MLBengine v14
← CIN at TOR, Sep 26, 2026
2:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · lineup projected
Hitter · CIN · batting 1Carlos Jorge
Bats leftTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.284wOBA vs RHP.286xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · TORTrey Yesavage
Throws rightBTB Stuff 92Trending Up
5.2projected K25%K%2.2trips vs this hitter
Trey Yesavage's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 49% usage, 94.2 mph, +4.7″ arm side, +18.8″ rise. Carlos Jorge: wOBA .346 vs league .351 (about even).Fastball 49%Splitter: 28% usage, 83.0 mph, +11.4″ arm side, +6.6″ rise. Carlos Jorge: wOBA .270 vs league .276 (about even).Splitter 28%Slider: 24% usage, 86.9 mph, +2.9″ arm side, +4.3″ rise. Carlos Jorge: wOBA .349 vs league .355 (about even).Slider 24%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Carlos Jorge's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Carlos Jorge's last 23 balls in playHit (5)Out (18)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 82.3 mph at 3°Out: 94.3 mph at 21°Home run: 101.0 mph at 32°Out: 63.2 mph at -9°Single: 68.7 mph at 24°Out: 82.1 mph at -34°Out: 75.4 mph at 10°Out: 92.1 mph at 6°Out: 28.1 mph at 0°Triple: 96.8 mph at 18°Out: 81.0 mph at 67°Out: 93.1 mph at 23°Out: 69.3 mph at -11°Out: 70.7 mph at 9°Out: 60.4 mph at 38°Out: 80.3 mph at 12°Single: 93.8 mph at 1°Out: 72.8 mph at -5°Single: 57.6 mph at -42°Out: 101.7 mph at 35°Out: 97.7 mph at 7°Out: 71.7 mph at 41°Out: 84.2 mph at 33°
17% hit 95+ mph35% in the sweet spot22% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit58.5%59.4%-0.9
2+ total bases34.8%35.3%-0.4
Home run11.4%11.0%+0.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.2
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.0
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.5
Home run
Starter
-0.2
Pitch mix
-0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Carlos Jorge against each of Trey Yesavage's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball49%94.2+5″ / +19″.346.35119.6%16.6%3Little history vs this shape
Splitter28%83.0+11″ / +7″.270.27628.8%29.8%8Little history vs this shape
Slider24%86.9+3″ / +4″.349.35528.7%24.1%4Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Carlos Jorge · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.214.267.571.407.30526.7%6.7%21.6%78.4101.010.0%20.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1334.156.206.312.253.25529.4%5.9%26.6%79.4101.74.5%18.2%36.4%
Last 30 G1334.156.206.312.253.25529.4%5.9%26.6%79.4101.74.5%18.2%36.4%
90 days1334.156.206.312.253.25529.4%5.9%26.6%79.4101.74.5%18.2%36.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 22 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 27%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 GNo plate appearances
Last 15 G12.000.000.000.000.17650.0%0.0%66.7%71.771.70.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 30 G12.000.000.000.000.17650.0%0.0%66.7%71.771.70.0%0.0%0.0%
90 days12.000.000.000.000.17650.0%0.0%66.7%71.771.70.0%0.0%0.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 1 balls in play
Ground 0%Line drive 0%Fly ball 100%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.214.267.571.407.30526.7%6.7%21.6%78.4101.010.0%20.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1336.147.194.294.239.25130.6%5.6%28.0%79.1101.74.3%17.4%34.8%
Last 30 G1336.147.194.294.239.25130.6%5.6%28.0%79.1101.74.3%17.4%34.8%
90 days1336.147.194.294.239.25130.6%5.6%28.0%79.1101.74.3%17.4%34.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 23 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 26%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 4%
FormNormal
Contact rating–percentile of xwOBA
Last 100 pitches–
wOBA / xwOBA.241 / .294running 53 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPSplitter87.982.33.287Out
Sep 24RHPSplitter84.194.321.222Out
Sep 24RHPFastball92.9101.032.909Home run
Sep 22RHPSinker93.763.2-9.071Out
Sep 22RHPCurveball77.968.724.883Single
Sep 20RHPChangeup92.882.1-34.055Error
Sep 19RHPSplitter86.675.410.260Out
Sep 18RHPSinker93.392.16.429Out
Sep 18RHPSinker92.128.10.289Out
Sep 18RHPChangeup88.196.818.477Triple
Sep 17RHPFastball94.481.067.000Out
Sep 15RHPCutter91.993.123.220Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24414101
Sep 22511003
Sep 20100000
Sep 19100000
Sep 18413010
Sep 17100000
Sep 15300011
Sep 14100001
Sep 11300001
Sep 9400002

Two strikes

Trey Yesavage TOR · RHPwith two strikes
Trey Yesavage with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball49%44%14.8%17.4%18.0%
Splitter28%35%28.9%17.6%19.0%
Slider24%21%33.3%22.5%21.0%
Carlos Jorge bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Carlos Jorge with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.8%41.0%
Whiff%21.6%21.3%
Contact%78.4%78.7%
Chase%40.0%39.6%
wOBA.238.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes21.3%21.0%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.306
K%24.2%
BB%7.6%
Whiff%11.4%
Barrel%4.7%
Hard-hit%23.7%
Avg EV87.0

Against right-handers, last 90 days

34 PA
wOBA.284
xwOBA vs this mix.286against pitches like his
RV/100-0.69
Hard-hit%19.0%
K%26.2%
BB%7.0%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Trey YesavageRHP · TOR vs CIN
5.2projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 18.4 batters over 4.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 24.1%24%≤34 strikeouts: 16.7%17%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 15.1%15%67 strikeouts: 11.1%11%78 strikeouts: 7.3%7%89+ strikeouts: 8.3%8%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 42% (red bars) · under: 58%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%25.0%
BB%11.1%
Whiff%13.5%
Velo89.4
BTB Stuff92
Location104
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball48%8494.310.1%
Splitter28%10483.016.3%
Slider24%9486.917.8%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Jul 299715%10%12%.214
Jul 249350%18%22%.411
Jul 199538%20%17%.306

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Trey Yesavage TOR · RHPvsCIN lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

5 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCIN @ TOR →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Carlos Jorge: every projection we've made →