MLBengine v14
← CLE at KC, Sep 25, 2026
6:40 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · lineup confirmed
Hitter · KC · batting 3Jac Caglianone
Bats leftTalent grade APowerCold
.391wOBA vs RHP.363xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · CLEGavin Williams
Throws rightBTB Stuff 110Trending Up
7.2projected K39%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Gavin Williams's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sweeper: 32% usage, 87.8 mph, -12.2″ arm side, -1.2″ rise. Jac Caglianone: wOBA .318 vs league .296 (hitter's edge).Sweeper 32%Fastball: 31% usage, 98.4 mph, +10.0″ arm side, +14.5″ rise. Jac Caglianone: wOBA .360 vs league .339 (hitter's edge).Fastball 31%Curveball: 22% usage, 82.4 mph, -10.6″ arm side, -15.1″ rise. Jac Caglianone: wOBA .315 vs league .294 (hitter's edge).Curveball 22%Sinker: 13% usage, 97.9 mph, +14.5″ arm side, +9.4″ rise. Jac Caglianone: wOBA .373 vs league .352 (hitter's edge).Sinker 13%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jac Caglianone's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jac Caglianone's last 40 balls in playHit (17)Out (23)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 103.7 mph at -24°Single: 91.9 mph at 10°Double: 104.2 mph at 16°Out: 89.4 mph at 10°Single: 90.4 mph at 19°Out: 72.2 mph at -16°Out: 101.6 mph at -3°Out: 75.1 mph at -3°Single: 101.8 mph at 1°Double: 107.2 mph at 22°Out: 94.2 mph at 39°Single: 113.8 mph at -1°Single: 97.8 mph at 1°Out: 108.0 mph at 14°Single: 96.1 mph at 16°Out: 87.5 mph at 38°Single: 79.0 mph at 23°Out: 94.5 mph at -13°Out: 102.9 mph at 14°Single: 73.9 mph at 5°Out: 73.3 mph at -11°Out: 97.0 mph at -14°Out: 72.9 mph at -53°Out: 110.0 mph at 8°Out: 74.6 mph at -14°Double: 107.2 mph at 13°Out: 92.0 mph at 36°Single: 98.6 mph at 4°Out: 98.4 mph at 49°Out: 112.2 mph at -7°Double: 94.1 mph at 1°Out: 93.4 mph at 30°Out: 71.1 mph at -30°Out: 99.3 mph at 35°Double: 108.0 mph at 5°Out: 68.2 mph at -45°Out: 88.6 mph at 40°Single: 106.8 mph at 5°Out: 83.9 mph at 30°Single: 111.8 mph at -4°
50% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot43% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit63.4%67.4%-4.0
2+ total bases37.6%40.4%-2.8
Home run13.3%13.4%-0.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-4.7
Pitch mix
+1.5
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-0.6
2+ total bases
Starter
-2.9
Pitch mix
+1.6
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
-1.1
Home run
Starter
+1.1
Pitch mix
+0.9
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
-1.7

