MLBengine v14
← LAD at SF, Sep 25, 2026
9:15 PM CT · Oracle Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · SF · batting 9Christian Koss
Bats rightTalent grade FBalancedCold
.313wOBA vs LHP.254xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · LADTarik Skubal
Throws leftBTB Stuff 111Trending Down
8.3projected K30%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Tarik Skubal's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 39% usage, 96.8 mph, +2.8″ arm side, +16.8″ rise. Christian Koss: wOBA .314 vs league .317 (about even).Fastball 39%Changeup: 25% usage, 87.9 mph, +14.0″ arm side, +4.7″ rise. Christian Koss: wOBA .321 vs league .323 (about even).Changeup 25%Sinker: 16% usage, 96.6 mph, +12.7″ arm side, +12.4″ rise. Christian Koss: wOBA .350 vs league .352 (about even).Sinker 16%Slider: 14% usage, 89.9 mph, -3.4″ arm side, +4.4″ rise. Christian Koss: wOBA .320 vs league .322 (about even).Slider 14%Curveball: 6% usage, 80.6 mph, -8.5″ arm side, -4.8″ rise. Christian Koss: wOBA .293 vs league .296 (about even).Curveball 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Christian Koss's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Christian Koss's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 40.3 mph at 1°Out: 31.0 mph at 15°Out: 83.2 mph at 50°Single: 47.1 mph at -36°Out: 28.4 mph at -45°Double: 101.7 mph at 12°Out: 76.3 mph at -36°Out: 89.0 mph at -20°Out: 40.7 mph at -57°Out: 55.1 mph at -25°Out: 94.3 mph at 37°Out: 100.3 mph at -8°Out: 86.8 mph at -4°Out: 72.6 mph at 38°Out: 65.9 mph at 69°Single: 83.7 mph at 1°Out: 100.0 mph at 4°Single: 89.7 mph at 4°Out: 100.9 mph at 1°Single: 64.4 mph at 28°Single: 99.3 mph at 14°Out: 65.5 mph at 8°Out: 82.0 mph at -27°Out: 83.1 mph at 30°Single: 96.9 mph at 10°Single: 84.2 mph at -2°Out: 78.6 mph at -33°Out: 83.3 mph at 9°Single: 75.2 mph at 14°Out: 98.4 mph at 19°Single: 86.8 mph at 13°Single: 58.4 mph at 31°Out: 88.4 mph at 55°Home run: 100.2 mph at 35°Single: 65.7 mph at 39°Out: 65.1 mph at 7°Out: 70.9 mph at 30°Single: 87.4 mph at 5°Out: 65.2 mph at -4°Out: 89.1 mph at 29°
20% hit 95+ mph35% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit51.1%54.4%-3.3
2+ total bases22.3%25.0%-2.8
Home run5.1%6.7%-1.6
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.6
Pitch mix
-0.5
Bullpen
-0.4
Park
-0.9
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.9
Pitch mix
-0.4
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
-1.1
Home run
Starter
-0.3
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-1.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Christian Koss hits
Christian Koss · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .169 shrunk (raw .022 on 6 PA) · league .243 · 7 pitches seen.169xwOBA .282 shrunk (raw .228 on 3 PA) · league .296 · 12 pitches seen.282xwOBA .245 shrunk (raw .193 on 2 PA) · league .254 · 7 pitches seen.245xwOBA .345 shrunk (raw .420 on 6 PA) · league .308 · 14 pitches seen.345xwOBA .380 shrunk (raw .359 on 3 PA) · league .385 · 18 pitches seen.380xwOBA .326 shrunk (raw .271 on 3 PA) · league .340 · 10 pitches seen.326xwOBA .310 shrunk (raw .456 on 3 PA) · league .273 · 10 pitches seen.310xwOBA .327 shrunk (raw .190 on 2 PA) · league .350 · 8 pitches seen.327xwOBA .287 shrunk (raw .257 on 5 PA) · league .299 · 10 pitches seen.287xwOBA .324 shrunk (raw .458 on 2 PA) · league .302 · 16 pitches seen.324xwOBA .349 shrunk (raw .355 on 5 PA) · league .346 · 34 pitches seen.349xwOBA .210 shrunk (raw .104 on 9 PA) · league .289 · 33 pitches seen.210xwOBA .187 shrunk (raw .083 on 8 PA) · league .257 · 38 pitches seen.187
vs LHP · 217 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 43% of 7 swings · league 19%43%Whiff 11% of 9 swings · league 21%11%Whiff 20% of 5 swings · league 23%20%Whiff 8% of 12 swings · league 9%8%Whiff 23% of 13 swings · league 10%23%Whiff 25% of 8 swings · league 11%25%Whiff 29% of 7 swings · league 17%29%Whiff 0% of 6 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 33% of 9 swings · league 16%33%Whiff 0% of 5 swings · league 25%0%Whiff 20% of 10 swings · league 29%20%Whiff 53% of 15 swings · league 48%53%Whiff 60% of 20 swings · league 34%60%
vs LHP · 217 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 100% of 7 pitches · league 63%100%Swings at 75% of 12 pitches · league 71%75%Swings at 71% of 7 pitches · league 64%71%Swings at 86% of 14 pitches · league 67%86%Swings at 72% of 18 pitches · league 76%72%Swings at 80% of 10 pitches · league 72%80%Swings at 70% of 10 pitches · league 59%70%Swings at 75% of 8 pitches · league 68%75%Swings at 90% of 10 pitches · league 66%90%Swings at 31% of 16 pitches · league 30%31%Swings at 29% of 34 pitches · league 26%29%Swings at 46% of 33 pitches · league 31%46%Swings at 53% of 38 pitches · league 41%53%
vs LHP · 217 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Christian Koss against each of Tarik Skubal's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball39%96.8+3″ / +17″.314.31718.9%18.2%15About league average vs these
Changeup25%87.9+14″ / +5″.321.32334.9%27.8%12About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sinker16%96.6+13″ / +12″.350.35218.5%17.6%15About league average vs these
Slider14%89.9-3″ / +4″.320.32225.2%21.2%6Little history vs this shape
Curveball6%80.6-9″ / -5″.293.29634.1%29.1%4Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Christian Koss · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G47.167.167.167.183.13042.9%0.0%36.8%48.776.30.0%0.0%25.0%
Last 15 G1221.176.263.353.295.24428.6%9.5%35.0%67.6100.90.0%23.1%23.1%
Last 30 G1831.231.286.692.421.26625.8%6.5%29.8%71.6100.94.8%33.3%23.8%
90 days3761.214.241.446.308.22724.6%3.3%30.2%78.3103.62.3%30.2%23.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 43 balls in play
Ground 54%Line drive 12%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G49.125.125.250.181.15755.6%0.0%56.2%75.6101.70.0%25.0%25.0%
Last 15 G1331.333.333.367.318.26229.0%0.0%32.7%82.7101.70.0%22.7%40.9%
Last 30 G2877.261.301.275.288.26926.0%3.9%26.1%78.6105.60.0%22.6%45.3%
90 days51137.248.293.280.284.27027.0%5.1%26.1%81.6108.72.2%27.5%38.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 91 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 25%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.143.143.214.182.14550.0%0.0%45.7%62.1101.70.0%12.5%25.0%
Last 15 G1552.277.306.362.309.25528.8%3.8%33.7%77.1101.70.0%22.9%34.3%
Last 30 G30108.253.297.389.325.26825.9%4.6%27.2%76.6105.61.4%25.7%39.2%
90 days57198.238.277.331.291.25726.3%4.5%27.5%80.6108.72.2%28.4%33.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 134 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 21%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 8%
Christian Koss · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating14Poor
Last 100 pitches0trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.278 / .267results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPFastball96.440.31–Sac bunt
Sep 23LHPFastball96.731.015.327Out
Sep 22RHPFastball97.083.250.019Out
Sep 22LHPCutter92.647.1-36.194Single
Sep 22RHPFastball96.328.4-45–Sac bunt
Sep 21RHPFastball94.7101.712.936Double
Sep 21LHPCutter87.476.3-36.059Out
Sep 20RHPSlider86.389.0-20.100Out
Sep 19LHPFastball95.840.7-57–Sac bunt
Sep 19LHPFastball96.655.1-25.088Out
Sep 19RHPFastball97.494.337.111Out
Sep 19RHPFastball98.3100.3-8.268Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25300002
Sep 23300002
Sep 22411001
Sep 21312001
Sep 20300002
Sep 19400000
Sep 18300002
Sep 16411001
Sep 15533000
Sep 14400002

