MLBengine v14
← HOU at OAK, Sep 25, 2026
8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · OAK · batting 1Henry Bolte
Bats rightTalent grade CBalancedCold
.338wOBA vs RHP.307xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · HOUHunter Brown
Throws rightBTB Stuff 100Trending Up
6.1projected K27%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Hunter Brown's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 31% usage, 96.2 mph, +15.6″ arm side, +10.9″ rise. Henry Bolte: wOBA .353 vs league .347 (about even).Sinker 31%Fastball: 30% usage, 96.3 mph, +8.5″ arm side, +16.3″ rise. Henry Bolte: wOBA .356 vs league .351 (about even).Fastball 30%Curveball: 19% usage, 83.6 mph, -6.1″ arm side, -16.4″ rise. Henry Bolte: wOBA .279 vs league .273 (about even).Curveball 19%Changeup: 10% usage, 87.5 mph, +13.6″ arm side, +4.7″ rise. Henry Bolte: wOBA .277 vs league .271 (about even).Changeup 10%Slider: 9% usage, 91.2 mph, -3.6″ arm side, +5.6″ rise. Henry Bolte: wOBA .322 vs league .316 (about even).Slider 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Henry Bolte's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Henry Bolte's last 40 balls in playHit (19)Out (21)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 87.4 mph at -14°Out: 101.9 mph at -13°Single: 106.4 mph at -3°Triple: 103.2 mph at 25°Out: 91.9 mph at -8°Out: 96.2 mph at 24°Double: 115.1 mph at 14°Double: 77.0 mph at 0°Out: 66.8 mph at 62°Single: 84.9 mph at 1°Single: 53.9 mph at -41°Out: 97.6 mph at 23°Double: 104.0 mph at 11°Single: 91.9 mph at 14°Out: 99.6 mph at -21°Single: 104.0 mph at -9°Out: 52.6 mph at 4°Out: 90.3 mph at -7°Out: 109.8 mph at -12°Out: 98.1 mph at 22°Out: 97.2 mph at 60°Single: 106.3 mph at -2°Out: 61.6 mph at -38°Out: 80.9 mph at 1°Home run: 103.5 mph at 28°Single: 113.7 mph at 11°Out: 94.4 mph at 47°Single: 89.5 mph at 8°Out: 78.6 mph at 73°Out: 91.4 mph at 1°Out: 53.8 mph at -47°Single: 95.7 mph at -11°Home run: 108.7 mph at 28°Out: 107.9 mph at 3°Single: 56.4 mph at -48°Single: 50.3 mph at -69°Home run: 104.2 mph at 25°Out: 102.9 mph at -9°Single: 82.3 mph at 17°Out: 109.6 mph at -10°
53% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot48% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit58.0%58.8%-0.7
2+ total bases31.7%31.9%-0.1
Home run10.4%10.4%+0.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-3.1
Pitch mix
+0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+2.4
2+ total bases
Starter
-2.7
Pitch mix
+0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+2.7
Home run
Starter
-1.5
Pitch mix
+0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+1.6

