MLBengine v14
← CIN at TOR, Sep 26, 2026
2:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · lineup projected
Hitter · CIN · batting 6Eugenio Suárez
Bats rightTalent grade BPowerNormal
.351wOBA vs RHP.328xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · TORTrey Yesavage
Throws rightBTB Stuff 92Trending Up
5.2projected K25%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Trey Yesavage's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 49% usage, 94.2 mph, +4.7″ arm side, +18.8″ rise. Eugenio Suárez: wOBA .362 vs league .349 (about even).Fastball 49%Splitter: 28% usage, 83.0 mph, +11.4″ arm side, +6.6″ rise. Eugenio Suárez: wOBA .290 vs league .278 (about even).Splitter 28%Slider: 24% usage, 86.9 mph, +2.9″ arm side, +4.3″ rise. Eugenio Suárez: wOBA .334 vs league .322 (about even).Slider 24%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Eugenio Suárez's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Eugenio Suárez's last 40 balls in playHit (13)Out (27)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 95.1 mph at 15°Out: 72.4 mph at 66°Out: 88.6 mph at 44°Home run: 103.9 mph at 29°Out: 81.2 mph at -17°Out: 91.3 mph at 7°Out: 79.5 mph at 35°Out: 97.0 mph at 27°Out: 91.2 mph at 22°Out: 83.9 mph at -31°Single: 83.3 mph at 18°Out: 100.4 mph at 20°Out: 95.4 mph at -3°Out: 86.3 mph at 60°Out: 78.3 mph at 72°Single: 86.6 mph at 8°Out: 85.0 mph at 35°Out: 93.7 mph at -9°Out: 79.2 mph at 84°Home run: 105.3 mph at 32°Home run: 104.0 mph at 34°Single: 73.8 mph at 19°Single: 67.2 mph at 28°Out: 86.4 mph at 52°Out: 106.9 mph at 40°Out: 95.4 mph at -4°Out: 87.2 mph at 24°Out: 95.1 mph at 77°Home run: 104.4 mph at 34°Out: 79.0 mph at 58°Single: 97.8 mph at 12°Out: 74.3 mph at 53°Out: 78.5 mph at -35°Double: 106.4 mph at 25°Home run: 105.7 mph at 29°Out: 72.0 mph at 56°Out: 101.1 mph at 54°Out: 57.4 mph at -4°Out: 74.1 mph at 9°Single: 96.3 mph at 8°
40% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot33% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit53.4%52.1%+1.3
2+ total bases36.2%34.8%+1.4
Home run19.1%17.9%+1.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.5
Pitch mix
+2.4
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.6
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.3
Pitch mix
+2.2
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
+0.8
Home run
Starter
-0.9
Pitch mix
+1.5
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.8

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Eugenio Suárez against each of Trey Yesavage's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball49%94.2+5″ / +19″.362.34922.9%21.1%39About league average vs these
Splitter28%83.0+11″ / +7″.290.27836.0%30.8%10About league average vs these
Slider24%86.9+3″ / +4″.334.32240.4%31.7%22About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Eugenio Suárez · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.214.267.429.300.34926.7%0.0%22.2%88.8103.910.0%30.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1336.242.306.545.360.42033.3%2.8%27.8%91.4106.923.8%52.4%47.6%
Last 30 G2774.250.338.516.364.37728.4%6.8%26.3%88.5106.913.6%40.9%40.9%
90 days67200.224.315.506.351.32434.0%8.5%27.4%89.7110.515.9%44.9%43.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 107 balls in play
Ground 24%Line drive 24%Fly ball 36%Pop-up 15%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G35.000.400.000.280.30740.0%20.0%33.3%79.579.50.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1124.176.417.353.362.35516.7%25.0%16.7%85.7104.07.7%15.4%23.1%
Last 30 G2045.194.444.387.387.37724.4%28.9%28.0%88.1105.710.0%25.0%35.0%
90 days4081.164.370.377.343.33934.6%23.5%36.7%90.0111.315.2%36.4%36.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 33 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 21%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 21%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.176.300.353.295.33930.0%5.0%25.0%87.9103.99.1%27.3%45.5%
Last 15 G1560.220.350.480.361.39426.7%11.7%23.7%89.2106.917.6%38.2%38.2%
Last 30 G30119.232.378.474.372.37726.9%15.1%26.9%88.4106.912.5%35.9%39.1%
90 days70281.209.331.472.348.32834.2%12.8%30.1%89.8111.315.7%42.9%41.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 140 balls in play
Ground 27%Line drive 24%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 16%
Eugenio Suárez · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating72Above average
Last 100 pitches42trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.344 / .339results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPSplitter88.295.115.838Single
Sep 24RHPFastball91.472.466.004Out
Sep 22RHPSinker92.888.644.003Out
Sep 22RHPSlider88.3103.9291.539Home run
Sep 22RHPSinker93.981.2-17.072Force out
Sep 22RHPCurveball78.791.37.427Out
Sep 19LHPChangeup79.579.535.106Out
Sep 19RHPFastball98.597.027.494Out
Sep 18RHPSinker92.191.222.185Out
Sep 18RHPSinker92.983.9-31.044Force out
Sep 18RHPSinker94.483.318.903Single
Sep 16RHPFastball96.7100.420.382Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24411001
Sep 23400003
Sep 22414100
Sep 19400011
Sep 18411001
Sep 16400011
Sep 15400003
Sep 14311000
Sep 13414100
Sep 12536110

Two strikes

Trey Yesavage TOR · RHPwith two strikes
Trey Yesavage with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball49%44%14.8%17.4%18.0%
Splitter28%35%28.9%17.6%19.0%
Slider24%21%33.3%22.5%21.0%
Eugenio Suárez bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Eugenio Suárez with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%53.5%42.4%
Whiff%27.3%22.2%
Contact%72.7%77.8%
Chase%33.5%39.8%
wOBA.234.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes28.1%22.9%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.347
K%33.1%
BB%11.6%
Whiff%13.1%
Barrel%7.8%
Hard-hit%22.3%
Avg EV89.7

Against right-handers, last 90 days

197 PA
wOBA.351
xwOBA vs this mix.328against pitches like his
RV/1000.76
Hard-hit%24.2%
K%32.5%
BB%12.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Trey YesavageRHP · TOR vs CIN
5.2projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 18.4 batters over 4.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 24.1%24%≤34 strikeouts: 16.7%17%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 15.1%15%67 strikeouts: 11.1%11%78 strikeouts: 7.3%7%89+ strikeouts: 8.3%8%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 42% (red bars) · under: 58%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%25.0%
BB%11.1%
Whiff%13.5%
Velo89.4
BTB Stuff92
Location104
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball48%8494.310.1%
Splitter28%10483.016.3%
Slider24%9486.917.8%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Jul 299715%10%12%.214
Jul 249350%18%22%.411
Jul 199538%20%17%.306

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Trey Yesavage TOR · RHPvsCIN lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

5 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCIN @ TOR →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Eugenio Suárez: every projection we've made →