MLBengine v14
← CIN at TOR, Sep 26, 2026
2:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · lineup projected
Hitter · TOR · batting 6Andrés Giménez
Bats leftTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.287wOBA vs RHP.300xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · CINRhett Lowder
Throws rightBTB Stuff 90Trending Down
3.2projected K17%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Rhett Lowder's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 30% usage, 93.7 mph, +16.6″ arm side, +6.5″ rise. Andrés Giménez: wOBA .335 vs league .348 (about even).Sinker 30%Slider: 27% usage, 85.4 mph, -1.8″ arm side, -1.2″ rise. Andrés Giménez: wOBA .304 vs league .317 (about even).Slider 27%Changeup: 20% usage, 86.9 mph, +17.4″ arm side, +0.7″ rise. Andrés Giménez: wOBA .279 vs league .292 (about even).Changeup 20%Fastball: 18% usage, 94.2 mph, +9.8″ arm side, +13.1″ rise. Andrés Giménez: wOBA .348 vs league .361 (about even).Fastball 18%Curveball: 5% usage, 81.0 mph, -11.3″ arm side, -12.8″ rise. Andrés Giménez: wOBA .289 vs league .302 (about even).Curveball 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Andrés Giménez's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Andrés Giménez's last 40 balls in playHit (12)Out (28)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Double: 67.6 mph at 39°Double: 99.2 mph at 26°Out: 94.9 mph at 52°Single: 71.3 mph at 38°Out: 64.3 mph at -44°Out: 84.4 mph at -2°Out: 93.3 mph at 22°Out: 82.5 mph at -9°Out: 97.5 mph at 26°Single: 108.4 mph at 12°Out: 58.6 mph at 7°Out: 71.8 mph at -37°Out: 92.1 mph at 35°Out: 89.0 mph at 42°Single: 104.7 mph at 14°Out: 50.6 mph at -25°Out: 94.0 mph at 49°Out: 70.0 mph at 81°Out: 80.9 mph at 73°Double: 64.9 mph at 46°Out: 96.5 mph at 20°Double: 100.3 mph at 10°Single: 70.1 mph at 40°Out: 84.4 mph at 34°Out: 104.0 mph at 9°Out: 101.0 mph at 7°Out: 93.2 mph at -18°Out: 61.8 mph at -41°Out: 86.4 mph at 2°Out: 64.9 mph at 1°Single: 94.2 mph at 12°Out: 88.5 mph at 1°Single: 88.5 mph at 10°Out: 93.2 mph at -19°Double: 94.4 mph at 15°Out: 66.3 mph at -16°Out: 55.1 mph at -63°Home run: 103.9 mph at 31°Out: 37.8 mph at -53°Out: 94.3 mph at 9°
23% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot30% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit63.2%61.3%+1.9
2+ total bases32.9%31.0%+1.9
Home run7.4%6.3%+1.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.4
Pitch mix
-0.6
Bullpen
+0.8
Park
+0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.3
Pitch mix
-0.6
Bullpen
+0.8
Park
+0.4
Home run
Starter
+0.8
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Andrés Giménez against each of Rhett Lowder's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker30%93.7+17″ / +7″.335.34814.4%12.4%29About league average vs these
Slider27%85.4-2″ / -1″.304.31730.1%31.4%14About league average vs these
Changeup20%86.9+17″ / +1″.279.29227.3%26.7%17About league average vs these
Fastball18%94.2+10″ / +13″.348.36117.3%15.4%46About league average vs these
Curveball5%81.0-11″ / -13″.289.30225.1%26.6%7Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Andrés Giménez · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.273.333.455.342.25516.7%0.0%15.0%82.899.211.1%11.1%11.1%
Last 15 G1439.278.333.361.312.32912.8%5.1%20.0%84.9104.73.2%25.8%35.5%
Last 30 G2572.242.306.318.282.28915.3%4.2%20.3%85.0104.73.6%32.7%30.9%
90 days56151.248.305.328.284.30617.2%4.6%22.1%84.9106.13.5%27.4%33.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 113 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 22%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G36.167.167.167.150.31416.7%0.0%23.1%85.9108.40.0%40.0%60.0%
Last 15 G1019.211.211.474.284.29410.5%0.0%15.8%77.6108.45.9%17.6%29.4%
Last 30 G2041.308.341.436.341.32114.6%2.4%19.8%78.2108.43.0%21.2%33.3%
90 days3970.254.286.358.284.25018.6%1.4%19.7%79.5108.41.9%20.4%29.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 54 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 20%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.235.278.353.278.27516.7%0.0%18.2%83.9108.47.1%21.4%28.6%
Last 15 G1558.255.293.400.303.31812.1%3.4%18.6%82.3108.44.2%22.9%33.3%
Last 30 G30113.267.319.362.304.30115.0%3.5%20.1%82.4108.43.4%28.4%31.8%
90 days61221.250.299.338.284.28817.6%3.6%21.3%83.1108.43.0%25.1%32.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 167 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 22%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 12%
Andrés Giménez · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating28Below average
Last 100 pitches8trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.287 / .293results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23RHPSinker93.667.639.557Double
Sep 23RHPCurveball72.499.226.788Double
Sep 23RHPFastball94.794.952.008Out
Sep 21RHPCurveball85.971.338.489Single
Sep 21RHPCurveball84.364.3-44.168Out
Sep 21RHPFastball94.784.4-2.163Out
Sep 20LHPSlider85.293.322.205Out
Sep 20RHPFastball95.582.5-9.094Out
Sep 20LHPFastball93.497.526.439Out
Sep 20LHPFastball95.3108.412.963Single
Sep 19LHPFastball90.958.67.168Out
Sep 19LHPChangeup88.371.8-37.107Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 23424001
Sep 21311000
Sep 20511001
Sep 19300000
Sep 15300001
Sep 14411002
Sep 13412000
Sep 12423001
Sep 11400000
Sep 9411000