Two strikes

Tarik Skubal LAD · LHPwith two strikes
Tarik Skubal with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball39%38%26.4%24.3%18.6%
Changeup25%36%41.1%26.1%18.3%
Sinker16%11%13.8%16.7%17.7%
Slider14%8%17.4%22.9%21.6%
Curveball6%7%45.0%33.3%21.2%
Christian Koss bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Christian Koss with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.1%41.5%
Whiff%22.8%21.6%
Contact%77.2%78.4%
Chase%40.8%39.9%
wOBA.223.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes21.3%20.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.306
K%25.2%
BB%4.8%
Whiff%13.7%
Barrel%2.6%
Hard-hit%20.7%
Avg EV81.9

Against left-handers, last 90 days

58 PA
wOBA.313
xwOBA vs this mix.254against pitches like his
RV/1000.37
Hard-hit%23.2%
K%22.9%
BB%4.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Tarik SkubalLHP · LAD vs SF
8.3projected strikeouts · likely 5 to 12 · 24.2 batters over 5.7 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 3.6%4%≤34 strikeouts: 5.0%5%45 strikeouts: 8.2%8%56 strikeouts: 11.3%11%67 strikeouts: 13.3%13%78 strikeouts: 13.8%14%89+ strikeouts: 44.8%45%9+book 7.5
Over 7.5: 59% (red bars) · under: 41%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%30.3%
BB%5.2%
Whiff%15.8%
Velo92.6
BTB Stuff111
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball39%12496.814.1%
Changeup25%9787.926.5%
Sinker16%10696.77.5%
Slider14%11689.910.1%
Curveball6%8980.517.6%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 198612%13%24%.485
Sep 149038%16%13%.142
Sep 89419%11%26%.259

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Tarik Skubal LAD · LHPvsSF lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAD @ SF →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Christian Koss: every projection we've made →