MLBengine v14
← LAD at SF, Sep 25, 2026
9:15 PM CT · Oracle Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · SF · batting 1Jonah Cox
Bats rightTalent grade FBalancedCold
.353wOBA vs LHP.303xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · LADTarik Skubal
Throws leftBTB Stuff 111Trending Down
8.3projected K30%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Tarik Skubal's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 39% usage, 96.8 mph, +2.8″ arm side, +16.8″ rise. Jonah Cox: wOBA .320 vs league .317 (about even).Fastball 39%Changeup: 25% usage, 87.9 mph, +14.0″ arm side, +4.7″ rise. Jonah Cox: wOBA .326 vs league .323 (about even).Changeup 25%Sinker: 16% usage, 96.6 mph, +12.7″ arm side, +12.4″ rise. Jonah Cox: wOBA .355 vs league .352 (about even).Sinker 16%Slider: 14% usage, 89.9 mph, -3.4″ arm side, +4.4″ rise. Jonah Cox: wOBA .326 vs league .322 (about even).Slider 14%Curveball: 6% usage, 80.6 mph, -8.5″ arm side, -4.8″ rise. Jonah Cox: wOBA .299 vs league .296 (about even).Curveball 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jonah Cox's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jonah Cox's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 45.3 mph at -4°Out: 74.2 mph at -23°Out: 77.9 mph at 3°Out: 80.6 mph at 40°Out: 94.6 mph at 52°Out: 88.4 mph at 24°Out: 102.5 mph at 9°Double: 103.9 mph at 13°Out: 91.6 mph at 19°Out: 41.5 mph at -4°Out: 52.7 mph at -49°Single: 102.4 mph at 8°Single: 100.4 mph at 6°Single: 95.6 mph at 12°Single: 75.1 mph at 19°Out: 82.4 mph at 23°Single: 50.1 mph at -30°Single: 94.9 mph at 13°Out: 94.9 mph at 19°Single: 49.4 mph at -45°Out: 74.6 mph at -4°Single: 98.3 mph at 14°Out: 78.5 mph at 29°Out: 61.1 mph at 4°Out: 18.5 mph at -56°Out: 83.1 mph at -14°Single: 34.1 mph at -21°Single: 94.4 mph at 15°Out: 87.6 mph at -9°Out: 99.5 mph at -9°Single: 86.9 mph at -20°Out: 46.2 mph at -59°Out: 95.6 mph at -4°Out: 37.1 mph at -37°Out: 95.1 mph at 56°Out: 81.9 mph at 32°Single: 81.9 mph at -28°Out: 21.0 mph at -15°Single: 103.3 mph at -4°Out: 97.0 mph at 20°
28% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit54.4%58.0%-3.6
2+ total bases26.3%29.6%-3.4
Home run7.3%9.6%-2.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-2.2
Pitch mix
-0.0
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
-1.0
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.6
Pitch mix
-0.0
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
-1.4
Home run
Starter
-0.7
Pitch mix
-0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-1.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Jonah Cox hits
Jonah Cox · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .227 shrunk (raw .130 on 2 PA) · league .243 · 7 pitches seen.227xwOBA .273 shrunk (raw .204 on 4 PA) · league .296 · 14 pitches seen.273xwOBA .260 shrunk (raw .299 on 2 PA) · league .254 · 10 pitches seen.260xwOBA .368 shrunk (raw .487 on 6 PA) · league .308 · 10 pitches seen.368xwOBA .379 shrunk (raw .370 on 8 PA) · league .385 · 21 pitches seen.379xwOBA .364 shrunk (raw .405 on 7 PA) · league .340 · 19 pitches seen.364xwOBA .234 shrunk (raw .000 on 2 PA) · league .273 · 11 pitches seen.234xwOBA .316 shrunk (raw .236 on 5 PA) · league .350 · 19 pitches seen.316xwOBA .323 shrunk (raw .382 on 5 PA) · league .299 · 16 pitches seen.323xwOBA .340 shrunk (raw .569 on 2 PA) · league .302 · 13 pitches seen.340xwOBA .276 shrunk (raw .193 on 10 PA) · league .346 · 45 pitches seen.276xwOBA .293 shrunk (raw .299 on 7 PA) · league .289 · 44 pitches seen.293xwOBA .266 shrunk (raw .279 on 9 PA) · league .257 · 47 pitches seen.266
vs LHP · 276 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 17% of 6 swings · league 19%17%Whiff 33% of 12 swings · league 21%33%Whiff 71% of 7 swings · league 23%71%Whiff 22% of 9 swings · league 9%22%Whiff 11% of 18 swings · league 10%11%Whiff 46% of 13 swings · league 11%46%Whiff 33% of 3 swings · league 17%33%Whiff 20% of 10 swings · league 14%20%Whiff 27% of 11 swings · league 16%27%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 25%14%Whiff 38% of 16 swings · league 29%38%Whiff 53% of 15 swings · league 48%53%Whiff 50% of 14 swings · league 34%50%
vs LHP · 276 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 86% of 7 pitches · league 63%86%Swings at 86% of 14 pitches · league 71%86%Swings at 70% of 10 pitches · league 64%70%Swings at 90% of 10 pitches · league 67%90%Swings at 86% of 21 pitches · league 76%86%Swings at 68% of 19 pitches · league 72%68%Swings at 27% of 11 pitches · league 59%27%Swings at 53% of 19 pitches · league 68%53%Swings at 69% of 16 pitches · league 66%69%Swings at 54% of 13 pitches · league 30%54%Swings at 36% of 45 pitches · league 26%36%Swings at 34% of 44 pitches · league 31%34%Swings at 30% of 47 pitches · league 41%30%
vs LHP · 276 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Jonah Cox against each of Tarik Skubal's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball39%96.8+3″ / +17″.320.31729.0%18.2%17About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup25%87.9+14″ / +5″.326.32336.4%27.8%13About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sinker16%96.6+13″ / +12″.355.35228.1%17.6%25About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider14%89.9-3″ / +4″.326.32226.1%21.2%4Little history vs this shape
Curveball6%80.6-9″ / -5″.299.29635.2%29.1%6Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jonah Cox · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G39.000.222.000.156.20822.2%22.2%37.5%74.594.60.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1231.115.233.115.190.24735.5%12.9%36.7%75.7100.40.0%18.8%18.8%
Last 30 G2353.244.346.467.359.34034.0%13.2%34.7%85.7104.110.7%50.0%42.9%
90 days3071.226.304.419.346.30738.0%9.9%34.0%85.6104.110.8%45.9%40.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 37 balls in play
Ground 54%Line drive 16%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G312.091.167.182.162.23658.3%8.3%51.7%96.6103.90.0%50.0%100.0%
Last 15 G1334.300.323.333.342.31738.2%2.9%33.8%77.7103.90.0%31.6%52.6%
Last 30 G2462.291.328.309.319.25330.6%4.8%29.6%75.0103.90.0%25.6%33.3%
90 days2866.271.306.288.299.23734.8%4.5%30.2%75.0103.90.0%25.6%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 39 balls in play
Ground 59%Line drive 23%Fly ball 13%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.056.190.111.160.22442.9%14.3%46.7%84.3103.90.0%22.2%44.4%
Last 15 G1565.214.279.232.269.28336.9%7.7%35.2%76.8103.90.0%25.7%37.1%
Last 30 G30115.270.336.380.338.29432.2%8.7%31.9%79.5104.14.5%35.8%37.3%
90 days39137.248.305.355.323.27436.5%7.3%32.2%80.2104.15.3%35.5%36.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 76 balls in play
Ground 57%Line drive 20%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 5%
Jonah Cox · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating9Bottom tier
Last 100 pitches6steady
wOBA / xwOBA.299 / .259running 40 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPFastball97.945.3-4.185Out
Sep 25LHPChangeup89.674.2-23.046Out
Sep 23LHPCurveball84.677.93.220Out
Sep 23LHPCurveball84.680.640.021Out
Sep 23LHPChangeup85.794.652.008Out
Sep 22RHPCutter88.688.424.173Out
Sep 22RHPFastball94.6102.59.684Force out
Sep 21RHPFastball94.3103.913.875Double
Sep 20RHPSlider87.991.619.403Out
Sep 19LHPFastball95.641.5-4–Sac bunt
Sep 18RHPSinker92.952.7-49–Sac bunt
Sep 18RHPFastball95.7102.48.608Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400002
Sep 23400010
Sep 22500012
Sep 21412003
Sep 20400012
Sep 19400003
Sep 18411002
Sep 16533011
Sep 15511002
Sep 14411002

