs league .343 (about even).Fastball 26%Slider: 19% usage, 86.6 mph, -2.8″ arm side, +3.1″ rise. Wilyer Abreu: wOBA .321 vs league .313 (about even).Slider 19%Changeup: 15% usage, 85.6 mph, +13.2″ arm side, +3.6″ rise. Wilyer Abreu: wOBA .318 vs league .310 (about even).Changeup 15%Curveball: 8% usage, 80.0 mph, -4.1″ arm side, -8.6″ rise. Wilyer Abreu: wOBA .297 vs league .289 (about even).Curveball 8%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Wilyer Abreu's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit61.4%61.4%-0.0
2+ total bases37.7%39.6%-1.9
Home run11.9%16.9%-5.0
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.4
Pitch mix
+1.6
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
-2.8
Pitch mix
+1.5
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.5
Home run
Starter
-4.3
Pitch mix
+0.7
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-1.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Wilyer Abreu against each of David Peterson's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker31%92.3+14″ / +8″.332.32414.2%13.5%22About league average vs these
Fastball26%92.8+2″ / +12″.351.34321.6%20.7%25About league average vs these
Slider19%86.6-3″ / +3″.321.31322.0%29.9%22About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup15%85.6+13″ / +4″.318.31025.8%28.8%12About league average vs these
Curveball8%80.0-4″ / -9″.297.28919.0%26.0%11About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormNormal
Contact rating90Top tier
Last 100 pitches16trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.345 / .365running 20 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

David Peterson CHC · LHPwith two strikes
David Peterson with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball26%30%20.3%17.7%18.6%
Slider19%30%25.0%17.1%21.6%
Sinker31%18%14.6%13.6%17.7%
Changeup15%15%18.5%19.6%18.3%
Curveball8%7%50.0%32.0%21.2%
Other0%0%–100.0%14.3%
Wilyer Abreu bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Wilyer Abreu with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%36.9%44.1%
Whiff%18.5%22.7%
Contact%81.5%77.3%
Chase%36.5%38.2%
wOBA.244.224
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.2%23.5%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.343
K%22.5%
BB%11.4%
Whiff%10.4%
Barrel%7.9%
Hard-hit%29.6%
Avg EV89.8

Against left-handers, last 90 days

111 PA
wOBA.343
xwOBA vs this mix.344against pitches like his
RV/1000.71
Hard-hit%26.5%
K%19.0%
BB%11.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
David PetersonLHP · CHC vs BOS
5.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 22.5 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 25.7%26%≤34 strikeouts: 17.2%17%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.8%15%67 strikeouts: 10.7%11%78 strikeouts: 6.8%7%89+ strikeouts: 7.4%7%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 40% (red bars) · under: 60%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.9%
BB%10.2%
Whiff%9.7%
Velo89.2
BTB Stuff96
Location98
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker31%8892.26.5%
Fastball26%10092.810.7%
Slider20%9986.513.8%
Changeup15%10285.59.4%
Curveball9%9279.87.6%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 208332%12%23%.205
Sep 148530%14%17%.209
Sep 88320%7%15%.392

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

David Peterson CHC · LHPvsBOS lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCHC @ BOS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Wilyer Abreu: every projection we've made →