MLBengine v14
← LAD at SF, Sep 25, 2026
9:15 PM CT · Oracle Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · SF · batting 3Victor Bericoto
Bats rightTalent grade AvgPowerNormal
.314wOBA vs LHP.329xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · LADTarik Skubal
Throws leftBTB Stuff 111Trending Down
8.3projected K30%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Tarik Skubal's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 39% usage, 96.8 mph, +2.8″ arm side, +16.8″ rise. Victor Bericoto: wOBA .316 vs league .317 (about even).Fastball 39%Changeup: 25% usage, 87.9 mph, +14.0″ arm side, +4.7″ rise. Victor Bericoto: wOBA .323 vs league .323 (about even).Changeup 25%Sinker: 16% usage, 96.6 mph, +12.7″ arm side, +12.4″ rise. Victor Bericoto: wOBA .351 vs league .352 (about even).Sinker 16%Slider: 14% usage, 89.9 mph, -3.4″ arm side, +4.4″ rise. Victor Bericoto: wOBA .322 vs league .322 (about even).Slider 14%Curveball: 6% usage, 80.6 mph, -8.5″ arm side, -4.8″ rise. Victor Bericoto: wOBA .295 vs league .296 (about even).Curveball 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Victor Bericoto's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Victor Bericoto's last 40 balls in playHit (11)Out (29)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 70.1 mph at 65°Single: 105.8 mph at 11°Out: 103.0 mph at 1°Out: 51.9 mph at -68°Out: 99.8 mph at 6°Out: 97.6 mph at -12°Out: 99.6 mph at 18°Out: 90.9 mph at -30°Out: 89.7 mph at 70°Single: 93.4 mph at 14°Out: 102.5 mph at -16°Double: 104.9 mph at 19°Home run: 107.0 mph at 28°Out: 92.1 mph at 45°Out: 75.0 mph at 32°Single: 97.7 mph at -6°Out: 97.3 mph at 6°Out: 94.5 mph at 17°Out: 72.3 mph at -6°Out: 100.6 mph at 32°Out: 96.9 mph at 21°Out: 88.4 mph at -9°Single: 95.0 mph at -6°Out: 93.2 mph at 33°Out: 86.2 mph at -10°Out: 100.0 mph at 23°Out: 103.1 mph at 20°Out: 102.2 mph at 34°Single: 108.0 mph at 2°Out: 104.6 mph at 58°Out: 80.1 mph at 7°Single: 94.3 mph at 15°Out: 99.3 mph at -15°Out: 86.7 mph at 23°Out: 87.5 mph at 51°Out: 73.3 mph at 6°Single: 65.0 mph at 0°Out: 90.6 mph at 40°Single: 98.0 mph at 17°Single: 88.7 mph at 17°
50% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot28% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit59.5%62.7%-3.2
2+ total bases33.0%36.3%-3.4
Home run9.4%12.1%-2.6
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-2.2
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
-1.1
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.8
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
-1.7
Home run
Starter
-0.8
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-1.9

