MLBengine v14
← LAD at SF, Sep 25, 2026
9:15 PM CT · Oracle Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · SF · batting 5Andrew Knizner
Bats rightTalent grade AvgBalancedHot
.279wOBA vs LHP.275xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · LADTarik Skubal
Throws leftBTB Stuff 111Trending Down
8.3projected K30%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Tarik Skubal's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 39% usage, 96.8 mph, +2.8″ arm side, +16.8″ rise. Andrew Knizner: wOBA .308 vs league .317 (about even).Fastball 39%Changeup: 25% usage, 87.9 mph, +14.0″ arm side, +4.7″ rise. Andrew Knizner: wOBA .315 vs league .323 (about even).Changeup 25%Sinker: 16% usage, 96.6 mph, +12.7″ arm side, +12.4″ rise. Andrew Knizner: wOBA .344 vs league .352 (about even).Sinker 16%Slider: 14% usage, 89.9 mph, -3.4″ arm side, +4.4″ rise. Andrew Knizner: wOBA .314 vs league .322 (about even).Slider 14%Curveball: 6% usage, 80.6 mph, -8.5″ arm side, -4.8″ rise. Andrew Knizner: wOBA .288 vs league .296 (about even).Curveball 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Andrew Knizner's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Andrew Knizner's last 40 balls in playHit (12)Out (28)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 94.6 mph at 52°Out: 89.2 mph at 33°Out: 86.7 mph at 37°Double: 102.2 mph at 4°Out: 74.7 mph at -6°Out: 87.4 mph at 52°Single: 97.4 mph at 0°Out: 107.6 mph at 5°Single: 66.0 mph at 45°Out: 98.1 mph at 37°Out: 94.7 mph at 35°Out: 101.8 mph at 8°Single: 105.7 mph at -8°Out: 80.9 mph at 71°Out: 75.6 mph at 75°Single: 81.9 mph at 11°Out: 98.4 mph at -8°Single: 103.9 mph at 15°Single: 34.2 mph at 42°Out: 89.4 mph at 62°Single: 91.5 mph at -10°Out: 80.9 mph at -16°Out: 79.3 mph at 69°Out: 78.6 mph at 25°Home run: 105.2 mph at 26°Double: 104.6 mph at 11°Out: 48.2 mph at -34°Out: 82.3 mph at 28°Out: 92.2 mph at -21°Out: 61.5 mph at 32°Out: 87.2 mph at 9°Out: 87.9 mph at -42°Out: 102.5 mph at 5°Out: 61.3 mph at -17°Out: 97.3 mph at 28°Single: 104.7 mph at 6°Out: 80.2 mph at -14°Double: 99.3 mph at 26°Out: 87.6 mph at 74°Out: 99.6 mph at -14°
38% hit 95+ mph28% in the sweet spot30% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit54.6%58.3%-3.7
2+ total bases27.6%31.3%-3.6
Home run6.6%9.0%-2.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.3
Pitch mix
-1.2
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-0.9
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.0
Pitch mix
-1.1
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-1.3
Home run
Starter
-0.6
Pitch mix
-0.4
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-1.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Andrew Knizner hits
Andrew Knizner · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .243 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .243 · 5 pitches seenxwOBA .274 shrunk (raw .008 on 1 PA) · league .296 · 5 pitches seen.274xwOBA .278 shrunk (raw .318 on 7 PA) · league .254 · 13 pitches seen.278xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw .173 on 4 PA) · league .308 · 6 pitches seen.274xwOBA .344 shrunk (raw .275 on 7 PA) · league .385 · 14 pitches seen.344xwOBA .272 shrunk (raw .066 on 4 PA) · league .340 · 9 pitches seen.272xwOBA .306 shrunk (raw .501 on 2 PA) · league .273 · 7 pitches seen.306xwOBA .323 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .350 · 12 pitches seen.323xwOBA .300 shrunk (raw .304 on 2 PA) · league .299 · 5 pitches seen.300xwOBA .244 shrunk (raw .013 on 3 PA) · league .302 · 10 pitches seen.244xwOBA .390 shrunk (raw .524 on 4 PA) · league .346 · 35 pitches seen.390xwOBA .260 shrunk (raw .083 on 2 PA) · league .289 · 17 pitches seen.260xwOBA .216 shrunk (raw .171 on 11 PA) · league .257 · 36 pitches seen.216
vs LHP · 174 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 21%25%Whiff 0% of 8 swings · league 23%0%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 10% of 10 swings · league 10%10%Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 17% of 6 swings · league 17%17%Whiff 38% of 8 swings · league 14%38%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 16%0%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 25%14%Whiff 50% of 6 swings · league 29%50%Whiff 0% of 6 swings · league 48%0%Whiff 23% of 22 swings · league 34%23%
vs LHP · 174 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 80% of 5 pitches · league 63%80%Swings at 80% of 5 pitches · league 71%80%Swings at 62% of 13 pitches · league 64%62%Swings at 67% of 6 pitches · league 67%67%Swings at 71% of 14 pitches · league 76%71%Swings at 78% of 9 pitches · league 72%78%Swings at 86% of 7 pitches · league 59%86%Swings at 67% of 12 pitches · league 68%67%Swings at 40% of 5 pitches · league 66%40%Swings at 70% of 10 pitches · league 30%70%Swings at 17% of 35 pitches · league 26%17%Swings at 35% of 17 pitches · league 31%35%Swings at 61% of 36 pitches · league 41%61%
vs LHP · 174 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Andrew Knizner against each of Tarik Skubal's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball39%96.8+3″ / +17″.308.31715.4%18.2%12About league average vs these
Changeup25%87.9+14″ / +5″.315.32322.5%27.8%11About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker16%96.6+13″ / +12″.344.35214.8%17.6%12About league average vs these
Slider14%89.9-3″ / +4″.314.32216.9%21.2%6Little history vs this shape
Curveball6%80.6-9″ / -5″.288.29623.7%29.1%4Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Andrew Knizner · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G59.333.333.444.339.15711.1%0.0%11.8%88.2102.20.0%25.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1227.280.333.360.311.23918.5%7.4%18.2%84.1105.70.0%35.0%25.0%
Last 30 G2348.178.229.289.231.22716.7%6.2%16.0%85.0106.62.7%29.7%21.6%
90 days2348.178.229.289.231.22716.7%6.2%16.0%85.0106.62.7%29.7%21.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 37 balls in play
Ground 32%Line drive 11%Fly ball 35%Pop-up 22%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G45.000.200.000.140.32420.0%0.0%28.6%97.7107.60.0%66.7%0.0%
Last 15 G1219.176.263.353.274.33815.8%0.0%25.0%89.4107.67.1%28.6%28.6%
Last 30 G1830.308.400.500.393.36716.7%3.3%28.9%90.5107.69.5%38.1%28.6%
90 days1830.308.400.500.393.36716.7%3.3%28.9%90.5107.69.5%38.1%28.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 21 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 5%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.231.286.308.268.21714.3%0.0%16.7%90.8107.60.0%36.4%0.0%
Last 15 G1546.238.304.357.296.28017.4%4.3%20.7%86.3107.62.9%32.4%26.5%
Last 30 G2778.225.295.366.294.28116.7%5.1%20.1%87.0107.65.2%32.8%24.1%
90 days2778.225.295.366.294.28116.7%5.1%20.1%87.0107.65.2%32.8%24.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 58 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 9%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 19%
Andrew Knizner · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating37Below average
Last 100 pitches84trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.308 / .303results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPFastball95.094.652.008Out
Sep 25LHPFastball96.789.233.028Out
Sep 25LHPChangeup89.786.737.021Out
Sep 23LHPChangeup86.6102.24.554Double
Sep 23LHPChangeup86.774.7-6.051Out
Sep 23RHPFastball95.787.452.003Out
Sep 22LHPCutter92.597.40.326Single
Sep 21RHPSinker93.5107.65.590Double play
Sep 21LHPSinker91.766.045.219Single
Sep 20RHPSlider85.498.137.297Out
Sep 20LHPFastball97.594.735.207Out
Sep 19LHPSlider87.8101.88.608Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25300000
Sep 23312000
Sep 22211000
Sep 21211000
Sep 20400002
Sep 19411000
Sep 18211000
Sep 16533000
Sep 14300010
Sep 13214100

