MLBengine v14
← CIN at TOR, Sep 25, 2026
6:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · lineup confirmed
Hitter · CIN · batting 3Sal Stewart
Bats rightTalent grade BBalancedHot
.366wOBA vs RHP.337xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · TORJosé Soriano
Throws rightBTB Stuff 100Stable
5.1projected K20%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
José Soriano's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 34% usage, 96.1 mph, +15.2″ arm side, +4.8″ rise. Sal Stewart: wOBA .358 vs league .337 (hitter's edge).Sinker 34%Curveball: 27% usage, 85.5 mph, -13.0″ arm side, -6.8″ rise. Sal Stewart: wOBA .300 vs league .279 (hitter's edge).Curveball 27%Fastball: 18% usage, 96.7 mph, +9.4″ arm side, +13.6″ rise. Sal Stewart: wOBA .374 vs league .353 (hitter's edge).Fastball 18%Splitter: 17% usage, 92.2 mph, +13.9″ arm side, +1.6″ rise. Sal Stewart: wOBA .315 vs league .294 (hitter's edge).Splitter 17%Slider: 4% usage, 90.4 mph, -1.2″ arm side, +3.0″ rise. Sal Stewart: wOBA .327 vs league .306 (hitter's edge).Slider 4%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Sal Stewart's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Sal Stewart's last 40 balls in playHit (16)Out (24)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 64.6 mph at 21°Out: 77.2 mph at 82°Single: 101.5 mph at 0°Out: 101.7 mph at 8°Out: 91.6 mph at -6°Out: 101.3 mph at 56°Single: 96.4 mph at -7°Out: 95.7 mph at 60°Out: 102.8 mph at -23°Out: 105.1 mph at 18°Out: 107.9 mph at 20°Out: 97.3 mph at 33°Out: 100.7 mph at 7°Out: 101.5 mph at 9°Out: 89.4 mph at -19°Out: 76.6 mph at -18°Single: 100.8 mph at -14°Out: 95.7 mph at 24°Out: 100.1 mph at 9°Home run: 104.3 mph at 25°Single: 77.1 mph at 17°Single: 91.9 mph at 13°Single: 98.0 mph at -15°Single: 105.9 mph at 6°Out: 89.2 mph at 45°Out: 47.4 mph at 78°Out: 67.2 mph at -55°Out: 61.7 mph at -36°Out: 99.0 mph at 6°Single: 102.0 mph at 0°Single: 104.2 mph at 2°Single: 109.7 mph at 2°Out: 101.6 mph at 5°Single: 107.3 mph at 7°Out: 77.8 mph at -15°Single: 79.5 mph at -8°Single: 95.4 mph at 2°Out: 89.9 mph at -16°Single: 109.1 mph at 11°Out: 105.3 mph at 18°
65% hit 95+ mph30% in the sweet spot40% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit70.2%69.5%+0.7
2+ total bases42.1%42.4%-0.3
Home run14.2%16.6%-2.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.5
Pitch mix
+1.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.7
Pitch mix
+1.1
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.5
Home run
Starter
-3.3
Pitch mix
+0.5
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Sal Stewart hits
Sal Stewart · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .318 shrunk (raw .376 on 9 PA) · league .274 · 24 pitches seen.318xwOBA .416 shrunk (raw .534 on 11 PA) · league .307 · 38 pitches seen.416xwOBA .362 shrunk (raw .470 on 11 PA) · league .263 · 39 pitches seen.362xwOBA .408 shrunk (raw .461 on 15 PA) · league .342 · 40 pitches seen.408xwOBA .516 shrunk (raw .584 on 23 PA) · league .386 · 72 pitches seen.516xwOBA .355 shrunk (raw .379 on 17 PA) · league .321 · 54 pitches seen.355xwOBA .243 shrunk (raw .187 on 14 PA) · league .308 · 33 pitches seen.243xwOBA .393 shrunk (raw .419 on 19 PA) · league .351 · 54 pitches seen.393xwOBA .246 shrunk (raw .207 on 14 PA) · league .292 · 42 pitches seen.246xwOBA .270 shrunk (raw .219 on 25 PA) · league .377 · 108 pitches seen.270xwOBA .193 shrunk (raw .129 on 15 PA) · league .274 · 68 pitches seen.193xwOBA .318 shrunk (raw .345 on 24 PA) · league .263 · 90 pitches seen.318xwOBA .241 shrunk (raw .232 on 43 PA) · league .274 · 272 pitches seen.241
vs RHP · 934 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 25% of 20 swings · league 22%25%Whiff 32% of 31 swings · league 20%32%Whiff 39% of 28 swings · league 19%39%Whiff 9% of 32 swings · league 10%9%Whiff 13% of 55 swings · league 9%13%Whiff 19% of 36 swings · league 11%19%Whiff 14% of 22 swings · league 14%14%Whiff 6% of 33 swings · league 13%6%Whiff 19% of 21 swings · league 17%19%Whiff 21% of 58 swings · league 28%21%Whiff 26% of 27 swings · league 24%26%Whiff 15% of 41 swings · league 32%15%Whiff 48% of 83 swings · league 49%48%
vs RHP · 934 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 83% of 24 pitches · league 62%83%Swings at 82% of 38 pitches · league 72%82%Swings at 72% of 39 pitches · league 66%72%Swings at 80% of 40 pitches · league 70%80%Swings at 76% of 72 pitches · league 76%76%Swings at 67% of 54 pitches · league 70%67%Swings at 67% of 33 pitches · league 65%67%Swings at 61% of 54 pitches · league 68%61%Swings at 50% of 42 pitches · league 60%50%Swings at 54% of 108 pitches · league 24%54%Swings at 40% of 68 pitches · league 34%40%Swings at 46% of 90 pitches · league 40%46%Swings at 31% of 272 pitches · league 32%31%
vs RHP · 934 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Sal Stewart against each of José Soriano's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker34%96.1+15″ / +5″.358.33717.2%13.6%48About league average vs these
Curveball27%85.5-13″ / -7″.300.27928.6%33.0%26About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Fastball18%96.7+9″ / +14″.374.35321.6%16.8%64About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Splitter17%92.2+14″ / +2″.315.29425.4%27.3%24About league average vs these
Slider4%90.4-1″ / +3″.327.30624.2%28.5%38About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Sal Stewart · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G414.250.357.250.293.27028.6%14.3%26.5%94.0102.80.0%75.0%25.0%
Last 15 G1440.351.375.432.378.30625.0%5.0%25.8%91.2109.13.6%57.1%28.6%
Last 30 G2979.315.342.493.369.32621.5%5.1%25.4%90.9109.110.3%48.3%37.9%
90 days77242.290.326.511.362.33521.5%5.4%24.0%89.6110.29.8%38.7%37.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 173 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 22%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G38.000.000.000.000.23950.0%0.0%31.2%97.9107.925.0%75.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1022.143.182.143.155.26945.5%4.5%32.6%97.6109.79.1%81.8%27.3%
Last 30 G2349.227.286.295.263.32128.6%8.2%25.0%93.6110.09.7%64.5%45.2%
90 days4697.253.320.368.307.32526.8%8.2%24.2%91.3110.09.7%53.2%37.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 62 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 27%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.150.227.150.186.25836.4%9.1%28.0%95.3107.98.3%75.0%33.3%
Last 15 G1562.276.306.328.298.29332.3%4.8%28.1%93.0109.75.1%64.1%28.2%
Last 30 G30128.282.320.419.329.32424.2%6.2%25.3%91.8110.010.1%53.9%40.4%
90 days79339.279.324.471.346.33223.0%6.2%24.1%90.0110.29.8%42.6%37.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 235 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 23%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 5%
Sal Stewart · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating78Above average
Last 100 pitches41trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.355 / .345results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSinker95.764.621.558Single
Sep 25LHPFastball92.877.282.003Out
Sep 24RHPFastball94.7101.50.386Single
Sep 24RHPFastball97.3101.78.608Out
Sep 24RHPSplitter85.791.6-6.168Out
Sep 23LHPChangeup87.5101.356.017Out
Sep 22RHPCurveball81.596.4-7.204Single
Sep 22RHPChangeup82.495.760.020Out
Sep 22RHPSlider84.3102.8-23.099Out
Sep 20LHPCurveball78.7105.118.641Out
Sep 20LHPSinker90.6107.9201.249Out
Sep 20RHPCutter88.897.333.335Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25511003
Sep 24411010
Sep 23400003
Sep 22511011
Sep 20400001
Sep 19400002
Sep 18411000
Sep 17425101
Sep 16433000
Sep 15400003

