MLBengine v14
← HOU at OAK, Sep 25, 2026
8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · OAK · batting 7Carlos Cortes
Bats leftTalent grade DBalancedNormal
.287wOBA vs RHP.252xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · HOUHunter Brown
Throws rightBTB Stuff 100Trending Up
6.1projected K27%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Hunter Brown's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 31% usage, 96.2 mph, +15.6″ arm side, +10.9″ rise. Carlos Cortes: wOBA .341 vs league .352 (about even).Sinker 31%Fastball: 30% usage, 96.3 mph, +8.5″ arm side, +16.3″ rise. Carlos Cortes: wOBA .337 vs league .348 (about even).Fastball 30%Curveball: 19% usage, 83.6 mph, -6.1″ arm side, -16.4″ rise. Carlos Cortes: wOBA .284 vs league .296 (about even).Curveball 19%Changeup: 10% usage, 87.5 mph, +13.6″ arm side, +4.7″ rise. Carlos Cortes: wOBA .267 vs league .279 (about even).Changeup 10%Slider: 9% usage, 91.2 mph, -3.6″ arm side, +5.6″ rise. Carlos Cortes: wOBA .341 vs league .352 (about even).Slider 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Carlos Cortes's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Carlos Cortes's last 40 balls in playHit (12)Out (28)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 90.1 mph at -27°Out: 87.2 mph at 47°Out: 83.9 mph at -10°Out: 106.0 mph at 1°Home run: 103.4 mph at 35°Triple: 107.1 mph at 13°Double: 94.2 mph at 33°Out: 63.5 mph at 17°Out: 95.9 mph at -5°Out: 76.5 mph at 87°Out: 98.6 mph at 18°Out: 72.1 mph at 82°Out: 88.2 mph at -19°Out: 94.7 mph at 25°Out: 92.3 mph at 9°Out: 63.0 mph at -20°Out: 97.3 mph at 26°Out: 76.4 mph at 63°Out: 96.0 mph at 23°Single: 71.0 mph at 39°Out: 90.1 mph at 28°Single: 87.9 mph at 20°Out: 93.0 mph at -14°Out: 78.0 mph at 67°Out: 74.9 mph at 9°Out: 65.2 mph at -12°Home run: 99.4 mph at 26°Out: 86.3 mph at 0°Out: 103.9 mph at 6°Single: 75.7 mph at 20°Single: 67.6 mph at 4°Out: 66.3 mph at -53°Out: 81.6 mph at 66°Out: 81.8 mph at 84°Single: 102.4 mph at 12°Out: 95.3 mph at 41°Single: 26.5 mph at -43°Out: 77.8 mph at 61°Out: 90.9 mph at -14°Single: 98.1 mph at 17°
30% hit 95+ mph35% in the sweet spot30% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit57.8%57.6%+0.2
2+ total bases32.1%31.2%+1.0
Home run8.6%7.8%+0.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-2.0
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
+2.3
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.6
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+2.6
Home run
Starter
-0.6
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+1.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Carlos Cortes hits
Carlos Cortes · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .233 shrunk (raw .133 on 5 PA) · league .274 · 18 pitches seen.233xwOBA .304 shrunk (raw .300 on 9 PA) · league .307 · 31 pitches seen.304xwOBA .240 shrunk (raw .171 on 4 PA) · league .263 · 17 pitches seen.240xwOBA .285 shrunk (raw .222 on 11 PA) · league .342 · 44 pitches seen.285xwOBA .313 shrunk (raw .240 on 12 PA) · league .386 · 43 pitches seen.313xwOBA .322 shrunk (raw .322 on 15 PA) · league .321 · 31 pitches seen.322xwOBA .249 shrunk (raw .194 on 13 PA) · league .308 · 32 pitches seen.249xwOBA .342 shrunk (raw .337 on 20 PA) · league .351 · 51 pitches seen.342xwOBA .337 shrunk (raw .381 on 12 PA) · league .292 · 33 pitches seen.337xwOBA .431 shrunk (raw .503 on 9 PA) · league .377 · 68 pitches seen.431xwOBA .252 shrunk (raw .214 on 7 PA) · league .274 · 35 pitches seen.252xwOBA .193 shrunk (raw .141 on 16 PA) · league .263 · 74 pitches seen.193xwOBA .169 shrunk (raw .114 on 23 PA) · league .274 · 143 pitches seen.169
vs RHP · 620 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 18% of 11 swings · league 22%18%Whiff 20% of 25 swings · league 20%20%Whiff 18% of 11 swings · league 19%18%Whiff 14% of 29 swings · league 10%14%Whiff 15% of 33 swings · league 9%15%Whiff 4% of 27 swings · league 11%4%Whiff 16% of 19 swings · league 14%16%Whiff 9% of 34 swings · league 13%9%Whiff 13% of 23 swings · league 17%13%Whiff 19% of 16 swings · league 28%19%Whiff 15% of 20 swings · league 24%15%Whiff 43% of 21 swings · league 32%43%Whiff 61% of 44 swings · league 49%61%
vs RHP · 620 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 61% of 18 pitches · league 62%61%Swings at 81% of 31 pitches · league 72%81%Swings at 65% of 17 pitches · league 66%65%Swings at 66% of 44 pitches · league 70%66%Swings at 77% of 43 pitches · league 76%77%Swings at 87% of 31 pitches · league 70%87%Swings at 59% of 32 pitches · league 65%59%Swings at 67% of 51 pitches · league 68%67%Swings at 70% of 33 pitches · league 60%70%Swings at 24% of 68 pitches · league 24%24%Swings at 57% of 35 pitches · league 34%57%Swings at 28% of 74 pitches · league 40%28%Swings at 31% of 143 pitches · league 32%31%
vs RHP · 620 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Carlos Cortes against each of Hunter Brown's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker31%96.2+16″ / +11″.341.35215.9%15.6%37About league average vs these
Fastball30%96.3+9″ / +16″.337.34818.0%17.6%35About league average vs these
Curveball19%83.6-6″ / -16″.284.29633.2%32.5%7Little history vs this shape
Changeup10%87.5+14″ / +5″.267.27928.3%27.1%12About league average vs these
Slider9%91.2-4″ / +6″.341.35221.5%21.1%29About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Carlos Cortes · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G59.375.4441.000.578.36522.2%11.1%26.1%96.3107.116.7%50.0%16.7%
Last 15 G1540.243.300.486.336.29410.0%7.5%15.0%85.8107.16.1%27.3%36.4%
Last 30 G3087.244.287.390.297.25320.7%5.7%21.5%85.6107.14.7%28.1%37.5%
90 days57156.238.288.385.294.25022.4%6.4%22.4%87.3107.53.6%30.9%39.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 110 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 23%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G11.000.000.000.000.000100.0%0.0%66.7%–––––
Last 15 G33.000.000.000.000.00266.7%0.0%71.4%78.078.00.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 30 G55.200.200.200.180.14740.0%0.0%50.0%72.978.00.0%0.0%33.3%
90 days1212.167.167.167.150.11225.0%0.0%36.8%78.3102.10.0%11.1%11.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 9 balls in play
Ground 67%Line drive 11%Fly ball 11%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G510.333.400.889.520.32830.0%10.0%30.8%96.3107.116.7%50.0%16.7%
Last 15 G1543.225.279.450.313.27414.0%7.0%19.5%85.6107.15.9%26.5%35.3%
Last 30 G3092.241.283.379.291.24821.7%5.4%23.0%85.0107.14.5%26.9%37.3%
90 days57168.232.280.368.284.24022.6%6.0%23.2%86.6107.53.4%29.4%37.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 119 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 22%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 13%
Carlos Cortes · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating8Bottom tier
Last 100 pitches10steady
wOBA / xwOBA.279 / .258running 21 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball95.890.1-27.037Single
Sep 24RHPSlider87.187.247.000Out
Sep 23RHPSinker101.083.9-10.096Out
Sep 23RHPSinker101.9106.01.484Out
Sep 22RHPFastball97.3103.4351.106Home run
Sep 22RHPSinker96.4107.113.863Triple
Sep 19RHPFastball93.794.233.163Double
Sep 19RHPFastball94.263.517.304Out
Sep 19RHPSinker93.895.9-5.217Out
Sep 16RHPFastball92.176.587.003Out
Sep 16RHPCutter88.298.618.393Out
Sep 16RHPSinker91.172.182.003Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25211010
Sep 24300002
Sep 23200000
Sep 22227100
Sep 20100001
Sep 19312000
Sep 16300000
Sep 15300001
Sep 13400010
Sep 12411000

