MLBengine v14
← CIN at TOR, Sep 25, 2026
6:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · lineup confirmed
Hitter · CIN · batting 8Jose Trevino
Bats rightTalent grade FBalancedCold
.310wOBA vs RHP.237xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · TORJosé Soriano
Throws rightBTB Stuff 100Stable
5.1projected K20%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
José Soriano's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 34% usage, 96.1 mph, +15.2″ arm side, +4.8″ rise. Jose Trevino: wOBA .336 vs league .337 (about even).Sinker 34%Curveball: 27% usage, 85.5 mph, -13.0″ arm side, -6.8″ rise. Jose Trevino: wOBA .278 vs league .279 (about even).Curveball 27%Fastball: 18% usage, 96.7 mph, +9.4″ arm side, +13.6″ rise. Jose Trevino: wOBA .352 vs league .353 (about even).Fastball 18%Splitter: 17% usage, 92.2 mph, +13.9″ arm side, +1.6″ rise. Jose Trevino: wOBA .294 vs league .294 (about even).Splitter 17%Slider: 4% usage, 90.4 mph, -1.2″ arm side, +3.0″ rise. Jose Trevino: wOBA .305 vs league .306 (about even).Slider 4%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jose Trevino's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jose Trevino's last 40 balls in playHit (8)Out (32)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 100.5 mph at -24°Single: 89.2 mph at 15°Out: 91.4 mph at 34°Out: 84.7 mph at 26°Out: 95.8 mph at -16°Single: 93.4 mph at 12°Out: 81.0 mph at 24°Out: 83.2 mph at -44°Out: 81.6 mph at 48°Out: 66.2 mph at -72°Single: 71.8 mph at 23°Out: 59.9 mph at -50°Out: 89.7 mph at 29°Out: 90.9 mph at 5°Out: 23.4 mph at 20°Out: 67.6 mph at -7°Out: 56.0 mph at 15°Out: 93.4 mph at -3°Out: 98.4 mph at -24°Out: 90.2 mph at -19°Single: 99.0 mph at 8°Out: 105.6 mph at 17°Out: 73.4 mph at -41°Single: 97.6 mph at 8°Out: 95.9 mph at -31°Out: 100.4 mph at 6°Out: 73.3 mph at 13°Out: 79.3 mph at -41°Single: 82.7 mph at 13°Out: 78.0 mph at 30°Home run: 102.8 mph at 28°Out: 77.5 mph at -39°Single: 99.1 mph at 3°Out: 91.9 mph at 31°Out: 68.3 mph at -25°Out: 71.5 mph at -11°Out: 81.3 mph at 46°Out: 93.5 mph at -13°Out: 87.7 mph at 21°Out: 92.4 mph at 27°
25% hit 95+ mph45% in the sweet spot20% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit58.0%57.9%+0.1
2+ total bases30.7%31.1%-0.4
Home run6.3%7.3%-1.0
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.0
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.6
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
+0.3
Home run
Starter
-1.2
Pitch mix
+0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Jose Trevino hits
Jose Trevino · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .285 shrunk (raw .308 on 6 PA) · league .274 · 15 pitches seen.285xwOBA .293 shrunk (raw .236 on 3 PA) · league .307 · 10 pitches seen.293xwOBA .247 shrunk (raw .148 on 2 PA) · league .263 · 5 pitches seen.247xwOBA .372 shrunk (raw .433 on 6 PA) · league .342 · 19 pitches seen.372xwOBA .273 shrunk (raw .137 on 10 PA) · league .386 · 21 pitches seen.273xwOBA .280 shrunk (raw .209 on 7 PA) · league .321 · 19 pitches seen.280xwOBA .292 shrunk (raw .230 on 3 PA) · league .308 · 11 pitches seen.292xwOBA .395 shrunk (raw .502 on 5 PA) · league .351 · 18 pitches seen.395xwOBA .198 shrunk (raw .038 on 7 PA) · league .292 · 17 pitches seen.198xwOBA .361 shrunk (raw .330 on 6 PA) · league .377 · 25 pitches seen.361xwOBA .230 shrunk (raw .126 on 5 PA) · league .274 · 20 pitches seen.230xwOBA .232 shrunk (raw .159 on 5 PA) · league .263 · 16 pitches seen.232xwOBA .189 shrunk (raw .061 on 8 PA) · league .274 · 68 pitches seen.189
vs RHP · 264 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 8% of 12 swings · league 22%8%Whiff 13% of 8 swings · league 20%13%Whiff 50% of 2 swings · league 19%50%Whiff 0% of 10 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 29% of 14 swings · league 9%29%Whiff 17% of 12 swings · league 11%17%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 14%14%Whiff 0% of 8 swings · league 13%0%Whiff 33% of 9 swings · league 17%33%Whiff 27% of 11 swings · league 28%27%Whiff 17% of 6 swings · league 24%17%Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 32%0%Whiff 60% of 15 swings · league 49%60%
vs RHP · 264 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 80% of 15 pitches · league 62%80%Swings at 80% of 10 pitches · league 72%80%Swings at 40% of 5 pitches · league 66%40%Swings at 53% of 19 pitches · league 70%53%Swings at 67% of 21 pitches · league 76%67%Swings at 63% of 19 pitches · league 70%63%Swings at 64% of 11 pitches · league 65%64%Swings at 44% of 18 pitches · league 68%44%Swings at 53% of 17 pitches · league 60%53%Swings at 44% of 25 pitches · league 24%44%Swings at 30% of 20 pitches · league 34%30%Swings at 44% of 16 pitches · league 40%44%Swings at 22% of 68 pitches · league 32%22%
vs RHP · 264 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Jose Trevino against each of José Soriano's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker34%96.1+15″ / +5″.336.33712.6%13.6%12About league average vs these
Curveball27%85.5-13″ / -7″.278.27933.3%33.0%11About league average vs these
Fastball18%96.7+9″ / +14″.352.35315.8%16.8%24About league average vs these
Splitter17%92.2+14″ / +2″.294.29426.8%27.3%8Little history vs this shape
Slider4%90.4-1″ / +3″.305.30629.0%28.5%12About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jose Trevino · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G39.333.333.333.300.37311.1%0.0%7.7%88.3100.50.0%25.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1230.172.167.276.187.26323.3%0.0%25.5%88.2105.64.3%34.8%43.5%
Last 30 G2670.261.257.493.315.21822.9%0.0%22.4%87.2105.63.7%35.2%29.6%
90 days2773.250.247.472.302.21421.9%0.0%21.5%87.2105.63.5%33.3%28.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 57 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 21%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.000.000.000.000.15512.5%0.0%21.4%70.990.90.0%0.0%42.9%
Last 15 G1021.143.143.143.129.1929.5%0.0%12.2%77.799.00.0%10.5%42.1%
Last 30 G1531.161.161.161.145.18616.1%0.0%17.2%81.0104.40.0%19.2%42.3%
90 days1531.161.161.161.145.18616.1%0.0%17.2%81.0104.40.0%19.2%42.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 26 balls in play
Ground 54%Line drive 12%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.176.176.176.159.27111.8%0.0%14.8%80.2100.50.0%13.3%46.7%
Last 15 G1551.160.157.220.163.23317.6%0.0%19.3%83.5105.62.4%23.8%42.9%
Last 30 G30101.230.228.390.263.20820.8%0.0%20.6%85.2105.62.5%30.0%33.8%
90 days31104.223.221.379.255.20620.2%0.0%20.0%85.3105.62.4%28.9%32.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 83 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 18%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 6%
Jose Trevino · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating3Bottom tier
Last 100 pitches11trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.271 / .233running 38 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases1/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSinker95.9100.5-24.094Double play
Sep 25RHPFastball95.489.215.912Single
Sep 25RHPSlider72.591.434.035Out
Sep 25LHPSlider87.484.726.176Out
Sep 18RHPCutter83.195.8-16.112Out
Sep 18RHPFastball94.193.412.836Single
Sep 18RHPSlider84.581.024.416Out
Sep 16RHPFastball98.083.2-44.068Out
Sep 16LHPFastball93.381.648.022Out
Sep 16LHPChangeup86.566.2-72.183Out
Sep 16RHPFastball98.471.823.887Single
Sep 13LHPSweeper77.059.9-50.192Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25411000
Sep 18411001
Sep 16411000
Sep 15100001
Sep 13400000
Sep 9100001
Sep 8400001
Sep 5411001
Sep 1411001
Aug 29400001