Two strikes

José Soriano TOR · RHPwith two strikes
José Soriano with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Curveball27%29%32.8%24.1%20.0%
Fastball18%23%14.8%16.7%18.0%
Sinker34%22%9.8%10.7%17.0%
Splitter17%19%20.0%15.3%19.0%
Slider4%7%27.3%10.7%21.1%
Other0%0%–0.0%21.7%
Sal Stewart bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Sal Stewart with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%39.9%42.4%
Whiff%19.9%22.2%
Contact%80.1%77.8%
Chase%44.5%39.9%
wOBA.257.237
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.6%21.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBBalanced type
wOBA.349
K%22.6%
BB%6.3%
Whiff%12.0%
Barrel%7.2%
Hard-hit%30.0%
Avg EV90.4

Against right-handers, last 90 days

242 PA
wOBA.366
xwOBA vs this mix.337against pitches like his
RV/1001.13
Hard-hit%28.4%
K%21.1%
BB%6.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
José SorianoRHP · TOR vs CIN
5.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 23.1 batters over 5.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 25.0%25%≤34 strikeouts: 17.0%17%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.9%15%67 strikeouts: 10.9%11%78 strikeouts: 7.0%7%89+ strikeouts: 7.8%8%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 41% (red bars) · under: 59%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%19.8%
BB%7.6%
Whiff%10.2%
Velo92.4
BTB Stuff100
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker34%9896.15.8%
Curveball27%10285.417.8%
Fastball18%9296.68.1%
Splitter17%11092.29.5%
Slider4%10390.29.1%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 198035%16%22%.365
Sep 149020%8%20%.236
Sep 88911%5%26%.307

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

José Soriano TOR · RHPvsCIN lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

4 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCIN @ TOR →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Sal Stewart: every projection we've made →