MLBengine v14
← LAD at SF, Sep 25, 2026
9:15 PM CT · Oracle Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · SF · batting 8Scott Bandura
Bats leftTalent grade DBalancedNormal
.302wOBA vs LHP.271xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · LADTarik Skubal
Throws leftBTB Stuff 111Trending Down
8.3projected K30%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Tarik Skubal's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 39% usage, 96.8 mph, +2.8″ arm side, +16.8″ rise. Scott Bandura: wOBA .332 vs league .332 (about even).Fastball 39%Changeup: 25% usage, 87.9 mph, +14.0″ arm side, +4.7″ rise. Scott Bandura: wOBA .328 vs league .328 (about even).Changeup 25%Sinker: 16% usage, 96.6 mph, +12.7″ arm side, +12.4″ rise. Scott Bandura: wOBA .334 vs league .334 (about even).Sinker 16%Slider: 14% usage, 89.9 mph, -3.4″ arm side, +4.4″ rise. Scott Bandura: wOBA .325 vs league .325 (about even).Slider 14%Curveball: 6% usage, 80.6 mph, -8.5″ arm side, -4.8″ rise. Scott Bandura: wOBA .273 vs league .273 (about even).Curveball 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Scott Bandura's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Scott Bandura's last 10 balls in playHit (5)Out (5)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 87.0 mph at 20°Single: 97.2 mph at 10°Out: 82.5 mph at 32°Out: 76.9 mph at 45°Single: 79.3 mph at 14°Double: 100.1 mph at 18°Out: 75.9 mph at 61°Out: 70.1 mph at 52°Out: 77.1 mph at -21°Single: 51.9 mph at 26°
20% hit 95+ mph60% in the sweet spot50% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit47.9%52.5%-4.6
2+ total bases21.8%26.3%-4.4
Home run5.5%8.8%-3.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-2.5
Pitch mix
-0.6
Bullpen
-0.5
Park
-0.9
2+ total bases
Starter
-2.3
Pitch mix
-0.5
Bullpen
-0.5
Park
-1.2
Home run
Starter
-1.8
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
-1.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Scott Bandura hits
Scott Bandura · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .243 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .243 · 1 pitches seenxwOBA .296 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .296 · 0 pitches seenxwOBA .254 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .254 · 0 pitches seenxwOBA .286 shrunk (raw .028 on 1 PA) · league .308 · 4 pitches seen.286xwOBA .385 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .385 · 1 pitches seenxwOBA .314 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .340 · 3 pitches seen.314xwOBA .273 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .273 · 3 pitches seenxwOBA .350 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .350 · 1 pitches seenxwOBA .299 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .299 · 1 pitches seenxwOBA .274 shrunk (raw .160 on 3 PA) · league .302 · 6 pitches seen.274xwOBA .319 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .346 · 2 pitches seen.319xwOBA .278 shrunk (raw .234 on 3 PA) · league .289 · 10 pitches seen.278xwOBA .257 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .257 · 2 pitches seen
vs LHP · 34 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff – of 0 swings · league 19%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 21%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 23%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 100% of 1 swings · league 10%100%Whiff 50% of 2 swings · league 11%50%Whiff 50% of 2 swings · league 17%50%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 14%Whiff 100% of 1 swings · league 16%100%Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 25%25%Whiff 50% of 2 swings · league 29%50%Whiff 20% of 5 swings · league 48%20%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 34%0%
vs LHP · 34 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 0% of 1 pitches · league 63%0%Swings at – of 0 pitches · league 71%Swings at – of 0 pitches · league 64%Swings at 75% of 4 pitches · league 67%75%Swings at 100% of 1 pitches · league 76%100%Swings at 67% of 3 pitches · league 72%67%Swings at 67% of 3 pitches · league 59%67%Swings at 0% of 1 pitches · league 68%0%Swings at 100% of 1 pitches · league 66%100%Swings at 67% of 6 pitches · league 30%67%Swings at 100% of 2 pitches · league 26%100%Swings at 50% of 10 pitches · league 31%50%Swings at 100% of 2 pitches · league 41%100%
vs LHP · 34 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Scott Bandura against each of Tarik Skubal's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball39%96.8+3″ / +17″.332.33228.1%25.3%1Little history vs this shape
Changeup25%87.9+14″ / +5″.328.32818.6%17.3%1Little history vs this shape
Sinker16%96.6+13″ / +12″.334.33414.4%12.6%1Little history vs this shape
Slider14%89.9-3″ / +4″.325.32530.3%28.1%3Little history vs this shape
Curveball6%80.6-9″ / -5″.273.27332.3%30.1%3Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Scott Bandura · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G34.250.250.250.225.15050.0%0.0%36.4%84.887.00.0%0.0%100.0%
Last 15 G69.333.333.444.339.13544.4%0.0%31.8%79.5100.10.0%20.0%80.0%
Last 30 G69.333.333.444.339.13544.4%0.0%31.8%79.5100.10.0%20.0%80.0%
90 days69.333.333.444.339.13544.4%0.0%31.8%79.5100.10.0%20.0%80.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 5 balls in play
Ground 0%Line drive 40%Fly ball 40%Pop-up 20%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G58.125.125.125.112.09975.0%0.0%27.3%87.197.20.0%50.0%50.0%
Last 15 G916.133.188.133.156.14562.5%6.2%32.4%80.197.20.0%20.0%40.0%
Last 30 G916.133.188.133.156.14562.5%6.2%32.4%80.197.20.0%20.0%40.0%
90 days916.133.188.133.156.14562.5%6.2%32.4%80.197.20.0%20.0%40.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 5 balls in play
Ground 20%Line drive 40%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 20%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.167.167.167.150.11666.7%0.0%30.3%85.997.20.0%25.0%75.0%
Last 15 G1025.208.240.250.222.14156.0%4.0%32.1%79.8100.10.0%20.0%60.0%
Last 30 G1025.208.240.250.222.14156.0%4.0%32.1%79.8100.10.0%20.0%60.0%
90 days1025.208.240.250.222.14156.0%4.0%32.1%79.8100.10.0%20.0%60.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 10 balls in play
Ground 10%Line drive 40%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 20%
FormNormal
Contact rating–percentile of xwOBA
Last 100 pitches–
wOBA / xwOBA.213 / .135running 78 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/9
2+ total bases1/9
Home run0/9