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Henry Bolte hits
Henry Bolte · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw .274 on 12 PA) · league .274 · 34 pitches seen.274xwOBA .330 shrunk (raw .352 on 13 PA) · league .307 · 32 pitches seen.330xwOBA .329 shrunk (raw .593 on 3 PA) · league .263 · 15 pitches seen.329xwOBA .293 shrunk (raw .261 on 18 PA) · league .342 · 39 pitches seen.293xwOBA .456 shrunk (raw .503 on 18 PA) · league .386 · 47 pitches seen.456xwOBA .388 shrunk (raw .427 on 21 PA) · league .321 · 54 pitches seen.388xwOBA .244 shrunk (raw .168 on 10 PA) · league .308 · 34 pitches seen.244xwOBA .272 shrunk (raw .208 on 15 PA) · league .351 · 47 pitches seen.272xwOBA .247 shrunk (raw .225 on 25 PA) · league .292 · 57 pitches seen.247xwOBA .358 shrunk (raw .349 on 26 PA) · league .377 · 101 pitches seen.358xwOBA .309 shrunk (raw .370 on 7 PA) · league .274 · 57 pitches seen.309xwOBA .269 shrunk (raw .273 on 19 PA) · league .263 · 71 pitches seen.269xwOBA .265 shrunk (raw .260 on 23 PA) · league .274 · 227 pitches seen.265
vs RHP · 815 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 15% of 27 swings · league 22%15%Whiff 16% of 25 swings · league 20%16%Whiff 56% of 9 swings · league 19%56%Whiff 9% of 34 swings · league 10%9%Whiff 7% of 41 swings · league 9%7%Whiff 7% of 41 swings · league 11%7%Whiff 25% of 20 swings · league 14%25%Whiff 16% of 32 swings · league 13%16%Whiff 22% of 36 swings · league 17%22%Whiff 35% of 43 swings · league 28%35%Whiff 38% of 16 swings · league 24%38%Whiff 53% of 36 swings · league 32%53%Whiff 69% of 55 swings · league 49%69%
vs RHP · 815 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 79% of 34 pitches · league 62%79%Swings at 78% of 32 pitches · league 72%78%Swings at 60% of 15 pitches · league 66%60%Swings at 87% of 39 pitches · league 70%87%Swings at 87% of 47 pitches · league 76%87%Swings at 76% of 54 pitches · league 70%76%Swings at 59% of 34 pitches · league 65%59%Swings at 68% of 47 pitches · league 68%68%Swings at 63% of 57 pitches · league 60%63%Swings at 43% of 101 pitches · league 24%43%Swings at 28% of 57 pitches · league 34%28%Swings at 51% of 71 pitches · league 40%51%Swings at 24% of 227 pitches · league 32%24%
vs RHP · 815 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Henry Bolte against each of Hunter Brown's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker31%96.2+16″ / +11″.353.34714.3%11.6%68About league average vs these
Fastball30%96.3+9″ / +16″.356.35121.5%18.5%70About league average vs these
Curveball19%83.6-6″ / -16″.279.27341.7%31.4%5Little history vs this shape
Changeup10%87.5+14″ / +5″.277.27140.3%32.8%15About league average vs these
Slider9%91.2-4″ / +6″.322.31635.9%26.0%25About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Henry Bolte · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.389.421.611.467.32726.3%5.3%22.2%92.4115.116.7%50.0%33.3%
Last 15 G1559.308.390.500.395.33332.2%8.5%29.5%89.3115.115.6%46.9%28.1%
Last 30 G30115.314.391.490.397.33530.4%8.7%29.2%90.6115.19.1%51.5%31.8%
90 days69214.270.352.392.347.31626.2%7.9%28.4%89.6115.16.1%47.7%27.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 132 balls in play
Ground 68%Line drive 17%Fly ball 11%Pop-up 3%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G35.200.200.400.250.26540.0%0.0%20.0%89.5104.00.0%66.7%66.7%
Last 15 G47.143.143.286.179.19342.9%0.0%25.0%91.4104.00.0%75.0%50.0%
Last 30 G923.278.435.667.459.43430.4%17.4%21.4%93.0109.618.2%54.5%54.5%
90 days4199.247.323.449.364.34631.3%8.1%30.1%90.6113.613.8%50.0%37.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 58 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 28%Fly ball 14%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G524.348.375.565.420.31329.2%4.2%21.7%91.9115.113.3%53.3%40.0%
Last 15 G1566.288.364.475.372.31833.3%7.6%29.0%89.5115.113.9%50.0%30.6%
Last 30 G30138.308.399.517.407.35230.4%10.1%28.0%90.9115.110.4%51.9%35.1%
90 days75313.263.343.410.353.32627.8%8.0%28.9%89.9115.18.4%48.4%30.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 190 balls in play
Ground 63%Line drive 21%Fly ball 12%Pop-up 5%
Henry Bolte · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating54Average
Last 100 pitches16trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.339 / .320running 19 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSinker95.887.4-14.121Out
Sep 25RHPFastball95.6101.9-13.298Out
Sep 25RHPFastball91.6106.4-3.370Single
Sep 25RHPFastball95.7103.2251.331Triple
Sep 25RHPSinker95.691.9-8.251Out
Sep 24RHPFastball95.496.224.335Out
Sep 23RHPSinker98.7115.114.891Double
Sep 23RHPSinker101.077.00.125Double
Sep 23LHPChangeup78.966.862.003Out
Sep 23RHPSlider87.984.91.263Single
Sep 23RHPSinker100.853.9-41.161Single
Sep 22LHPFastball92.397.623.413Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25524000
Sep 24500004
Sep 23546000
Sep 22512011
Sep 20411002
Sep 19511000
Sep 18400011
Sep 17411011
Sep 16414102
Sep 15411003

Two strikes

Hunter Brown HOU · RHPwith two strikes
Hunter Brown with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball30%28%22.7%21.1%18.0%
Curveball19%28%42.2%23.8%20.0%
Sinker31%25%13.4%20.4%17.0%
Slider9%10%12.0%19.5%21.1%
Changeup10%7%35.7%16.7%18.6%
Sweeper1%1%50.0%20.0%19.3%
Cutter2%1%100.0%33.3%17.9%
Henry Bolte bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Henry Bolte with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%48.5%42.4%
Whiff%25.6%22.2%
Contact%74.4%77.8%
Chase%31.0%39.9%
wOBA.238.237
Whiff vs his put-away shapes24.5%21.3%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.335
K%28.2%
BB%8.0%
Whiff%14.3%
Barrel%4.8%
Hard-hit%28.1%
Avg EV89.5

Against right-handers, last 90 days

211 PA
wOBA.338
xwOBA vs this mix.307against pitches like his
RV/1000.18
Hard-hit%28.2%
K%27.2%
BB%8.0%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Hunter BrownRHP · HOU vs OAK
6.1projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 23.4 batters over 5.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 14.9%15%≤34 strikeouts: 13.1%13%45 strikeouts: 15.9%16%56 strikeouts: 15.9%16%67 strikeouts: 13.8%14%78 strikeouts: 10.4%10%89+ strikeouts: 16.0%16%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 56% (red bars) · under: 44%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%26.5%
BB%11.5%
Whiff%11.0%
Velo92.4
BTB Stuff100
Location98
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker31%11596.29.0%
Fastball30%8996.28.1%
Curveball19%9583.516.3%
Changeup10%9187.514.8%
Slider9%10291.09.9%
Cutter2%10293.017.4%
Sweeper1%7687.520.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209848%17%19%.238
Sep 159150%15%15%.212
Sep 99033%11%24%.352

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Hunter Brown HOU · RHPvsOAK lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameHOU @ OAK →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Henry Bolte: every projection we've made →