MLBengine v14
← LAD at SF, Sep 25, 2026
9:15 PM CT · Oracle Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · SF · batting 4Bo Davidson
Bats leftTalent grade AvgBalancedNormal
.322wOBA vs LHP.331xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · LADTarik Skubal
Throws leftBTB Stuff 111Trending Down
8.3projected K30%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Tarik Skubal's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 39% usage, 96.8 mph, +2.8″ arm side, +16.8″ rise. Bo Davidson: wOBA .333 vs league .332 (about even).Fastball 39%Changeup: 25% usage, 87.9 mph, +14.0″ arm side, +4.7″ rise. Bo Davidson: wOBA .329 vs league .328 (about even).Changeup 25%Sinker: 16% usage, 96.6 mph, +12.7″ arm side, +12.4″ rise. Bo Davidson: wOBA .336 vs league .334 (about even).Sinker 16%Slider: 14% usage, 89.9 mph, -3.4″ arm side, +4.4″ rise. Bo Davidson: wOBA .326 vs league .325 (about even).Slider 14%Curveball: 6% usage, 80.6 mph, -8.5″ arm side, -4.8″ rise. Bo Davidson: wOBA .274 vs league .273 (about even).Curveball 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Bo Davidson's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Bo Davidson's last 9 balls in playHit (4)Out (5)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 54.1 mph at 6°Out: 70.2 mph at 19°Single: 102.3 mph at -4°Out: 61.7 mph at -32°Out: 87.0 mph at 2°Single: 105.1 mph at 10°Out: 74.3 mph at 6°Out: 101.9 mph at -2°Single: 103.8 mph at 18°
44% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot44% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit58.2%62.3%-4.0
2+ total bases28.6%33.3%-4.7
Home run6.4%10.6%-4.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-2.8
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
-0.9
2+ total bases
Starter
-2.9
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
-1.3
Home run
Starter
-2.6
Pitch mix
-0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-1.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Bo Davidson hits
Bo Davidson · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .243 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .243 · 1 pitches seenxwOBA .296 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .296 · 0 pitches seenxwOBA .254 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .254 · 1 pitches seenxwOBA .308 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .308 · 1 pitches seenxwOBA .392 shrunk (raw .434 on 2 PA) · league .385 · 2 pitches seen.392xwOBA .340 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .340 · 1 pitches seenxwOBA .273 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .273 · 1 pitches seenxwOBA .351 shrunk (raw .369 on 1 PA) · league .350 · 2 pitches seen.351xwOBA .299 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .299 · 1 pitches seenxwOBA .302 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .302 · 1 pitches seenxwOBA .346 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .346 · 2 pitches seenxwOBA .291 shrunk (raw .297 on 3 PA) · league .289 · 5 pitches seen.291xwOBA .237 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .257 · 1 pitches seen.237
vs LHP · 19 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff – of 0 swings · league 19%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 21%Whiff 100% of 1 swings · league 23%100%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 9%Whiff 50% of 2 swings · league 10%50%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 11%0%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 17%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 16%0%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 25%Whiff 50% of 2 swings · league 29%50%Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 48%25%Whiff 100% of 1 swings · league 34%100%
vs LHP · 19 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 0% of 1 pitches · league 63%0%Swings at – of 0 pitches · league 71%Swings at 100% of 1 pitches · league 64%100%Swings at 0% of 1 pitches · league 67%0%Swings at 100% of 2 pitches · league 76%100%Swings at 100% of 1 pitches · league 72%100%Swings at 0% of 1 pitches · league 59%0%Swings at 50% of 2 pitches · league 68%50%Swings at 100% of 1 pitches · league 66%100%Swings at 0% of 1 pitches · league 30%0%Swings at 100% of 2 pitches · league 26%100%Swings at 80% of 5 pitches · league 31%80%Swings at 100% of 1 pitches · league 41%100%
vs LHP · 19 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Bo Davidson against each of Tarik Skubal's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball39%96.8+3″ / +17″.333.33223.4%25.3%1Little history vs this shape
Changeup25%87.9+14″ / +5″.329.32816.6%17.3%1Little history vs this shape
Sinker16%96.6+13″ / +12″.336.33411.5%12.6%2Little history vs this shape
Slider14%89.9-3″ / +4″.326.32527.3%28.1%1Little history vs this shape
Curveball6%80.6-9″ / -5″.274.27329.4%30.1%1Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Bo Davidson · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G37.429.429.429.386.30428.6%0.0%38.5%78.7105.10.0%40.0%40.0%
Last 15 G37.429.429.429.386.30428.6%0.0%38.5%78.7105.10.0%40.0%40.0%
Last 30 G37.429.429.429.386.30428.6%0.0%38.5%78.7105.10.0%40.0%40.0%
90 days37.429.429.429.386.30428.6%0.0%38.5%78.7105.10.0%40.0%40.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 5 balls in play
Ground 60%Line drive 40%Fly ball 0%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G27.167.286.167.229.32728.6%14.3%23.1%91.8103.80.0%50.0%25.0%
Last 15 G27.167.286.167.229.32728.6%14.3%23.1%91.8103.80.0%50.0%25.0%
Last 30 G27.167.286.167.229.32728.6%14.3%23.1%91.8103.80.0%50.0%25.0%
90 days27.167.286.167.229.32728.6%14.3%23.1%91.8103.80.0%50.0%25.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 4 balls in play
Ground 75%Line drive 25%Fly ball 0%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G414.308.357.308.307.31628.6%7.1%30.8%84.5105.10.0%44.4%33.3%
Last 15 G414.308.357.308.307.31628.6%7.1%30.8%84.5105.10.0%44.4%33.3%
Last 30 G414.308.357.308.307.31628.6%7.1%30.8%84.5105.10.0%44.4%33.3%
90 days414.308.357.308.307.31628.6%7.1%30.8%84.5105.10.0%44.4%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 9 balls in play
Ground 67%Line drive 33%Fly ball 0%Pop-up 0%
FormNormal
Contact rating–percentile of xwOBA
Last 100 pitches–
wOBA / xwOBA.311 / .383running 71 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit3/3
2+ total bases0/3
Home run0/3