Two strikes

Hunter Brown HOU · RHPwith two strikes
Hunter Brown with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball30%28%22.7%21.1%18.0%
Curveball19%28%42.2%23.8%20.0%
Sinker31%25%13.4%20.4%17.0%
Slider9%10%12.0%19.5%21.1%
Changeup10%7%35.7%16.7%18.6%
Sweeper1%1%50.0%20.0%19.3%
Cutter2%1%100.0%33.3%17.9%
Carlos Cortes bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Carlos Cortes with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%40.4%41.0%
Whiff%19.8%21.3%
Contact%80.2%78.7%
Chase%44.2%39.6%
wOBA.246.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes20.1%21.6%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.312
K%22.8%
BB%5.2%
Whiff%11.5%
Barrel%4.2%
Hard-hit%24.4%
Avg EV87.4

Against right-handers, last 90 days

155 PA
wOBA.287
xwOBA vs this mix.252against pitches like his
RV/100-0.70
Hard-hit%22.2%
K%23.2%
BB%5.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Hunter BrownRHP · HOU vs OAK
6.1projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 23.4 batters over 5.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 14.9%15%≤34 strikeouts: 13.1%13%45 strikeouts: 15.9%16%56 strikeouts: 15.9%16%67 strikeouts: 13.8%14%78 strikeouts: 10.4%10%89+ strikeouts: 16.0%16%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 56% (red bars) · under: 44%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%26.5%
BB%11.5%
Whiff%11.0%
Velo92.4
BTB Stuff100
Location98
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker31%11596.29.0%
Fastball30%8996.28.1%
Curveball19%9583.516.3%
Changeup10%9187.514.8%
Slider9%10291.09.9%
Cutter2%10293.017.4%
Sweeper1%7687.520.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209848%17%19%.238
Sep 159150%15%15%.212
Sep 99033%11%24%.352

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Hunter Brown HOU · RHPvsOAK lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameHOU @ OAK →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Carlos Cortes: every projection we've made →