Hitter · MIA · batting 1Otto Lopez
Bats rightTalent grade ——Normal
–wOBA vs RHP–xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
1+ hit-0.8 pts matchup
2+ total bases-1.2 pts matchup
Home run-1.3 pts matchup
43% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot40% fell for hits
| Market | BTB | Without the matchup | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ hit | 67.0% | 67.9% | -0.8 |
| 2+ total bases | 36.5% | 37.7% | -1.2 |
| Home run | 7.4% | 8.7% | -1.3 |
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen+0.1
Park-0.9
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen+0.1
Park-1.3
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen+0.0
Park-1.3
Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.
Statcast
opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonightOtto Lopez · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 5 | 18 | .200 | .333 | .400 | .329 | .358 | 16.7% | 11.1% | 20.7% | 91.3 | 103.1 | 8.3% | 58.3% | 33.3% |
| Last 15 G | 15 | 55 | .289 | .418 | .378 | .368 | .371 | 16.4% | 10.9% | 21.1% | 90.8 | 110.0 | 8.3% | 47.2% | 41.7% |
| Last 30 G | 30 | 93 | .312 | .398 | .388 | .366 | .358 | 12.9% | 7.5% | 17.3% | 90.0 | 110.0 | 5.8% | 46.4% | 36.2% |
| 90 days | 74 | 245 | .282 | .347 | .400 | .348 | .321 | 11.0% | 7.3% | 14.8% | 87.3 | 110.0 | 4.6% | 38.7% | 33.5% |
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 194 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 21%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 10%
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 3 | 6 | .200 | .333 | .200 | .267 | .379 | 16.7% | 16.7% | 26.7% | 82.9 | 103.5 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 50.0% |
| Last 15 G | 8 | 15 | .429 | .467 | .571 | .453 | .359 | 13.3% | 6.7% | 16.1% | 85.0 | 110.8 | 0.0% | 16.7% | 33.3% |
| Last 30 G | 19 | 43 | .237 | .302 | .421 | .312 | .314 | 18.6% | 9.3% | 19.5% | 85.4 | 110.8 | 6.5% | 29.0% | 22.6% |
| 90 days | 41 | 90 | .235 | .267 | .383 | .290 | .313 | 15.6% | 5.6% | 18.9% | 88.9 | 110.8 | 5.7% | 35.7% | 28.6% |
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 70 balls in play
Ground 49%Line drive 19%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 9%
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 5 | 24 | .200 | .333 | .350 | .313 | .364 | 16.7% | 12.5% | 22.7% | 89.2 | 103.5 | 6.2% | 50.0% | 37.5% |
| Last 15 G | 15 | 70 | .322 | .429 | .424 | .386 | .369 | 15.7% | 10.0% | 19.8% | 89.4 | 110.8 | 6.2% | 39.6% | 39.6% |
| Last 30 G | 30 | 136 | .288 | .368 | .398 | .349 | .344 | 14.7% | 8.1% | 18.1% | 88.6 | 110.8 | 6.0% | 41.0% | 32.0% |
| 90 days | 74 | 335 | .269 | .325 | .395 | .332 | .319 | 12.2% | 6.9% | 15.9% | 87.7 | 110.8 | 4.9% | 37.9% | 32.2% |
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 264 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 21%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 10%
xwOBA54.319
Avg EV4587.7
Max EV66110.8
Barrel%344.9%
Hard-hit%4537.9%
Sweet-spot%2832.2%
K%9412.2%
BB%316.9%
Whiff%8515.9%
Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.
FormNormal
Contact rating60Average
Last 100 pitches95trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.331 / .328results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run1/12
Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.
Recent contact
| Date | Pitcher | Pitch | Velo | EV | LA | xwOBA | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24 | LHP | Fastball | 92.5 | 103.5 | 0 | .429 | Out |
| Sep 24 | LHP | Slider | 82.8 | 93.5 | -30 | .070 | Out |
| Sep 24 | LHP | Changeup | 81.0 | 71.4 | 25 | .890 | Single |
| Sep 23 | RHP | Fastball | 93.1 | 95.2 | 6 | .484 | Single |
| Sep 23 | RHP | Fastball | 94.3 | 95.4 | -2 | .321 | Force out |
| Sep 23 | RHP | Changeup | 86.1 | 83.0 | 2 | .269 | Out |
| Sep 22 | LHP | Splitter | 82.7 | 63.1 | 11 | .186 | Out |
| Sep 22 | RHP | Sweeper | 87.8 | 64.9 | 21 | .558 | Single |
| Sep 22 | RHP | Fastball | 99.1 | 101.7 | -31 | .076 | Out |
| Sep 22 | RHP | Sinker | 92.6 | 84.8 | -18 | .076 | Out |
| Sep 20 | RHP | Fastball | 92.8 | 102.4 | 23 | .859 | Out |
| Sep 20 | RHP | Sinker | 95.0 | 100.4 | -10 | .262 | Force out |
Total bases, last 10 games★ home run
| Date | PA | H | TB | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Sep 23 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 22 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 20 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 19 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Sep 18 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 16 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 15 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Sep 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Sep 13 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The hitter
season-level talent readTalent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–
Against right-handers, last 90 days
0 PAwOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–
Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.
The starter he faces
Starter not announced.
The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Otto Lopez: every projection we've made →