MLBengine v14
← CIN at TOR, Sep 26, 2026
2:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · lineup projected
Hitter · TOR · batting 9Ernie Clement
Bats rightTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.261wOBA vs RHP.244xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · CINRhett Lowder
Throws rightBTB Stuff 90Trending Down
3.2projected K17%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Rhett Lowder's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 30% usage, 93.7 mph, +16.6″ arm side, +6.5″ rise. Ernie Clement: wOBA .326 vs league .347 (pitcher's edge).Sinker 30%Slider: 27% usage, 85.4 mph, -1.8″ arm side, -1.2″ rise. Ernie Clement: wOBA .267 vs league .288 (pitcher's edge).Slider 27%Changeup: 20% usage, 86.9 mph, +17.4″ arm side, +0.7″ rise. Ernie Clement: wOBA .284 vs league .305 (pitcher's edge).Changeup 20%Fastball: 18% usage, 94.2 mph, +9.8″ arm side, +13.1″ rise. Ernie Clement: wOBA .337 vs league .358 (pitcher's edge).Fastball 18%Curveball: 5% usage, 81.0 mph, -11.3″ arm side, -12.8″ rise. Ernie Clement: wOBA .265 vs league .286 (pitcher's edge).Curveball 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Ernie Clement's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Ernie Clement's last 40 balls in playHit (6)Out (34)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 82.5 mph at -2°Out: 91.2 mph at -18°Double: 98.9 mph at 17°Out: 90.6 mph at 34°Out: 84.8 mph at 31°Out: 96.3 mph at 34°Out: 55.6 mph at -58°Out: 77.1 mph at 34°Out: 98.6 mph at 2°Out: 83.7 mph at 0°Out: 88.0 mph at 61°Out: 91.0 mph at -6°Double: 98.9 mph at 13°Out: 79.1 mph at -26°Out: 99.7 mph at 25°Out: 95.5 mph at -14°Out: 95.7 mph at -10°Out: 85.9 mph at 51°Out: 85.9 mph at 42°Out: 91.3 mph at 51°Out: 71.2 mph at -3°Out: 81.0 mph at -15°Out: 76.5 mph at 63°Out: 74.8 mph at -18°Out: 77.0 mph at 40°Single: 36.1 mph at -34°Out: 96.8 mph at 32°Out: 97.8 mph at 36°Out: 98.6 mph at 2°Out: 94.9 mph at 41°Out: 93.6 mph at 23°Out: 93.3 mph at 28°Out: 76.1 mph at 50°Out: 90.1 mph at 39°Out: 72.4 mph at 65°Out: 83.5 mph at 37°Double: 71.2 mph at 35°Out: 85.9 mph at 22°Single: 87.5 mph at 1°Out: 91.8 mph at 60°
25% hit 95+ mph20% in the sweet spot15% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit61.7%60.2%+1.5
2+ total bases30.0%28.6%+1.4
Home run3.8%3.4%+0.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.8
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
+0.7
Park
+0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.5
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
+0.7
Park
+0.3
Home run
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
-0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Ernie Clement against each of Rhett Lowder's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker30%93.7+17″ / +7″.326.3474.6%10.9%43About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider27%85.4-2″ / -1″.267.28822.5%34.6%24About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup20%86.9+17″ / +1″.284.30518.9%25.3%20About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Fastball18%94.2+10″ / +13″.337.3586.7%15.8%49About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball5%81.0-11″ / -13″.265.28614.5%23.7%11About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Ernie Clement · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G411.182.182.273.195.1709.1%0.0%6.2%85.198.90.0%20.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1233.129.152.194.152.1616.1%3.0%8.9%84.798.90.0%26.7%10.0%
Last 30 G2569.154.188.200.176.19113.0%4.3%12.2%81.8102.70.0%19.3%22.8%
90 days69193.229.264.302.261.2399.3%4.7%13.5%81.9102.70.6%13.3%30.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 165 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 18%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 15%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G36.167.167.333.208.3820.0%0.0%11.1%93.499.716.7%66.7%33.3%
Last 15 G1120.167.200.222.232.2490.0%5.0%5.7%88.099.75.3%26.3%31.6%
Last 30 G1940.184.200.237.238.2430.0%2.5%2.8%82.299.72.6%23.1%33.3%
90 days48104.222.250.283.267.2646.7%2.9%14.0%84.1102.72.2%21.7%32.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 92 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 22%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.176.176.294.200.2455.9%0.0%8.0%88.299.76.2%37.5%25.0%
Last 15 G1553.143.170.204.182.1943.8%3.8%7.5%86.099.72.0%26.5%18.4%
Last 30 G30109.165.193.214.199.2108.3%3.7%8.6%82.0102.71.0%20.8%27.1%
90 days76297.227.259.295.263.2488.4%4.0%13.6%82.7102.71.2%16.3%31.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 257 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 19%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 15%
Ernie Clement · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating12Poor
Last 100 pitches3trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.256 / .266results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23RHPSlider82.282.5-2.178Single
Sep 23RHPCutter89.591.2-18.114Double play
Sep 23RHPCutter90.798.917.535Double
Sep 23RHPSlider87.490.634.035Out
Sep 23RHPSweeper84.284.831.047Out
Sep 23LHPFastball92.296.334.252Out
Sep 21RHPCurveball85.255.6-58.205Out
Sep 21RHPCurveball84.977.134.123Out
Sep 21RHPFastball93.198.62.384Out
Sep 20RHPFastball95.483.70.239Out
Sep 20RHPFastball95.888.061.008Out
Sep 20LHPChangeup86.691.0-6.184Double play
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 23423000
Sep 23300001
Sep 21300000
Sep 20412000
Sep 19300000
Sep 18300001
Sep 16400000
Sep 15400010
Sep 14411000
Sep 13400000

Two strikes

Rhett Lowder CIN · RHPwith two strikes
Rhett Lowder with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider27%35%27.3%21.0%21.0%
Sinker30%24%1.9%14.3%16.9%
Fastball18%20%11.1%9.9%18.0%
Changeup20%15%9.1%9.4%18.6%
Curveball5%6%11.1%10.0%20.1%
Sweeper0%0%100.0%100.0%19.3%
Ernie Clement bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Ernie Clement with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%32.9%42.4%
Whiff%19.1%22.2%
Contact%80.9%77.8%
Chase%47.0%39.8%
wOBA.237.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes18.4%21.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.278
K%9.4%
BB%4.3%
Whiff%8.0%
Barrel%1.4%
Hard-hit%15.6%
Avg EV83.3

Against right-handers, last 90 days

190 PA
wOBA.261
xwOBA vs this mix.244against pitches like his
RV/100-1.59
Hard-hit%13.3%
K%10.7%
BB%4.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Rhett LowderRHP · CIN vs TOR
3.2projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 22.2 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 59.3%59%≤34 strikeouts: 17.9%18%45 strikeouts: 11.6%12%56 strikeouts: 6.4%6%67 strikeouts: 2.9%3%78 strikeouts: 1.3%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.6%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 41% (red bars) · under: 59%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%16.5%
BB%7.8%
Whiff%7.1%
Velo89.5
BTB Stuff90
Location107
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker29%8793.81.9%
Slider27%9885.615.4%
Changeup19%9186.95.0%
Fastball18%7994.24.7%
Curveball6%9680.83.2%
Other0%––0.0%
Sweeper0%9585.3100.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 206017%8%28%.456
Sep 159118%8%23%.382
Sep 97221%6%42%.584

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Rhett Lowder CIN · RHPvsTOR lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCIN @ TOR →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Ernie Clement: every projection we've made →