Two strikes

Tarik Skubal LAD · LHPwith two strikes
Tarik Skubal with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball39%38%26.4%24.3%18.6%
Changeup25%36%41.1%26.1%18.3%
Sinker16%11%13.8%16.7%17.7%
Slider14%8%17.4%22.9%21.6%
Curveball6%7%45.0%33.3%21.2%
Jonah Cox bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Jonah Cox with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%50.9%41.5%
Whiff%26.4%21.6%
Contact%73.6%78.4%
Chase%42.0%39.9%
wOBA.235.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes24.9%20.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.323
K%30.5%
BB%7.8%
Whiff%13.9%
Barrel%4.1%
Hard-hit%22.9%
Avg EV84.0

Against left-handers, last 90 days

67 PA
wOBA.353
xwOBA vs this mix.303against pitches like his
RV/1000.85
Hard-hit%25.0%
K%34.1%
BB%7.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Tarik SkubalLHP · LAD vs SF
8.3projected strikeouts · likely 5 to 12 · 24.2 batters over 5.7 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 3.6%4%≤34 strikeouts: 5.0%5%45 strikeouts: 8.2%8%56 strikeouts: 11.3%11%67 strikeouts: 13.3%13%78 strikeouts: 13.8%14%89+ strikeouts: 44.8%45%9+book 7.5
Over 7.5: 59% (red bars) · under: 41%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%30.3%
BB%5.2%
Whiff%15.8%
Velo92.6
BTB Stuff111
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball39%12496.814.1%
Changeup25%9787.926.5%
Sinker16%10696.77.5%
Slider14%11689.910.1%
Curveball6%8980.517.6%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 198612%13%24%.485
Sep 149038%16%13%.142
Sep 89419%11%26%.259

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Tarik Skubal LAD · LHPvsSF lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAD @ SF →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jonah Cox: every projection we've made →