MLBengine v14
← PIT at DET, Sep 25, 2026
5:40 PM CT · Comerica Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · DET · batting 4Eduardo Valencia
Bats rightTalent grade BPowerHot
.404wOBA vs RHP.377xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · PITBubba Chandler
Throws rightBTB Stuff 105Trending Down
5.0projected K21%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Bubba Chandler's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 47% usage, 98.2 mph, +10.2″ arm side, +16.6″ rise. Eduardo Valencia: wOBA .359 vs league .343 (hitter's edge).Fastball 47%Slider: 25% usage, 92.0 mph, -0.8″ arm side, +5.3″ rise. Eduardo Valencia: wOBA .333 vs league .317 (hitter's edge).Slider 25%Changeup: 11% usage, 91.1 mph, +16.3″ arm side, +6.2″ rise. Eduardo Valencia: wOBA .362 vs league .346 (hitter's edge).Changeup 11%Sinker: 10% usage, 97.6 mph, +14.9″ arm side, +11.6″ rise. Eduardo Valencia: wOBA .361 vs league .345 (hitter's edge).Sinker 10%Curveball: 6% usage, 87.3 mph, -1.3″ arm side, -1.9″ rise. Eduardo Valencia: wOBA .311 vs league .295 (hitter's edge).Curveball 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Eduardo Valencia's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Eduardo Valencia's last 40 balls in playHit (18)Out (22)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 63.9 mph at 28°Double: 106.3 mph at 13°Out: 87.1 mph at 8°Out: 104.8 mph at 30°Out: 61.3 mph at 0°Double: 82.7 mph at 8°Out: 96.8 mph at 16°Single: 88.2 mph at 13°Double: 101.2 mph at -1°Single: 91.7 mph at 18°Single: 97.4 mph at 16°Single: 106.9 mph at 3°Out: 97.2 mph at 36°Out: 57.7 mph at 13°Single: 100.4 mph at 7°Double: 99.8 mph at 19°Out: 96.3 mph at 45°Out: 93.1 mph at 59°Out: 103.2 mph at 1°Double: 107.3 mph at 20°Single: 72.3 mph at 24°Double: 98.4 mph at 18°Out: 83.4 mph at -6°Single: 91.3 mph at 24°Out: 103.2 mph at 35°Single: 91.9 mph at 23°Out: 97.0 mph at 39°Out: 79.3 mph at 12°Out: 91.8 mph at 0°Single: 71.5 mph at 10°Out: 101.3 mph at -4°Out: 75.7 mph at -4°Out: 91.2 mph at 6°Out: 82.3 mph at 8°Double: 103.8 mph at 27°Single: 106.1 mph at 14°Out: 85.9 mph at 8°Out: 103.1 mph at 2°Out: 67.7 mph at 80°Out: 84.3 mph at 78°
48% hit 95+ mph55% in the sweet spot45% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit67.0%67.5%-0.5
2+ total bases39.7%40.9%-1.2
Home run14.0%15.5%-1.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.6
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
+0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.3
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
-0.4
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
-1.6
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Eduardo Valencia hits
Eduardo Valencia · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .314 shrunk (raw .368 on 9 PA) · league .274 · 20 pitches seen.314xwOBA .334 shrunk (raw .441 on 3 PA) · league .307 · 10 pitches seen.334xwOBA .223 shrunk (raw .065 on 3 PA) · league .263 · 8 pitches seen.223xwOBA .406 shrunk (raw .598 on 4 PA) · league .342 · 12 pitches seen.406xwOBA .413 shrunk (raw .454 on 8 PA) · league .386 · 19 pitches seen.413xwOBA .407 shrunk (raw .522 on 9 PA) · league .321 · 21 pitches seen.407xwOBA .313 shrunk (raw .373 on 1 PA) · league .308 · 10 pitches seen.313xwOBA .404 shrunk (raw .618 on 3 PA) · league .351 · 9 pitches seen.404xwOBA .254 shrunk (raw .142 on 4 PA) · league .292 · 10 pitches seen.254xwOBA .370 shrunk (raw .362 on 10 PA) · league .377 · 36 pitches seen.370xwOBA .335 shrunk (raw .480 on 5 PA) · league .274 · 16 pitches seen.335xwOBA .314 shrunk (raw .466 on 4 PA) · league .263 · 18 pitches seen.314xwOBA .314 shrunk (raw .363 on 10 PA) · league .274 · 74 pitches seen.314
vs RHP · 263 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 13% of 16 swings · league 22%13%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 20%14%Whiff 60% of 5 swings · league 19%60%Whiff 17% of 12 swings · league 10%17%Whiff 0% of 14 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 18% of 17 swings · league 11%18%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 14%14%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 13%14%Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 18% of 11 swings · league 28%18%Whiff 25% of 8 swings · league 24%25%Whiff 30% of 10 swings · league 32%30%Whiff 50% of 18 swings · league 49%50%
vs RHP · 263 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 80% of 20 pitches · league 62%80%Swings at 70% of 10 pitches · league 72%70%Swings at 63% of 8 pitches · league 66%63%Swings at 100% of 12 pitches · league 70%100%Swings at 74% of 19 pitches · league 76%74%Swings at 81% of 21 pitches · league 70%81%Swings at 70% of 10 pitches · league 65%70%Swings at 78% of 9 pitches · league 68%78%Swings at 70% of 10 pitches · league 60%70%Swings at 31% of 36 pitches · league 24%31%Swings at 50% of 16 pitches · league 34%50%Swings at 56% of 18 pitches · league 40%56%Swings at 24% of 74 pitches · league 32%24%
vs RHP · 263 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Eduardo Valencia against each of Bubba Chandler's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball47%98.2+10″ / +17″.359.34318.0%19.0%16About league average vs these
Slider25%92.0-1″ / +5″.333.31722.1%25.5%21About league average vs these
Changeup11%91.1+16″ / +6″.362.34612.4%13.3%15About league average vs these
Sinker10%97.6+15″ / +12″.361.34511.4%12.3%20About league average vs these
Curveball6%87.3-1″ / -2″.311.29527.9%31.7%15About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Eduardo Valencia · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G411.556.636.667.568.6260.0%18.2%18.5%91.2106.911.1%66.7%55.6%
Last 15 G1336.419.486.548.461.4885.6%11.1%20.6%90.5106.910.3%51.7%51.7%
Last 30 G2459.340.397.472.387.42211.9%8.5%19.8%87.9106.915.2%50.0%43.5%
90 days3073.379.431.576.439.40912.3%6.8%20.9%88.2106.914.0%50.9%42.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 57 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 28%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G47.500.571.833.586.47228.6%14.3%40.0%91.1106.30.0%25.0%100.0%
Last 15 G1219.294.368.471.366.34426.3%5.3%25.6%88.9107.38.3%33.3%58.3%
Last 30 G2543.293.326.585.384.30437.2%2.3%29.2%91.3112.48.0%40.0%56.0%
90 days3356.315.339.667.437.32335.7%1.8%28.5%91.1112.411.8%41.2%58.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 34 balls in play
Ground 32%Line drive 35%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.533.611.733.575.56611.1%16.7%24.3%91.2106.97.7%53.8%69.2%
Last 15 G1555.375.444.521.428.43912.7%9.1%22.5%90.0107.39.8%46.3%53.7%
Last 30 G30102.319.366.521.386.37222.5%5.9%24.1%89.1112.412.7%46.5%47.9%
90 days39129.350.391.617.438.37122.5%4.7%24.5%89.3112.413.2%47.3%48.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 91 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 31%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 7%
Eduardo Valencia · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating97Top tier
Last 100 pitches100steady
wOBA / xwOBA.425 / .391running 34 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSinker97.863.928.725Single
Sep 25LHPFastball89.8106.313.883Double
Sep 22LHPChangeup85.387.18.451Force out
Sep 22RHPSlider86.2104.8301.645Out
Sep 22RHPSinker96.961.30.057Out
Sep 21LHPCurveball80.882.78.369Double
Sep 21RHPCutter91.996.816.679Out
Sep 21LHPChangeup81.788.213.902Single
Sep 21RHPCutter90.7101.2-1.373Double
Sep 20RHPSinker93.191.718.560Single
Sep 20RHPFastball91.897.416.679Single
Sep 20RHPCurveball81.5106.93.507Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25523030
Sep 23100001
Sep 22400001
Sep 21435000
Sep 20433000
Sep 19100000
Sep 18523001
Sep 15512010
Sep 12534010
Sep 8411000

