MLBengine v14
← CLE at KC, Sep 25, 2026
6:40 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · lineup confirmed
Hitter · KC · batting 4Maikel Garcia
Bats rightTalent grade BBalancedCold
.321wOBA vs RHP.306xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · CLEGavin Williams
Throws rightBTB Stuff 110Trending Up
7.2projected K39%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Gavin Williams's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sweeper: 32% usage, 87.8 mph, -12.2″ arm side, -1.2″ rise. Maikel Garcia: wOBA .280 vs league .280 (about even).Sweeper 32%Fastball: 31% usage, 98.4 mph, +10.0″ arm side, +14.5″ rise. Maikel Garcia: wOBA .343 vs league .343 (about even).Fastball 31%Curveball: 22% usage, 82.4 mph, -10.6″ arm side, -15.1″ rise. Maikel Garcia: wOBA .270 vs league .270 (about even).Curveball 22%Sinker: 13% usage, 97.9 mph, +14.5″ arm side, +9.4″ rise. Maikel Garcia: wOBA .342 vs league .342 (about even).Sinker 13%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Maikel Garcia's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Maikel Garcia's last 35 balls in playHit (12)Out (23)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 78.3 mph at -30°Single: 56.3 mph at -50°Out: 96.1 mph at 46°Single: 99.4 mph at 8°Double: 96.3 mph at 20°Single: 92.5 mph at 14°Single: 90.1 mph at -10°Out: 91.6 mph at 27°Out: 64.2 mph at -41°Out: 91.3 mph at -21°Out: 95.1 mph at -9°Out: 101.3 mph at -6°Out: 68.8 mph at 40°Out: 88.8 mph at 27°Double: 90.0 mph at 21°Out: 74.3 mph at 82°Out: 88.0 mph at 43°Out: 83.8 mph at 25°Out: 95.4 mph at -41°Out: 93.5 mph at -6°Out: 98.7 mph at 3°Out: 92.1 mph at 41°Double: 73.5 mph at 24°Out: 96.1 mph at 18°Out: 70.6 mph at -10°Single: 96.0 mph at 3°Out: 55.5 mph at -55°Triple: 84.0 mph at 19°Out: 89.1 mph at -15°Single: 98.1 mph at -1°Out: 98.7 mph at 17°Single: 93.8 mph at -22°Single: 91.4 mph at 13°Out: 85.1 mph at -21°Out: 85.9 mph at 31°
31% hit 95+ mph37% in the sweet spot34% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit58.2%62.8%-4.5
2+ total bases30.1%33.8%-3.6
Home run6.0%7.0%-1.0
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-4.2
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
-3.1
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.4
Home run
Starter
-0.2
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-0.8

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Maikel Garcia hits
Maikel Garcia · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .240 shrunk (raw .034 on 2 PA) · league .274 · 3 pitches seen.240xwOBA .307 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .307 · 2 pitches seenxwOBA .263 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .263 · 0 pitches seenxwOBA .321 shrunk (raw .066 on 1 PA) · league .342 · 4 pitches seen.321xwOBA .415 shrunk (raw .587 on 2 PA) · league .386 · 6 pitches seen.415xwOBA .310 shrunk (raw .278 on 4 PA) · league .321 · 6 pitches seen.310xwOBA .282 shrunk (raw .180 on 3 PA) · league .308 · 4 pitches seen.282xwOBA .310 shrunk (raw .066 on 2 PA) · league .351 · 7 pitches seen.310xwOBA .273 shrunk (raw .044 on 1 PA) · league .292 · 6 pitches seen.273xwOBA .423 shrunk (raw .698 on 2 PA) · league .377 · 6 pitches seen.423xwOBA .325 shrunk (raw .937 on 1 PA) · league .274 · 3 pitches seen.325xwOBA .303 shrunk (raw .465 on 3 PA) · league .263 · 8 pitches seen.303xwOBA .253 shrunk (raw .204 on 5 PA) · league .274 · 35 pitches seen.253
vs RHP · 90 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 22%0%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 20%0%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 19%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 13%0%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 17%0%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 28%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 24%0%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 32%0%Whiff 46% of 11 swings · league 49%46%
vs RHP · 90 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 67% of 3 pitches · league 62%67%Swings at 100% of 2 pitches · league 72%100%Swings at – of 0 pitches · league 66%Swings at 50% of 4 pitches · league 70%50%Swings at 33% of 6 pitches · league 76%33%Swings at 67% of 6 pitches · league 70%67%Swings at 50% of 4 pitches · league 65%50%Swings at 29% of 7 pitches · league 68%29%Swings at 33% of 6 pitches · league 60%33%Swings at 0% of 6 pitches · league 24%0%Swings at 67% of 3 pitches · league 34%67%Swings at 25% of 8 pitches · league 40%25%Swings at 31% of 35 pitches · league 32%31%
vs RHP · 90 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Maikel Garcia against each of Gavin Williams's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sweeper32%87.8-12″ / -1″.280.28035.1%37.0%6Little history vs this shape
Fastball31%98.4+10″ / +15″.343.34314.2%17.9%5Little history vs this shape
Curveball22%82.4-11″ / -15″.270.27029.4%31.0%4Little history vs this shape
Sinker13%97.9+15″ / +9″.342.3429.3%11.9%7Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Maikel Garcia · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G410.167.500.167.370.39710.0%40.0%15.4%93.1101.30.0%60.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1026.238.385.381.348.30311.5%19.2%15.2%89.7101.30.0%27.8%38.9%
Last 30 G1026.238.385.381.348.30311.5%19.2%15.2%89.7101.30.0%27.8%38.9%
90 days1026.238.385.381.348.30311.5%19.2%15.2%89.7101.30.0%27.8%38.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 18 balls in play
Ground 56%Line drive 17%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G49.500.556.625.517.3480.0%11.1%0.0%82.096.30.0%25.0%37.5%
Last 15 G920.368.400.474.385.31610.0%5.0%7.4%84.198.70.0%35.3%35.3%
Last 30 G920.368.400.474.385.31610.0%5.0%7.4%84.198.70.0%35.3%35.3%
90 days920.368.400.474.385.31610.0%5.0%7.4%84.198.70.0%35.3%35.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 17 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 29%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.357.526.429.439.3745.3%26.3%8.3%86.3101.30.0%38.5%30.8%
Last 15 G1246.300.391.425.364.30910.9%13.0%11.7%87.0101.30.0%31.4%37.1%
Last 30 G1246.300.391.425.364.30910.9%13.0%11.7%87.0101.30.0%31.4%37.1%
90 days1246.300.391.425.364.30910.9%13.0%11.7%87.0101.30.0%31.4%37.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 35 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 23%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 3%
FormCold
Contact rating–percentile of xwOBA
Last 100 pitches–
wOBA / xwOBA.350 / .308running 42 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/11
2+ total bases5/11
Home run0/11