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 10 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPChangeup91.287.020.564Single
Sep 22RHPSplitter89.997.210.708Single
Sep 21LHPSweeper77.782.532.038Out
Sep 20RHPCurveball78.076.945.083Out
Sep 18RHPSlider90.779.314.634Single
Sep 16LHPSlider85.3100.118.442Double
Sep 16LHPSlider85.075.961.028Out
Sep 16RHPChangeup81.670.152.141Out
Sep 16RHPChangeup85.777.1-21.053Out
Sep 13LHPSweeper84.251.926.139Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25311002
Sep 22211001
Sep 21300002
Sep 20300002
Sep 19100001
Sep 18211001
Sep 16412000
Sep 15100001
Sep 14200002
Sep 13411012

Two strikes

Tarik Skubal LAD · LHPwith two strikes
Tarik Skubal with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball39%38%26.4%24.3%18.6%
Changeup25%36%41.1%26.1%18.3%
Sinker16%11%13.8%16.7%17.7%
Slider14%8%17.4%22.9%21.6%
Curveball6%7%45.0%33.3%21.2%
Scott Bandura bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Scott Bandura with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%46.1%44.1%
Whiff%22.9%22.7%
Contact%77.1%77.3%
Chase%40.9%38.2%
wOBA.225.224
Whiff vs his put-away shapes21.4%21.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.309
K%26.7%
BB%7.7%
Whiff%11.2%
Barrel%4.6%
Hard-hit%24.2%
Avg EV87.4

Against left-handers, last 90 days

7 PA
wOBA.302
xwOBA vs this mix.271against pitches like his
RV/100-0.30
Hard-hit%22.8%
K%28.8%
BB%6.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Tarik SkubalLHP · LAD vs SF
8.3projected strikeouts · likely 5 to 12 · 24.2 batters over 5.7 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 3.6%4%≤34 strikeouts: 5.0%5%45 strikeouts: 8.2%8%56 strikeouts: 11.3%11%67 strikeouts: 13.3%13%78 strikeouts: 13.8%14%89+ strikeouts: 44.8%45%9+book 7.5
Over 7.5: 59% (red bars) · under: 41%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%30.3%
BB%5.2%
Whiff%15.8%
Velo92.6
BTB Stuff111
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball39%12496.814.1%
Changeup25%9787.926.5%
Sinker16%10696.77.5%
Slider14%11689.910.1%
Curveball6%8980.517.6%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 198612%13%24%.485
Sep 149038%16%13%.142
Sep 89419%11%26%.259

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Tarik Skubal LAD · LHPvsSF lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAD @ SF →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Scott Bandura: every projection we've made →