Two strikes

Tarik Skubal LAD · LHPwith two strikes
Tarik Skubal with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball39%38%26.4%24.3%18.6%
Changeup25%36%41.1%26.1%18.3%
Sinker16%11%13.8%16.7%17.7%
Slider14%8%17.4%22.9%21.6%
Curveball6%7%45.0%33.3%21.2%
Andrew Knizner bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Andrew Knizner with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%39.6%41.5%
Whiff%19.0%21.6%
Contact%81.0%78.4%
Chase%41.5%39.9%
wOBA.248.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes17.7%20.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.313
K%17.6%
BB%7.3%
Whiff%10.3%
Barrel%3.3%
Hard-hit%23.2%
Avg EV86.4

Against left-handers, last 90 days

45 PA
wOBA.279
xwOBA vs this mix.275against pitches like his
RV/100-1.06
Hard-hit%25.2%
K%19.9%
BB%6.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Tarik SkubalLHP · LAD vs SF
8.3projected strikeouts · likely 5 to 12 · 24.2 batters over 5.7 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 3.6%4%≤34 strikeouts: 5.0%5%45 strikeouts: 8.2%8%56 strikeouts: 11.3%11%67 strikeouts: 13.3%13%78 strikeouts: 13.8%14%89+ strikeouts: 44.8%45%9+book 7.5
Over 7.5: 59% (red bars) · under: 41%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%30.3%
BB%5.2%
Whiff%15.8%
Velo92.6
BTB Stuff111
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball39%12496.814.1%
Changeup25%9787.926.5%
Sinker16%10696.77.5%
Slider14%11689.910.1%
Curveball6%8980.517.6%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 198612%13%24%.485
Sep 149038%16%13%.142
Sep 89419%11%26%.259

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Tarik Skubal LAD · LHPvsSF lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAD @ SF →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Andrew Knizner: every projection we've made →