MLBengine v14
← CIN at TOR, Sep 25, 2026
6:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · lineup confirmed
Hitter · CIN · batting 5Eugenio Suárez
Bats rightTalent grade BPowerNormal
.347wOBA vs RHP.323xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · TORJosé Soriano
Throws rightBTB Stuff 100Stable
5.1projected K20%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
José Soriano's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 34% usage, 96.1 mph, +15.2″ arm side, +4.8″ rise. Eugenio Suárez: wOBA .347 vs league .337 (about even).Sinker 34%Curveball: 27% usage, 85.5 mph, -13.0″ arm side, -6.8″ rise. Eugenio Suárez: wOBA .289 vs league .279 (about even).Curveball 27%Fastball: 18% usage, 96.7 mph, +9.4″ arm side, +13.6″ rise. Eugenio Suárez: wOBA .364 vs league .353 (about even).Fastball 18%Splitter: 17% usage, 92.2 mph, +13.9″ arm side, +1.6″ rise. Eugenio Suárez: wOBA .305 vs league .294 (about even).Splitter 17%Slider: 4% usage, 90.4 mph, -1.2″ arm side, +3.0″ rise. Eugenio Suárez: wOBA .317 vs league .306 (about even).Slider 4%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Eugenio Suárez's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Eugenio Suárez's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 103.4 mph at 19°Home run: 105.3 mph at 31°Out: 66.5 mph at 6°Single: 95.1 mph at 15°Out: 72.4 mph at 66°Out: 88.6 mph at 44°Home run: 103.9 mph at 29°Out: 81.2 mph at -17°Out: 91.3 mph at 7°Out: 79.5 mph at 35°Out: 97.0 mph at 27°Out: 91.2 mph at 22°Out: 83.9 mph at -31°Single: 83.3 mph at 18°Out: 100.4 mph at 20°Out: 95.4 mph at -3°Out: 86.3 mph at 60°Out: 78.3 mph at 72°Single: 86.6 mph at 8°Out: 85.0 mph at 35°Out: 93.7 mph at -9°Out: 79.2 mph at 84°Home run: 105.3 mph at 32°Home run: 104.0 mph at 34°Single: 73.8 mph at 19°Single: 67.2 mph at 28°Out: 86.4 mph at 52°Out: 106.9 mph at 40°Out: 95.4 mph at -4°Out: 87.2 mph at 24°Out: 95.1 mph at 77°Home run: 104.4 mph at 34°Out: 79.0 mph at 58°Single: 97.8 mph at 12°Out: 74.3 mph at 53°Out: 78.5 mph at -35°Double: 106.4 mph at 25°Home run: 105.7 mph at 29°Out: 72.0 mph at 56°Out: 101.1 mph at 54°
43% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit52.4%52.9%-0.4
2+ total bases32.9%34.6%-1.8
Home run15.3%18.4%-3.0
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.9
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
-2.4
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.6
Home run
Starter
-3.6
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.6