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Jac Caglianone hits
Jac Caglianone · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw .275 on 10 PA) · league .274 · 20 pitches seen.274xwOBA .384 shrunk (raw .476 on 10 PA) · league .307 · 15 pitches seen.384xwOBA .376 shrunk (raw .500 on 11 PA) · league .263 · 20 pitches seen.376xwOBA .467 shrunk (raw .574 on 14 PA) · league .342 · 35 pitches seen.467xwOBA .468 shrunk (raw .529 on 16 PA) · league .386 · 31 pitches seen.468xwOBA .330 shrunk (raw .347 on 6 PA) · league .321 · 17 pitches seen.330xwOBA .284 shrunk (raw .261 on 12 PA) · league .308 · 36 pitches seen.284xwOBA .347 shrunk (raw .343 on 13 PA) · league .351 · 29 pitches seen.347xwOBA .346 shrunk (raw .439 on 7 PA) · league .292 · 16 pitches seen.346xwOBA .326 shrunk (raw .279 on 13 PA) · league .377 · 57 pitches seen.326xwOBA .332 shrunk (raw .385 on 13 PA) · league .274 · 43 pitches seen.332xwOBA .224 shrunk (raw .194 on 16 PA) · league .263 · 72 pitches seen.224xwOBA .315 shrunk (raw .338 on 22 PA) · league .274 · 114 pitches seen.315
vs RHP · 505 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 13% of 16 swings · league 22%13%Whiff 15% of 13 swings · league 20%15%Whiff 0% of 17 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 4% of 26 swings · league 10%4%Whiff 11% of 28 swings · league 9%11%Whiff 7% of 14 swings · league 11%7%Whiff 43% of 28 swings · league 14%43%Whiff 18% of 22 swings · league 13%18%Whiff 15% of 13 swings · league 17%15%Whiff 41% of 27 swings · league 28%41%Whiff 17% of 30 swings · league 24%17%Whiff 32% of 34 swings · league 32%32%Whiff 47% of 36 swings · league 49%47%
vs RHP · 505 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 80% of 20 pitches · league 62%80%Swings at 87% of 15 pitches · league 72%87%Swings at 85% of 20 pitches · league 66%85%Swings at 74% of 35 pitches · league 70%74%Swings at 90% of 31 pitches · league 76%90%Swings at 82% of 17 pitches · league 70%82%Swings at 78% of 36 pitches · league 65%78%Swings at 76% of 29 pitches · league 68%76%Swings at 81% of 16 pitches · league 60%81%Swings at 47% of 57 pitches · league 24%47%Swings at 70% of 43 pitches · league 34%70%Swings at 47% of 72 pitches · league 40%47%Swings at 32% of 114 pitches · league 32%32%
vs RHP · 505 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Jac Caglianone against each of Gavin Williams's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sweeper32%87.8-12″ / -1″.318.29634.0%33.8%15About league average vs these
Fastball31%98.4+10″ / +15″.360.33921.9%19.9%32About league average vs these
Curveball22%82.4-11″ / -15″.315.29432.6%32.6%12About league average vs these
Sinker13%97.9+15″ / +9″.373.35218.6%16.5%27About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jac Caglianone · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.750.786.917.729.5800.0%14.3%8.0%98.2113.88.3%66.7%58.3%
Last 15 G1438.382.447.500.418.34623.7%7.9%24.7%95.8113.84.0%56.0%40.0%
Last 30 G2672.424.472.561.457.38022.2%6.9%26.8%94.9114.48.0%56.0%42.0%
90 days55165.353.382.564.418.38217.6%4.2%23.4%93.3115.39.4%52.3%35.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 128 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 24%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G49.125.222.125.178.21133.3%11.1%36.8%87.0101.60.0%20.0%20.0%
Last 15 G715.077.200.077.153.24533.3%6.7%33.3%85.5102.90.0%25.0%25.0%
Last 30 G1943.250.302.375.321.30727.9%2.3%33.7%90.3108.07.1%39.3%32.1%
90 days3683.225.253.362.279.25127.7%1.2%30.4%90.3112.25.3%45.6%24.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 57 balls in play
Ground 60%Line drive 19%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G523.500.565.600.513.43513.0%13.0%20.5%94.9113.85.9%52.9%47.1%
Last 15 G1553.298.377.383.343.31826.4%7.5%27.3%93.3113.83.0%48.5%36.4%
Last 30 G30115.358.409.491.405.35224.3%5.2%29.6%93.3114.47.7%50.0%38.5%
90 days63248.309.339.496.371.33821.0%3.2%25.9%92.4115.38.1%50.3%31.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 185 balls in play
Ground 53%Line drive 23%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 4%
Jac Caglianone · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating80Excellent
Last 100 pitches98trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.359 / .350results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSweeper86.8103.7-24.125Single
Sep 25LHPCurveball78.391.910.605Single
Sep 25RHPSinker96.9104.216.591Double
Sep 25RHPFastball92.689.410.476Out
Sep 23RHPFastball94.690.419.481Single
Sep 23LHPSlider83.272.2-16.042Out
Sep 23LHPSweeper80.0101.6-3.370Out
Sep 22LHPSweeper81.175.1-3.088Out
Sep 22RHPChangeup86.3101.81.456Single
Sep 22RHPFastball91.9107.2221.517Double
Sep 22LHPCutter90.094.239.093Out
Sep 20RHPSinker96.6113.8-1.532Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25534001
Sep 23411001
Sep 22523001
Sep 20422010
Sep 19522020
Sep 17300001
Sep 16100001
Sep 15400003
Sep 13300002
Sep 12100001

Two strikes

Gavin Williams CLE · RHPwith two strikes
Gavin Williams with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper32%43%44.3%29.2%19.3%
Fastball31%33%30.2%25.9%18.0%
Curveball22%19%34.6%23.7%20.0%
Sinker13%4%7.1%22.7%17.0%
Cutter2%1%40.0%33.3%17.9%
Jac Caglianone bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Jac Caglianone with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.7%41.0%
Whiff%24.6%21.3%
Contact%75.4%78.7%
Chase%44.0%39.6%
wOBA.250.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes32.0%28.1%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.316
K%21.3%
BB%4.4%
Whiff%15.1%
Barrel%6.3%
Hard-hit%35.8%
Avg EV91.8

Against right-handers, last 90 days

165 PA
wOBA.391
xwOBA vs this mix.363against pitches like his
RV/1002.14
Hard-hit%38.3%
K%19.0%
BB%3.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Gavin WilliamsRHP · CLE vs KC
7.2projected strikeouts · likely 4 to 11 · 23.4 batters over 5.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 7.4%7%≤34 strikeouts: 8.5%9%45 strikeouts: 12.0%12%56 strikeouts: 14.4%14%67 strikeouts: 14.8%15%78 strikeouts: 13.2%13%89+ strikeouts: 29.7%30%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 58% (red bars) · under: 42%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%39.1%
BB%7.6%
Whiff%16.9%
Velo91.3
BTB Stuff110
Location98
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sweeper32%12487.924.6%
Fastball31%11198.314.8%
Curveball22%9882.513.7%
Sinker13%9497.98.6%
Cutter2%10993.215.6%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 208938%24%21%.148
Sep 1411329%19%13%.296
Sep 69946%16%21%.267

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Gavin Williams CLE · RHPvsKC lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCLE @ KC →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jac Caglianone: every projection we've made →