Two strikes

Rhett Lowder CIN · RHPwith two strikes
Rhett Lowder with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider27%35%27.3%21.0%21.0%
Sinker30%24%1.9%14.3%16.9%
Fastball18%20%11.1%9.9%18.0%
Changeup20%15%9.1%9.4%18.6%
Curveball5%6%11.1%10.0%20.1%
Sweeper0%0%100.0%100.0%19.3%
Andrés Giménez bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Andrés Giménez with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%35.1%41.0%
Whiff%18.0%21.3%
Contact%82.0%78.7%
Chase%46.2%39.6%
wOBA.218.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes17.6%20.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.283
K%17.9%
BB%4.6%
Whiff%12.1%
Barrel%2.4%
Hard-hit%19.5%
Avg EV83.6

Against right-handers, last 90 days

151 PA
wOBA.287
xwOBA vs this mix.300against pitches like his
RV/100-0.79
Hard-hit%20.9%
K%17.8%
BB%3.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Rhett LowderRHP · CIN vs TOR
3.2projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 22.2 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 59.3%59%≤34 strikeouts: 17.9%18%45 strikeouts: 11.6%12%56 strikeouts: 6.4%6%67 strikeouts: 2.9%3%78 strikeouts: 1.3%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.6%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 41% (red bars) · under: 59%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%16.5%
BB%7.8%
Whiff%7.1%
Velo89.5
BTB Stuff90
Location107
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker29%8793.81.9%
Slider27%9885.615.4%
Changeup19%9186.95.0%
Fastball18%7994.24.7%
Curveball6%9680.83.2%
Other0%––0.0%
Sweeper0%9585.3100.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 206017%8%28%.456
Sep 159118%8%23%.382
Sep 97221%6%42%.584

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Rhett Lowder CIN · RHPvsTOR lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCIN @ TOR →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Andrés Giménez: every projection we've made →