MLBengine v14
← ATL at MIA, Sep 26, 2026
3:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup projected
Hitter · ATL · batting 4Michael Harris II
Bats leftTalent grade ——Normal
–wOBA vs RHP–xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · MIATBD
Stable
4.3projected K–K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Michael Harris II's last 40 balls in playHit (18)Out (22)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 36.3 mph at -73°Out: 100.6 mph at 37°Double: 110.3 mph at 12°Out: 101.9 mph at 24°Single: 96.3 mph at -32°Out: 96.7 mph at 25°Out: 74.8 mph at -1°Out: 99.3 mph at 42°Out: 96.4 mph at -10°Single: 107.7 mph at 10°Out: 61.6 mph at -1°Out: 110.3 mph at 4°Double: 110.8 mph at 16°Out: 90.4 mph at 71°Out: 77.3 mph at 5°Out: 84.6 mph at 63°Out: 85.3 mph at -9°Out: 77.6 mph at -31°Out: 72.3 mph at 49°Single: 109.2 mph at 6°Home run: 101.8 mph at 28°Out: 91.9 mph at 30°Single: 107.9 mph at -2°Single: 78.6 mph at 21°Out: 86.8 mph at 21°Out: 76.0 mph at 2°Out: 101.8 mph at 14°Out: 80.0 mph at -34°Out: 105.3 mph at -6°Single: 77.6 mph at 15°Out: 82.4 mph at -35°Single: 100.1 mph at -15°Out: 93.0 mph at 27°Single: 98.9 mph at 9°Single: 67.0 mph at 26°Single: 90.6 mph at 19°Single: 91.2 mph at -9°Home run: 101.5 mph at 30°Single: 95.7 mph at 4°Single: 98.7 mph at 11°
50% hit 95+ mph43% in the sweet spot45% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit68.0%68.0%+0.1
2+ total bases41.3%41.4%-0.1
Home run11.5%12.2%-0.7
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.6
Park
-0.5
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.8
Park
-0.9
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.6
Park
-1.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Michael Harris II · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.333.385.500.454.3910.0%7.7%13.0%89.0110.816.7%50.0%25.0%
Last 15 G1441.250.268.450.329.3439.8%2.4%15.2%90.6110.811.1%41.7%38.9%
Last 30 G2781.286.312.545.391.35416.0%3.7%19.2%89.5110.810.8%44.6%40.0%
90 days71218.281.300.486.346.31019.7%2.8%20.7%90.9110.86.5%48.2%32.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 168 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 20%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.143.250.143.200.3790.0%12.5%27.8%89.0110.30.0%57.1%28.6%
Last 15 G1123.381.435.381.374.36813.0%8.7%24.4%88.7110.30.0%38.9%44.4%
Last 30 G2141.289.325.368.338.30719.5%4.9%21.7%84.5110.30.0%38.7%41.9%
90 days57113.276.312.429.335.31914.2%4.4%19.8%83.8112.84.4%38.9%32.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 90 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 23%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.263.333.368.357.3860.0%9.5%19.5%89.0110.810.5%52.6%26.3%
Last 15 G1564.295.328.426.345.35210.9%4.7%18.5%90.0110.87.4%40.7%40.7%
Last 30 G30122.287.317.487.373.33917.2%4.1%20.1%87.8110.87.3%42.7%40.6%
90 days79331.279.304.467.342.31317.8%3.3%20.4%88.4112.85.8%45.0%32.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 258 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 21%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 8%
Michael Harris II · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating61Average
Last 100 pitches97trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.344 / .328running 16 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPSinker90.836.3-73.223Single
Sep 24RHPFastball98.6100.637.521Out
Sep 24RHPSinker89.4110.312.886Double
Sep 24RHPFastball94.0101.9241.020Out
Sep 24RHPFastball95.596.3-32.085Single
Sep 23LHPSweeper83.696.725.387Out
Sep 23LHPFastball91.074.8-1.129Out
Sep 23LHPSweeper82.999.342.102Out
Sep 23RHPCutter97.196.4-10.278Out
Sep 22LHPSinker93.8107.710.876Single
Sep 22LHPSlider87.261.6-1.091Force out
Sep 22LHPSinker93.8110.34.605Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24534000
Sep 23400000
Sep 22423000
Sep 20400020
Sep 19400000
Sep 18536101
Sep 16411001
Sep 15400001
Sep 14422000
Sep 13533002

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–

Against right-handers, last 90 days

0 PA
wOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces

Starter not announced.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Michael Harris II: every projection we've made →