Two strikes

Bubba Chandler PIT · RHPwith two strikes
Bubba Chandler with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball47%48%19.5%18.1%18.0%
Slider25%28%18.3%13.8%21.1%
Changeup11%13%16.7%14.0%18.6%
Curveball6%6%23.1%16.0%20.0%
Sinker10%5%11.1%26.3%17.0%
Sweeper1%1%–0.0%19.3%
Eduardo Valencia bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Eduardo Valencia with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%39.1%42.4%
Whiff%20.5%22.2%
Contact%79.5%77.8%
Chase%39.1%39.9%
wOBA.259.237
Whiff vs his put-away shapes18.5%19.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.356
K%23.2%
BB%5.5%
Whiff%12.0%
Barrel%7.0%
Hard-hit%29.9%
Avg EV89.0

Against right-handers, last 90 days

70 PA
wOBA.404
xwOBA vs this mix.377against pitches like his
RV/1001.66
Hard-hit%37.8%
K%15.8%
BB%3.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Bubba ChandlerRHP · PIT vs DET
5.0projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 22.3 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 27.2%27%≤34 strikeouts: 17.6%18%45 strikeouts: 17.5%18%56 strikeouts: 14.4%14%67 strikeouts: 10.2%10%78 strikeouts: 6.4%6%89+ strikeouts: 6.7%7%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 55% (red bars) · under: 45%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%21.2%
BB%9.8%
Whiff%8.0%
Velo95.1
BTB Stuff105
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball47%11098.29.6%
Slider25%10892.28.1%
Changeup11%8790.97.0%
Sinker10%9897.52.4%
Curveball6%9587.36.3%
Sweeper1%10387.90.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199029%10%29%.462
Sep 139013%3%30%.380
Sep 89538%15%29%.240

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Bubba Chandler PIT · RHPvsDET lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gamePIT @ DET →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Eduardo Valencia: every projection we've made →