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSweeper87.478.3-30.045Out
Sep 25LHPSlider85.056.3-50.240Single
Sep 25LHPSlider83.796.146.011Out
Sep 25RHPSweeper88.299.48.580Single
Sep 23LHPSlider83.696.320.360Double
Sep 23LHPFastball94.392.514.889Single
Sep 23LHPSweeper79.090.1-10.158Single
Sep 22LHPCutter91.891.627.140Out
Sep 22LHPSinker95.264.2-41.131Out
Sep 20RHPSlider87.291.3-21.097Out
Sep 20RHPSweeper83.795.1-9.195Out
Sep 20RHPSweeper88.9101.3-6.258Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25522010
Sep 23434010
Sep 22500030
Sep 20400001
Sep 19100000
Sep 18412001
Sep 17400000
Sep 15400011
Aug 20112000
Aug 19524000

Two strikes

Gavin Williams CLE · RHPwith two strikes
Gavin Williams with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper32%43%44.3%29.2%19.3%
Fastball31%33%30.2%25.9%18.0%
Curveball22%19%34.6%23.7%20.0%
Sinker13%4%7.1%22.7%17.0%
Cutter2%1%40.0%33.3%17.9%
Maikel Garcia bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Maikel Garcia with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%40.6%42.4%
Whiff%21.4%22.2%
Contact%78.6%77.8%
Chase%39.2%39.9%
wOBA.240.237
Whiff vs his put-away shapes26.3%27.1%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBBalanced type
wOBA.344
K%15.3%
BB%9.4%
Whiff%9.5%
Barrel%3.8%
Hard-hit%30.5%
Avg EV89.5

Against right-handers, last 90 days

23 PA
wOBA.321
xwOBA vs this mix.306against pitches like his
RV/100-0.03
Hard-hit%23.2%
K%19.0%
BB%9.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Gavin WilliamsRHP · CLE vs KC
7.2projected strikeouts · likely 4 to 11 · 23.4 batters over 5.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 7.4%7%≤34 strikeouts: 8.5%9%45 strikeouts: 12.0%12%56 strikeouts: 14.4%14%67 strikeouts: 14.8%15%78 strikeouts: 13.2%13%89+ strikeouts: 29.7%30%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 58% (red bars) · under: 42%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%39.1%
BB%7.6%
Whiff%16.9%
Velo91.3
BTB Stuff110
Location98
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sweeper32%12487.924.6%
Fastball31%11198.314.8%
Curveball22%9882.513.7%
Sinker13%9497.98.6%
Cutter2%10993.215.6%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 208938%24%21%.148
Sep 1411329%19%13%.296
Sep 69946%16%21%.267

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Gavin Williams CLE · RHPvsKC lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCLE @ KC →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Maikel Garcia: every projection we've made →