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Victor Bericoto hits
Victor Bericoto · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .247 shrunk (raw .293 on 1 PA) · league .243 · 7 pitches seen.247xwOBA .375 shrunk (raw .690 on 3 PA) · league .296 · 4 pitches seen.375xwOBA .269 shrunk (raw .361 on 2 PA) · league .254 · 4 pitches seen.269xwOBA .258 shrunk (raw .138 on 5 PA) · league .308 · 10 pitches seen.258xwOBA .457 shrunk (raw .600 on 6 PA) · league .385 · 10 pitches seen.457xwOBA .382 shrunk (raw .549 on 3 PA) · league .340 · 13 pitches seen.382xwOBA .234 shrunk (raw .000 on 2 PA) · league .273 · 3 pitches seen.234xwOBA .380 shrunk (raw .440 on 6 PA) · league .350 · 8 pitches seen.380xwOBA .307 shrunk (raw .358 on 2 PA) · league .299 · 6 pitches seen.307xwOBA .253 shrunk (raw .057 on 3 PA) · league .302 · 12 pitches seen.253xwOBA .343 shrunk (raw .328 on 2 PA) · league .346 · 20 pitches seen.343xwOBA .226 shrunk (raw .035 on 4 PA) · league .289 · 25 pitches seen.226xwOBA .285 shrunk (raw .352 on 5 PA) · league .257 · 28 pitches seen.285
vs LHP · 150 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 17% of 6 swings · league 19%17%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 21%0%Whiff 33% of 3 swings · league 23%33%Whiff 0% of 5 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 10%14%Whiff 11% of 9 swings · league 11%11%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 25% of 8 swings · league 14%25%Whiff 75% of 4 swings · league 16%75%Whiff 43% of 7 swings · league 25%43%Whiff 13% of 8 swings · league 29%13%Whiff 78% of 9 swings · league 48%78%Whiff 54% of 13 swings · league 34%54%
vs LHP · 150 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 86% of 7 pitches · league 63%86%Swings at 75% of 4 pitches · league 71%75%Swings at 75% of 4 pitches · league 64%75%Swings at 50% of 10 pitches · league 67%50%Swings at 70% of 10 pitches · league 76%70%Swings at 69% of 13 pitches · league 72%69%Swings at 33% of 3 pitches · league 59%33%Swings at 100% of 8 pitches · league 68%100%Swings at 67% of 6 pitches · league 66%67%Swings at 58% of 12 pitches · league 30%58%Swings at 40% of 20 pitches · league 26%40%Swings at 36% of 25 pitches · league 31%36%Swings at 46% of 28 pitches · league 41%46%
vs LHP · 150 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Victor Bericoto against each of Tarik Skubal's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball39%96.8+3″ / +17″.316.31719.7%18.2%7Little history vs this shape
Changeup25%87.9+14″ / +5″.323.32332.5%27.8%10About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sinker16%96.6+13″ / +12″.351.35218.6%17.6%9About league average vs these
Slider14%89.9-3″ / +4″.322.32227.7%21.2%7Little history vs this shape
Curveball6%80.6-9″ / -5″.295.29637.2%29.1%5Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Victor Bericoto · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G413.333.385.667.442.52015.4%7.7%29.2%93.6107.010.0%70.0%40.0%
Last 15 G1333.219.242.344.256.37724.2%3.0%36.2%93.6108.012.5%62.5%33.3%
Last 30 G1844.279.295.442.318.34322.7%2.3%32.5%91.9108.09.1%57.6%30.3%
90 days1844.279.295.442.318.34322.7%2.3%32.5%91.9108.09.1%57.6%30.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 33 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 18%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 3%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G38.000.125.000.175.15050.0%12.5%35.7%93.499.60.0%33.3%33.3%
Last 15 G717.062.118.062.135.19341.2%5.9%30.4%94.4104.60.0%44.4%44.4%
Last 30 G1436.171.194.257.219.25430.6%2.8%25.9%90.5104.68.3%41.7%45.8%
90 days1436.171.194.257.219.25430.6%2.8%25.9%90.5104.68.3%41.7%45.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 24 balls in play
Ground 29%Line drive 42%Fly ball 13%Pop-up 17%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.211.286.421.340.37928.6%9.5%32.7%93.6107.07.7%61.5%38.5%
Last 15 G1550.167.200.250.215.31530.0%4.0%33.7%93.8108.09.1%57.6%36.4%
Last 30 G2380.231.250.359.274.30326.2%2.5%29.2%91.3108.08.8%50.9%36.8%
90 days2380.231.250.359.274.30326.2%2.5%29.2%91.3108.08.8%50.9%36.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 57 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 28%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 9%
Victor Bericoto · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating59Average
Last 100 pitches91trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.267 / .326running 59 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases1/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPFastball96.170.165.007Out
Sep 25LHPFastball98.2105.811.939Single
Sep 23LHPChangeup85.1103.01.453Out
Sep 23LHPSinker92.951.9-68.181Out
Sep 23LHPSlider89.499.86.598Out
Sep 23LHPCutter88.997.6-12.141Out
Sep 22RHPFastball97.499.618.442Out
Sep 22RHPCutter90.590.9-30.059Fielder's choice
Sep 20RHPSlider86.889.770.004Out
Sep 20LHPSlider88.893.414.904Single
Sep 20LHPFastball97.2102.5-16.202Out
Sep 19LHPSlider91.1104.919.717Double
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25311001
Sep 23400000
Sep 22500012
Sep 20411001
Sep 19526112
Sep 18100000
Aug 23211000
Aug 22400001
Aug 21100001
Aug 20200000

Two strikes

Tarik Skubal LAD · LHPwith two strikes
Tarik Skubal with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball39%38%26.4%24.3%18.6%
Changeup25%36%41.1%26.1%18.3%
Sinker16%11%13.8%16.7%17.7%
Slider14%8%17.4%22.9%21.6%
Curveball6%7%45.0%33.3%21.2%
Victor Bericoto bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Victor Bericoto with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%42.4%41.5%
Whiff%22.3%21.6%
Contact%77.7%78.4%
Chase%40.1%39.9%
wOBA.250.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes20.8%20.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgPower type
wOBA.305
K%23.9%
BB%6.5%
Whiff%12.3%
Barrel%5.4%
Hard-hit%29.0%
Avg EV89.4

Against left-handers, last 90 days

41 PA
wOBA.314
xwOBA vs this mix.329against pitches like his
RV/100-0.41
Hard-hit%35.3%
K%22.7%
BB%4.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Tarik SkubalLHP · LAD vs SF
8.3projected strikeouts · likely 5 to 12 · 24.2 batters over 5.7 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 3.6%4%≤34 strikeouts: 5.0%5%45 strikeouts: 8.2%8%56 strikeouts: 11.3%11%67 strikeouts: 13.3%13%78 strikeouts: 13.8%14%89+ strikeouts: 44.8%45%9+book 7.5
Over 7.5: 59% (red bars) · under: 41%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%30.3%
BB%5.2%
Whiff%15.8%
Velo92.6
BTB Stuff111
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball39%12496.814.1%
Changeup25%9787.926.5%
Sinker16%10696.77.5%
Slider14%11689.910.1%
Curveball6%8980.517.6%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 198612%13%24%.485
Sep 149038%16%13%.142
Sep 89419%11%26%.259

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Tarik Skubal LAD · LHPvsSF lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAD @ SF →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Victor Bericoto: every projection we've made →