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 9 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPSlider90.954.16.104Single
Sep 23LHPCurveball85.670.219.728Out
Sep 23LHPSinker95.6102.3-4.369Single
Sep 23LHPSlider89.261.7-32.058Out
Sep 22RHPFastball95.987.02.320Out
Sep 22LHPFastball93.9105.110.869Single
Sep 21RHPChangeup85.974.36.252Out
Sep 21RHPFastball95.7101.9-2.414Out
Sep 21RHPCutter91.0103.818.608Single
Last 4 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25311002
Sep 23311000
Sep 22411011
Sep 21411001

Two strikes

Tarik Skubal LAD · LHPwith two strikes
Tarik Skubal with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball39%38%26.4%24.3%18.6%
Changeup25%36%41.1%26.1%18.3%
Sinker16%11%13.8%16.7%17.7%
Slider14%8%17.4%22.9%21.6%
Curveball6%7%45.0%33.3%21.2%
Bo Davidson bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Bo Davidson with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%42.7%44.1%
Whiff%22.3%22.7%
Contact%77.7%77.3%
Chase%38.0%38.2%
wOBA.222.224
Whiff vs his put-away shapes20.8%21.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.315
K%22.8%
BB%8.0%
Whiff%10.5%
Barrel%4.9%
Hard-hit%26.4%
Avg EV88.5

Against left-handers, last 90 days

4 PA
wOBA.322
xwOBA vs this mix.331against pitches like his
RV/1000.07
Hard-hit%28.1%
K%21.4%
BB%8.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Tarik SkubalLHP · LAD vs SF
8.3projected strikeouts · likely 5 to 12 · 24.2 batters over 5.7 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 3.6%4%≤34 strikeouts: 5.0%5%45 strikeouts: 8.2%8%56 strikeouts: 11.3%11%67 strikeouts: 13.3%13%78 strikeouts: 13.8%14%89+ strikeouts: 44.8%45%9+book 7.5
Over 7.5: 59% (red bars) · under: 41%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%30.3%
BB%5.2%
Whiff%15.8%
Velo92.6
BTB Stuff111
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball39%12496.814.1%
Changeup25%9787.926.5%
Sinker16%10696.77.5%
Slider14%11689.910.1%
Curveball6%8980.517.6%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 198612%13%24%.485
Sep 149038%16%13%.142
Sep 89419%11%26%.259

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Tarik Skubal LAD · LHPvsSF lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAD @ SF →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Bo Davidson: every projection we've made →