MLBengine v14
← CLE at KC, Sep 25, 2026
6:40 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · lineup confirmed
Hitter · KC · batting 1Carter Jensen
Bats leftTalent grade APowerCold
.369wOBA vs RHP.332xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · CLEGavin Williams
Throws rightBTB Stuff 110Trending Up
7.2projected K39%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Gavin Williams's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sweeper: 32% usage, 87.8 mph, -12.2″ arm side, -1.2″ rise. Carter Jensen: wOBA .314 vs league .296 (hitter's edge).Sweeper 32%Fastball: 31% usage, 98.4 mph, +10.0″ arm side, +14.5″ rise. Carter Jensen: wOBA .356 vs league .339 (hitter's edge).Fastball 31%Curveball: 22% usage, 82.4 mph, -10.6″ arm side, -15.1″ rise. Carter Jensen: wOBA .311 vs league .294 (hitter's edge).Curveball 22%Sinker: 13% usage, 97.9 mph, +14.5″ arm side, +9.4″ rise. Carter Jensen: wOBA .369 vs league .352 (hitter's edge).Sinker 13%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Carter Jensen's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Carter Jensen's last 40 balls in playHit (17)Out (23)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Home run: 108.2 mph at 24°Home run: 108.4 mph at 38°Out: 83.7 mph at 56°Out: 86.4 mph at 29°Out: 90.7 mph at 46°Out: 86.0 mph at 41°Single: 104.5 mph at -8°Single: 106.4 mph at 16°Single: 94.0 mph at 5°Out: 83.9 mph at -8°Out: 99.0 mph at 46°Single: 75.6 mph at 14°Home run: 99.9 mph at 40°Out: 55.0 mph at 42°Out: 92.6 mph at 74°Single: 103.1 mph at -10°Single: 92.0 mph at 8°Out: 94.6 mph at -31°Out: 92.6 mph at 26°Out: 100.1 mph at 46°Double: 88.5 mph at 7°Out: 60.6 mph at -62°Double: 88.6 mph at 26°Out: 84.4 mph at 32°Single: 93.5 mph at 2°Home run: 108.4 mph at 29°Out: 71.2 mph at 64°Out: 65.3 mph at 72°Double: 102.6 mph at 26°Out: 64.2 mph at -54°Double: 110.0 mph at 22°Out: 63.1 mph at 48°Home run: 108.6 mph at 29°Out: 106.5 mph at 19°Out: 82.4 mph at 16°Out: 86.9 mph at 10°Double: 107.4 mph at 14°Out: 95.6 mph at -15°Out: 90.3 mph at 60°Out: 54.2 mph at -17°
38% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot43% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit52.5%58.9%-6.4
2+ total bases32.5%37.1%-4.6
Home run14.8%16.5%-1.6
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-5.0
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
-0.9
2+ total bases
Starter
-2.6
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
-0.4
Park
-1.4
Home run
Starter
+0.8
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.4
Park
-1.9

