MLBengine v14
← HOU at OAK, Sep 25, 2026
8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · OAK · batting 9Jonah Heim
Switch hitterTalent grade FBalancedCold
.214wOBA vs RHP.261xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · HOUHunter Brown
Throws rightBTB Stuff 100Trending Up
6.1projected K27%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Hunter Brown's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 31% usage, 96.2 mph, +15.6″ arm side, +10.9″ rise. Jonah Heim: wOBA .316 vs league .352 (pitcher's edge).Sinker 31%Fastball: 30% usage, 96.3 mph, +8.5″ arm side, +16.3″ rise. Jonah Heim: wOBA .311 vs league .348 (pitcher's edge).Fastball 30%Curveball: 19% usage, 83.6 mph, -6.1″ arm side, -16.4″ rise. Jonah Heim: wOBA .259 vs league .296 (pitcher's edge).Curveball 19%Changeup: 10% usage, 87.5 mph, +13.6″ arm side, +4.7″ rise. Jonah Heim: wOBA .242 vs league .279 (pitcher's edge).Changeup 10%Slider: 9% usage, 91.2 mph, -3.6″ arm side, +5.6″ rise. Jonah Heim: wOBA .316 vs league .352 (pitcher's edge).Slider 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jonah Heim's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jonah Heim's last 40 balls in playHit (7)Out (33)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 55.7 mph at 10°Out: 93.3 mph at -24°Single: 105.6 mph at 13°Single: 105.9 mph at 6°Out: 62.1 mph at -28°Double: 78.3 mph at -5°Out: 96.9 mph at 17°Out: 95.6 mph at 32°Out: 96.9 mph at -20°Out: 55.5 mph at -81°Out: 58.1 mph at -12°Out: 68.9 mph at 71°Out: 74.0 mph at -16°Out: 84.3 mph at -10°Double: 95.3 mph at 19°Out: 95.5 mph at -23°Out: 63.3 mph at -26°Out: 93.4 mph at 18°Out: 95.5 mph at -1°Out: 84.0 mph at -4°Out: 68.7 mph at -28°Out: 81.5 mph at 39°Out: 56.6 mph at 51°Out: 61.9 mph at 42°Single: 71.2 mph at 29°Out: 76.2 mph at 40°Out: 93.8 mph at 19°Out: 92.1 mph at -16°Single: 91.9 mph at 9°Out: 70.2 mph at 4°Out: 83.9 mph at -23°Out: 88.5 mph at -16°Out: 94.2 mph at 27°Out: 94.8 mph at 16°Out: 83.3 mph at 30°Out: 92.5 mph at 3°Out: 85.2 mph at -19°Single: 100.8 mph at 5°Out: 82.3 mph at -18°Out: 76.7 mph at -26°
23% hit 95+ mph30% in the sweet spot18% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit55.0%55.7%-0.8
2+ total bases29.4%29.1%+0.2
Home run9.2%8.6%+0.6
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-2.0
Pitch mix
-1.1
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+2.3
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.4
Pitch mix
-0.9
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+2.5
Home run
Starter
-0.5
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+1.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Jonah Heim hits
Jonah Heim · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .202 shrunk (raw .123 on 11 PA) · league .274 · 31 pitches seen.202xwOBA .235 shrunk (raw .157 on 11 PA) · league .307 · 38 pitches seen.235xwOBA .269 shrunk (raw .278 on 7 PA) · league .263 · 24 pitches seen.269xwOBA .307 shrunk (raw .255 on 8 PA) · league .342 · 26 pitches seen.307xwOBA .412 shrunk (raw .439 on 12 PA) · league .386 · 45 pitches seen.412xwOBA .301 shrunk (raw .286 on 16 PA) · league .321 · 41 pitches seen.301xwOBA .265 shrunk (raw .190 on 7 PA) · league .308 · 24 pitches seen.265xwOBA .357 shrunk (raw .365 on 10 PA) · league .351 · 30 pitches seen.357xwOBA .259 shrunk (raw .214 on 9 PA) · league .292 · 38 pitches seen.259xwOBA .290 shrunk (raw .238 on 20 PA) · league .377 · 92 pitches seen.290xwOBA .278 shrunk (raw .282 on 15 PA) · league .274 · 67 pitches seen.278xwOBA .212 shrunk (raw .171 on 15 PA) · league .263 · 60 pitches seen.212xwOBA .261 shrunk (raw .250 on 15 PA) · league .274 · 83 pitches seen.261
vs RHP · 599 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 21% of 19 swings · league 22%21%Whiff 24% of 25 swings · league 20%24%Whiff 12% of 17 swings · league 19%12%Whiff 7% of 15 swings · league 10%7%Whiff 10% of 31 swings · league 9%10%Whiff 4% of 26 swings · league 11%4%Whiff 33% of 15 swings · league 14%33%Whiff 6% of 16 swings · league 13%6%Whiff 29% of 21 swings · league 17%29%Whiff 26% of 31 swings · league 28%26%Whiff 14% of 28 swings · league 24%14%Whiff 19% of 26 swings · league 32%19%Whiff 43% of 28 swings · league 49%43%
vs RHP · 599 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 61% of 31 pitches · league 62%61%Swings at 66% of 38 pitches · league 72%66%Swings at 71% of 24 pitches · league 66%71%Swings at 58% of 26 pitches · league 70%58%Swings at 69% of 45 pitches · league 76%69%Swings at 63% of 41 pitches · league 70%63%Swings at 63% of 24 pitches · league 65%63%Swings at 53% of 30 pitches · league 68%53%Swings at 55% of 38 pitches · league 60%55%Swings at 34% of 92 pitches · league 24%34%Swings at 42% of 67 pitches · league 34%42%Swings at 43% of 60 pitches · league 40%43%Swings at 34% of 83 pitches · league 32%34%
vs RHP · 599 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Jonah Heim against each of Hunter Brown's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker31%96.2+16″ / +11″.316.35216.3%15.6%39Struggles with these
Fastball30%96.3+9″ / +16″.311.34818.5%17.6%53Struggles with these
Curveball19%83.6-6″ / -16″.259.29628.8%32.5%4Struggles with these (thin: mostly his wider profile)
Changeup10%87.5+14″ / +5″.242.27923.1%27.1%12Struggles with these
Slider9%91.2-4″ / +6″.316.35218.6%21.1%17Struggles with these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jonah Heim · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.182.250.273.238.2780.0%8.3%0.0%80.9105.60.0%36.4%45.5%
Last 15 G1443.122.163.146.145.22616.3%4.7%16.4%82.2105.60.0%17.6%35.3%
Last 30 G2778.123.179.192.183.24015.4%6.4%14.6%85.3105.61.6%24.6%32.8%
90 days57157.143.191.224.195.25119.7%4.5%19.5%86.8105.63.4%31.9%33.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 116 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 18%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G45.500.600.750.570.3110.0%20.0%12.5%84.2105.90.0%50.0%0.0%
Last 15 G612.273.333.455.342.2198.3%8.3%8.7%87.8105.90.0%50.0%20.0%
Last 30 G1232.321.406.536.408.28512.5%12.5%12.1%88.8105.94.2%45.8%33.3%
90 days3598.256.316.433.337.31616.3%8.2%18.8%88.5107.48.1%37.8%36.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 74 balls in play
Ground 49%Line drive 22%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.267.353.400.335.2870.0%11.8%3.7%81.8105.90.0%40.0%33.3%
Last 15 G1555.154.200.212.188.22414.5%5.5%14.6%83.5105.90.0%25.0%31.8%
Last 30 G30110.178.245.287.249.25314.5%8.2%13.9%86.3105.92.4%30.6%32.9%
90 days65255.186.239.304.250.27618.4%5.9%19.2%87.5107.45.3%34.2%34.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 190 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 20%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 13%
Jonah Heim · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating35Below average
Last 100 pitches2trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.255 / .302running 46 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSinker96.755.710.097Out
Sep 25RHPSweeper87.193.3-24.068Out
Sep 25RHPFastball91.1105.613.883Single
Sep 25LHPSlider83.6105.96.553Single
Sep 24RHPFastball93.662.1-28.056Out
Sep 24LHPFastball92.678.3-5.065Double
Sep 24RHPSlider88.296.917.557Out
Sep 23RHPSlider89.495.632.362Out
Sep 22LHPFastball92.096.9-20.119Out
Sep 22LHPSlider85.855.5-81.121Out
Sep 22RHPSlider84.558.1-12.070Out
Sep 22RHPSlider85.768.971.000Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25422000
Sep 24412010
Sep 23200010
Sep 22400000
Sep 20312000
Sep 18300001
Sep 17400000
Sep 15300001
Sep 12411001
Sep 11411001

