MLBengine v14
← NYM at WSH, Sep 25, 2026
5:45 PM CT · Nationals Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · WSH · batting 2Andrés Chaparro
Bats rightTalent grade CPowerCold
.408wOBA vs LHP.353xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · NYMJefry Yan
Throws leftBTB Stuff 122Stable
2.6projected K29%K%1.4trips vs this hitter
Jefry Yan's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 44% usage, 97.6 mph, +14.6″ arm side, +11.5″ rise. Andrés Chaparro: wOBA .374 vs league .356 (hitter's edge).Sinker 44%Fastball: 26% usage, 97.5 mph, +4.1″ arm side, +17.2″ rise. Andrés Chaparro: wOBA .331 vs league .313 (hitter's edge).Fastball 26%Slider: 21% usage, 86.4 mph, -4.6″ arm side, -3.2″ rise. Andrés Chaparro: wOBA .314 vs league .296 (hitter's edge).Slider 21%Changeup: 9% usage, 89.5 mph, +13.1″ arm side, +7.1″ rise. Andrés Chaparro: wOBA .332 vs league .314 (hitter's edge).Changeup 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Andrés Chaparro's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit61.1%60.2%+0.8
2+ total bases39.8%38.2%+1.6
Home run16.2%14.4%+1.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.8
Pitch mix
+0.9
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
+0.5
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.2
Pitch mix
+1.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
+0.6
Home run
Starter
+0.6
Pitch mix
+0.6
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Andrés Chaparro against each of Jefry Yan's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker44%97.6+15″ / +12″.374.35624.5%18.3%20About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Fastball26%97.5+4″ / +17″.331.31326.5%20.1%15About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider21%86.4-5″ / -3″.314.29639.4%33.5%12About league average vs these
Changeup9%89.5+13″ / +7″.332.31433.1%26.8%19About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormCold
Contact rating86Excellent
Last 100 pitches90steady
wOBA / xwOBA.414 / .358running 55 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

Jefry Yan NYM · LHPwith two strikes
Jefry Yan with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider21%40%42.1%27.8%21.6%
Fastball26%22%25.0%30.0%18.6%
Sinker44%22%9.1%10.0%17.7%
Changeup9%17%66.7%46.7%18.3%
Andrés Chaparro bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Andrés Chaparro with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%45.2%41.5%
Whiff%24.3%21.6%
Contact%75.7%78.4%
Chase%40.4%39.9%
wOBA.253.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes27.3%24.6%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCPower type
wOBA.340
K%24.3%
BB%8.6%
Whiff%15.1%
Barrel%7.2%
Hard-hit%27.0%
Avg EV88.9

Against left-handers, last 90 days

95 PA
wOBA.408
xwOBA vs this mix.353against pitches like his
RV/1002.12
Hard-hit%30.7%
K%24.0%
BB%9.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jefry YanLHP · NYM vs WSH
2.6projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 10.4 batters over 2.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 74.0%74%≤34 strikeouts: 14.0%14%45 strikeouts: 7.2%7%56 strikeouts: 3.1%3%67 strikeouts: 1.2%1%78 strikeouts: 0.4%0%89+ strikeouts: 0.1%0%9+book 2.5
Over 2.5: 48% (red bars) · under: 52%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%28.7%
BB%14.9%
Whiff%14.8%
Velo94.5
BTB Stuff122
Location94
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker44%12797.77.5%
Fastball26%12597.513.1%
Slider21%11786.423.2%
Changeup9%9889.035.5%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jefry Yan NYM · LHPvsWSH lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameNYM @ WSH →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Andrés Chaparro: every projection we've made →