Two strikes

José Soriano TOR · RHPwith two strikes
José Soriano with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Curveball27%29%32.8%24.1%20.0%
Fastball18%23%14.8%16.7%18.0%
Sinker34%22%9.8%10.7%17.0%
Splitter17%19%20.0%15.3%19.0%
Slider4%7%27.3%10.7%21.1%
Other0%0%–0.0%21.7%
Jose Trevino bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Jose Trevino with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.8%42.4%
Whiff%23.8%22.2%
Contact%76.2%77.8%
Chase%40.4%39.9%
wOBA.237.237
Whiff vs his put-away shapes23.3%21.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.285
K%18.2%
BB%3.6%
Whiff%10.2%
Barrel%3.1%
Hard-hit%28.4%
Avg EV86.6

Against right-handers, last 90 days

74 PA
wOBA.310
xwOBA vs this mix.237against pitches like his
RV/1000.05
Hard-hit%26.6%
K%22.8%
BB%2.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
José SorianoRHP · TOR vs CIN
5.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 23.1 batters over 5.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 25.0%25%≤34 strikeouts: 17.0%17%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.9%15%67 strikeouts: 10.9%11%78 strikeouts: 7.0%7%89+ strikeouts: 7.8%8%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 41% (red bars) · under: 59%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%19.8%
BB%7.6%
Whiff%10.2%
Velo92.4
BTB Stuff100
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker34%9896.15.8%
Curveball27%10285.417.8%
Fastball18%9296.68.1%
Splitter17%11092.29.5%
Slider4%10390.29.1%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 198035%16%22%.365
Sep 149020%8%20%.236
Sep 88911%5%26%.307

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

José Soriano TOR · RHPvsCIN lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

4 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCIN @ TOR →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jose Trevino: every projection we've made →