Two strikes

Hunter Brown HOU · RHPwith two strikes
Hunter Brown with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball30%28%22.7%21.1%18.0%
Curveball19%28%42.2%23.8%20.0%
Sinker31%25%13.4%20.4%17.0%
Slider9%10%12.0%19.5%21.1%
Changeup10%7%35.7%16.7%18.6%
Sweeper1%1%50.0%20.0%19.3%
Cutter2%1%100.0%33.3%17.9%
Jonah Heim bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Jonah Heim with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%38.9%41.0%
Whiff%19.7%21.3%
Contact%80.3%78.7%
Chase%48.2%39.6%
wOBA.223.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes20.0%21.6%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.266
K%19.2%
BB%6.6%
Whiff%10.1%
Barrel%4.2%
Hard-hit%25.2%
Avg EV87.6

Against right-handers, last 90 days

155 PA
wOBA.214
xwOBA vs this mix.261against pitches like his
RV/100-2.31
Hard-hit%23.7%
K%20.2%
BB%6.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Hunter BrownRHP · HOU vs OAK
6.1projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 23.4 batters over 5.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 14.9%15%≤34 strikeouts: 13.1%13%45 strikeouts: 15.9%16%56 strikeouts: 15.9%16%67 strikeouts: 13.8%14%78 strikeouts: 10.4%10%89+ strikeouts: 16.0%16%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 56% (red bars) · under: 44%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%26.5%
BB%11.5%
Whiff%11.0%
Velo92.4
BTB Stuff100
Location98
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker31%11596.29.0%
Fastball30%8996.28.1%
Curveball19%9583.516.3%
Changeup10%9187.514.8%
Slider9%10291.09.9%
Cutter2%10293.017.4%
Sweeper1%7687.520.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209848%17%19%.238
Sep 159150%15%15%.212
Sep 99033%11%24%.352

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Hunter Brown HOU · RHPvsOAK lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameHOU @ OAK →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jonah Heim: every projection we've made →