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Carter Jensen hits
Carter Jensen · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .188 shrunk (raw .120 on 15 PA) · league .274 · 50 pitches seen.188xwOBA .315 shrunk (raw .327 on 8 PA) · league .307 · 39 pitches seen.315xwOBA .340 shrunk (raw .442 on 9 PA) · league .263 · 23 pitches seen.340xwOBA .362 shrunk (raw .375 on 18 PA) · league .342 · 56 pitches seen.362xwOBA .518 shrunk (raw .598 on 20 PA) · league .386 · 57 pitches seen.518xwOBA .278 shrunk (raw .235 on 12 PA) · league .321 · 40 pitches seen.278xwOBA .292 shrunk (raw .281 on 18 PA) · league .308 · 55 pitches seen.292xwOBA .422 shrunk (raw .454 on 27 PA) · league .351 · 59 pitches seen.422xwOBA .302 shrunk (raw .325 on 5 PA) · league .292 · 28 pitches seen.302xwOBA .374 shrunk (raw .372 on 15 PA) · league .377 · 151 pitches seen.374xwOBA .260 shrunk (raw .236 on 7 PA) · league .274 · 38 pitches seen.260xwOBA .214 shrunk (raw .192 on 26 PA) · league .263 · 152 pitches seen.214xwOBA .373 shrunk (raw .419 on 26 PA) · league .274 · 134 pitches seen.373
vs RHP · 882 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 48% of 29 swings · league 22%48%Whiff 20% of 25 swings · league 20%20%Whiff 13% of 16 swings · league 19%13%Whiff 18% of 40 swings · league 10%18%Whiff 17% of 47 swings · league 9%17%Whiff 11% of 28 swings · league 11%11%Whiff 21% of 38 swings · league 14%21%Whiff 6% of 47 swings · league 13%6%Whiff 6% of 17 swings · league 17%6%Whiff 59% of 17 swings · league 28%59%Whiff 33% of 9 swings · league 24%33%Whiff 36% of 56 swings · league 32%36%Whiff 47% of 36 swings · league 49%47%
vs RHP · 882 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 58% of 50 pitches · league 62%58%Swings at 64% of 39 pitches · league 72%64%Swings at 70% of 23 pitches · league 66%70%Swings at 71% of 56 pitches · league 70%71%Swings at 83% of 57 pitches · league 76%83%Swings at 70% of 40 pitches · league 70%70%Swings at 69% of 55 pitches · league 65%69%Swings at 80% of 59 pitches · league 68%80%Swings at 61% of 28 pitches · league 60%61%Swings at 11% of 151 pitches · league 24%11%Swings at 24% of 38 pitches · league 34%24%Swings at 37% of 152 pitches · league 40%37%Swings at 27% of 134 pitches · league 32%27%
vs RHP · 882 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Carter Jensen against each of Gavin Williams's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sweeper32%87.8-12″ / -1″.314.29631.3%33.8%18About league average vs these
Fastball31%98.4+10″ / +15″.356.33929.0%19.9%51About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Curveball22%82.4-11″ / -15″.311.29430.4%32.6%14About league average vs these
Sinker13%97.9+15″ / +9″.369.35224.9%16.5%37About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Carter Jensen · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.250.250.812.431.27137.5%0.0%28.6%91.9108.420.0%50.0%10.0%
Last 15 G1548.310.396.714.459.40225.0%12.5%28.7%92.6110.020.0%43.3%40.0%
Last 30 G2890.325.422.792.496.43922.2%13.3%25.2%94.1110.219.3%50.9%42.1%
90 days63207.243.353.571.396.34926.1%13.5%24.9%92.1110.213.9%47.5%33.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 122 balls in play
Ground 32%Line drive 18%Fly ball 39%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G37.600.571.600.486.34828.6%0.0%30.0%90.6106.40.0%25.0%75.0%
Last 15 G1017.267.294.467.318.28947.1%0.0%31.0%83.4108.412.5%25.0%50.0%
Last 30 G2140.242.325.455.331.35335.0%10.0%29.0%93.3110.314.3%47.6%42.9%
90 days4797.200.278.329.271.29539.2%9.3%31.4%90.8110.314.3%42.9%42.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 49 balls in play
Ground 33%Line drive 25%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G523.333.348.762.448.29434.8%0.0%28.8%91.6108.414.3%42.9%28.6%
Last 15 G1565.298.369.649.422.37330.8%9.2%29.3%90.6110.018.4%39.5%42.1%
Last 30 G30130.300.392.691.445.41326.2%12.3%26.3%93.9110.317.9%50.0%42.3%
90 days71304.229.329.492.356.33230.3%12.2%26.8%91.7110.314.0%46.2%36.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 171 balls in play
Ground 32%Line drive 20%Fly ball 36%Pop-up 12%
Carter Jensen · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating69Above average
Last 100 pitches0trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.348 / .334results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit10/12
2+ total bases8/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPCurveball82.5108.2241.915Home run
Sep 25RHPFastball94.9108.4381.499Home run
Sep 25RHPSlider91.983.756.015Out
Sep 25LHPSinker92.486.429.097Sac fly
Sep 24RHPFastball95.590.746.014Out
Sep 24RHPFastball96.386.041.008Out
Sep 23RHPSweeper83.5104.5-8.324Single
Sep 23LHPSlider83.7106.416.662Single
Sep 23LHPSweeper77.194.05.458Single
Sep 22RHPChangeup92.083.9-8.109Out
Sep 22RHPFastball95.499.046.045Out
Sep 22LHPSinker94.275.614.491Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25528201
Sep 24400002
Sep 23433001
Sep 22511001
Sep 19514103
Sep 18400003
Sep 17422010
Sep 16512010
Sep 15412002
Sep 13211001

Two strikes

Gavin Williams CLE · RHPwith two strikes
Gavin Williams with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper32%43%44.3%29.2%19.3%
Fastball31%33%30.2%25.9%18.0%
Curveball22%19%34.6%23.7%20.0%
Sinker13%4%7.1%22.7%17.0%
Cutter2%1%40.0%33.3%17.9%
Carter Jensen bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Carter Jensen with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.4%41.0%
Whiff%24.7%21.3%
Contact%75.3%78.7%
Chase%35.5%39.6%
wOBA.255.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes32.1%28.1%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.351
K%29.0%
BB%11.9%
Whiff%11.7%
Barrel%7.6%
Hard-hit%26.6%
Avg EV91.6

Against right-handers, last 90 days

206 PA
wOBA.369
xwOBA vs this mix.332against pitches like his
RV/1001.23
Hard-hit%26.9%
K%26.3%
BB%12.0%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Gavin WilliamsRHP · CLE vs KC
7.2projected strikeouts · likely 4 to 11 · 23.4 batters over 5.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 7.4%7%≤34 strikeouts: 8.5%9%45 strikeouts: 12.0%12%56 strikeouts: 14.4%14%67 strikeouts: 14.8%15%78 strikeouts: 13.2%13%89+ strikeouts: 29.7%30%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 58% (red bars) · under: 42%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%39.1%
BB%7.6%
Whiff%16.9%
Velo91.3
BTB Stuff110
Location98
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sweeper32%12487.924.6%
Fastball31%11198.314.8%
Curveball22%9882.513.7%
Sinker13%9497.98.6%
Cutter2%10993.215.6%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 208938%24%21%.148
Sep 1411329%19%13%.296
Sep 69946%16%21%.267

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Gavin Williams CLE · RHPvsKC lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCLE @ KC →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Carter Jensen: every projection we've made →