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Eugenio Suárez hits
Eugenio Suárez · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .243 shrunk (raw .181 on 6 PA) · league .274 · 27 pitches seen.243xwOBA .315 shrunk (raw .325 on 10 PA) · league .307 · 36 pitches seen.315xwOBA .264 shrunk (raw .268 on 5 PA) · league .263 · 30 pitches seen.264xwOBA .328 shrunk (raw .312 on 10 PA) · league .342 · 38 pitches seen.328xwOBA .407 shrunk (raw .416 on 27 PA) · league .386 · 54 pitches seen.407xwOBA .421 shrunk (raw .491 on 17 PA) · league .321 · 44 pitches seen.421xwOBA .248 shrunk (raw .158 on 8 PA) · league .308 · 23 pitches seen.248xwOBA .401 shrunk (raw .451 on 12 PA) · league .351 · 47 pitches seen.401xwOBA .382 shrunk (raw .439 on 19 PA) · league .292 · 55 pitches seen.382xwOBA .464 shrunk (raw .530 on 16 PA) · league .377 · 68 pitches seen.464xwOBA .202 shrunk (raw .129 on 12 PA) · league .274 · 74 pitches seen.202xwOBA .238 shrunk (raw .205 on 9 PA) · league .263 · 60 pitches seen.238xwOBA .249 shrunk (raw .243 on 47 PA) · league .274 · 222 pitches seen.249
vs RHP · 778 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 24% of 17 swings · league 22%24%Whiff 32% of 28 swings · league 20%32%Whiff 38% of 16 swings · league 19%38%Whiff 4% of 27 swings · league 10%4%Whiff 7% of 42 swings · league 9%7%Whiff 22% of 32 swings · league 11%22%Whiff 13% of 16 swings · league 14%13%Whiff 12% of 34 swings · league 13%12%Whiff 18% of 34 swings · league 17%18%Whiff 0% of 10 swings · league 28%0%Whiff 39% of 18 swings · league 24%39%Whiff 36% of 25 swings · league 32%36%Whiff 62% of 71 swings · league 49%62%
vs RHP · 778 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 63% of 27 pitches · league 62%63%Swings at 78% of 36 pitches · league 72%78%Swings at 53% of 30 pitches · league 66%53%Swings at 71% of 38 pitches · league 70%71%Swings at 78% of 54 pitches · league 76%78%Swings at 73% of 44 pitches · league 70%73%Swings at 70% of 23 pitches · league 65%70%Swings at 72% of 47 pitches · league 68%72%Swings at 62% of 55 pitches · league 60%62%Swings at 15% of 68 pitches · league 24%15%Swings at 24% of 74 pitches · league 34%24%Swings at 42% of 60 pitches · league 40%42%Swings at 32% of 222 pitches · league 32%32%
vs RHP · 778 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Eugenio Suárez against each of José Soriano's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker34%96.1+15″ / +5″.347.33714.4%13.6%48About league average vs these
Curveball27%85.5-13″ / -7″.289.27941.6%33.0%17About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Fastball18%96.7+9″ / +14″.364.35318.5%16.8%57About league average vs these
Splitter17%92.2+14″ / +2″.305.29431.7%27.3%27About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider4%90.4-1″ / +3″.317.30636.5%28.5%28About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Eugenio Suárez · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.333.385.833.500.48623.1%0.0%20.0%93.1105.322.2%55.6%55.6%
Last 15 G1335.250.314.625.391.41634.3%2.9%29.6%92.5106.925.0%55.0%50.0%
Last 30 G2772.238.333.540.372.38329.2%6.9%26.5%88.2106.916.7%40.5%40.5%
90 days67199.237.327.538.367.33733.2%8.5%27.6%90.0110.516.7%46.3%44.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 108 balls in play
Ground 24%Line drive 25%Fly ball 37%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G47.000.286.000.200.24342.9%14.3%38.5%73.079.50.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1125.167.400.333.348.34620.0%24.0%20.0%84.7104.07.7%15.4%23.1%
Last 30 G2147.182.426.364.370.36525.5%27.7%29.1%87.1105.79.5%23.8%33.3%
90 days4081.145.346.306.309.32935.8%22.2%36.8%89.0111.315.2%33.3%36.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 33 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 21%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 21%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.235.350.588.395.40130.0%5.0%26.3%89.5105.318.2%45.5%45.5%
Last 15 G1560.220.350.520.373.38728.3%11.7%25.9%89.5106.918.2%39.4%39.4%
Last 30 G30119.219.370.479.371.37627.7%15.1%27.5%87.8106.914.3%34.9%38.1%
90 days70280.213.332.477.350.33433.9%12.5%30.3%89.8111.316.3%43.3%42.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 141 balls in play
Ground 28%Line drive 24%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 16%
Eugenio Suárez · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating72Above average
Last 100 pitches42trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.348 / .337results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSinker95.9103.419.557Single
Sep 25RHPCurveball85.5105.3311.660Home run
Sep 25LHPCutter90.666.56.171Out
Sep 24RHPSplitter88.295.115.838Single
Sep 24RHPFastball91.472.466.004Out
Sep 22RHPSinker92.888.644.003Out
Sep 22RHPSlider88.3103.9291.539Home run
Sep 22RHPSinker93.981.2-17.072Force out
Sep 22RHPCurveball78.791.37.427Out
Sep 19LHPChangeup79.579.535.106Out
Sep 19RHPFastball98.597.027.494Out
Sep 18RHPSinker92.191.222.185Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25425101
Sep 24411001
Sep 23400003
Sep 22414100
Sep 19400011
Sep 18411001
Sep 16400011
Sep 15400003
Sep 14311000
Sep 13414100

Two strikes

José Soriano TOR · RHPwith two strikes
José Soriano with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Curveball27%29%32.8%24.1%20.0%
Fastball18%23%14.8%16.7%18.0%
Sinker34%22%9.8%10.7%17.0%
Splitter17%19%20.0%15.3%19.0%
Slider4%7%27.3%10.7%21.1%
Other0%0%–0.0%21.7%
Eugenio Suárez bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Eugenio Suárez with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%53.7%42.4%
Whiff%27.3%22.2%
Contact%72.7%77.8%
Chase%33.7%39.9%
wOBA.232.237
Whiff vs his put-away shapes26.7%21.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.349
K%33.2%
BB%11.8%
Whiff%13.0%
Barrel%7.7%
Hard-hit%22.3%
Avg EV89.8

Against right-handers, last 90 days

200 PA
wOBA.347
xwOBA vs this mix.323against pitches like his
RV/1000.68
Hard-hit%23.9%
K%32.9%
BB%12.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
José SorianoRHP · TOR vs CIN
5.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 23.1 batters over 5.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 25.0%25%≤34 strikeouts: 17.0%17%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.9%15%67 strikeouts: 10.9%11%78 strikeouts: 7.0%7%89+ strikeouts: 7.8%8%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 41% (red bars) · under: 59%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%19.8%
BB%7.6%
Whiff%10.2%
Velo92.4
BTB Stuff100
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker34%9896.15.8%
Curveball27%10285.417.8%
Fastball18%9296.68.1%
Splitter17%11092.29.5%
Slider4%10390.29.1%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 198035%16%22%.365
Sep 149020%8%20%.236
Sep 88911%5%26%.307

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

José Soriano TOR · RHPvsCIN lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

4 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCIN @ TOR →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Eugenio Suárez: every projection we've made →