MLBengine v14
← CIN at TOR, Sep 26, 2026
2:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · lineup projected
Hitter · CIN · batting 9Ke'Bryan Hayes
Bats rightTalent grade DBalancedCold
.241wOBA vs RHP.281xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · TORTrey Yesavage
Throws rightBTB Stuff 92Trending Up
5.2projected K25%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Trey Yesavage's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 49% usage, 94.2 mph, +4.7″ arm side, +18.8″ rise. Ke'Bryan Hayes: wOBA .334 vs league .349 (about even).Fastball 49%Splitter: 28% usage, 83.0 mph, +11.4″ arm side, +6.6″ rise. Ke'Bryan Hayes: wOBA .263 vs league .278 (pitcher's edge).Splitter 28%Slider: 24% usage, 86.9 mph, +2.9″ arm side, +4.3″ rise. Ke'Bryan Hayes: wOBA .307 vs league .322 (pitcher's edge).Slider 24%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Ke'Bryan Hayes's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Ke'Bryan Hayes's last 40 balls in playHit (6)Out (34)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 92.4 mph at 3°Out: 91.0 mph at 30°Out: 78.3 mph at 63°Out: 90.1 mph at 35°Out: 85.2 mph at -43°Out: 84.8 mph at 53°Out: 88.5 mph at 48°Out: 101.9 mph at -18°Out: 81.0 mph at 27°Single: 97.9 mph at 13°Out: 92.0 mph at 22°Out: 63.6 mph at -52°Out: 91.4 mph at 37°Out: 73.2 mph at 53°Out: 95.3 mph at -5°Out: 85.9 mph at 25°Out: 93.9 mph at 48°Out: 82.1 mph at -6°Out: 102.9 mph at 15°Out: 89.3 mph at 59°Out: 78.8 mph at 36°Single: 104.9 mph at 14°Out: 72.8 mph at -13°Out: 99.6 mph at 7°Out: 95.6 mph at -6°Single: 104.0 mph at 8°Out: 105.1 mph at 4°Out: 95.1 mph at 19°Out: 72.9 mph at 73°Out: 93.1 mph at 47°Out: 97.8 mph at 42°Single: 88.4 mph at 14°Out: 104.4 mph at -8°Single: 106.6 mph at 11°Out: 77.4 mph at 0°Out: 90.3 mph at 36°Out: 96.1 mph at 35°Single: 104.7 mph at 9°Out: 87.1 mph at 60°Out: 86.6 mph at -17°
38% hit 95+ mph30% in the sweet spot15% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit49.8%51.6%-1.8
2+ total bases24.7%26.1%-1.4
Home run5.9%6.2%-0.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.1
Pitch mix
-0.9
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.9
Pitch mix
-0.7
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.4
Home run
Starter
-0.3
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Ke'Bryan Hayes against each of Trey Yesavage's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball49%94.2+5″ / +19″.334.34922.1%21.1%14About league average vs these
Splitter28%83.0+11″ / +7″.263.27831.0%30.8%2Little history vs this shape
Slider24%86.9+3″ / +4″.307.32234.0%31.7%15About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Ke'Bryan Hayes · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G47.000.000.000.000.1420.0%0.0%0.0%85.895.30.0%14.3%14.3%
Last 15 G1334.097.176.097.141.25120.6%8.8%20.6%91.3106.60.0%45.8%25.0%
Last 30 G2663.155.222.259.233.29322.2%6.3%23.0%90.7106.96.8%43.2%34.1%
90 days3385.152.212.266.236.28024.7%5.9%25.0%91.3108.35.2%43.1%31.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 58 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 17%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G58.125.125.125.112.1990.0%0.0%5.3%88.3101.90.0%25.0%37.5%
Last 15 G815.133.133.133.120.18220.0%0.0%19.4%88.0101.90.0%16.7%41.7%
Last 30 G1524.083.083.083.075.16725.0%0.0%24.1%86.7103.10.0%22.2%38.9%
90 days1729.107.138.107.117.20324.1%0.0%23.4%87.4108.80.0%23.8%38.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 21 balls in play
Ground 33%Line drive 24%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.067.067.067.060.1720.0%0.0%3.1%87.1101.90.0%20.0%26.7%
Last 15 G1549.109.163.109.135.23020.4%6.1%20.2%90.2106.60.0%36.1%30.6%
Last 30 G3087.134.184.207.190.25923.0%4.6%23.3%89.5106.94.8%37.1%35.5%
90 days38114.140.193.224.206.26024.6%4.4%24.5%90.2108.83.8%38.0%32.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 79 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 19%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 13%
Ke'Bryan Hayes · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating19Poor
Last 100 pitches0trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.209 / .281running 72 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit3/12
2+ total bases0/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPFastball92.692.43.431Out
Sep 24RHPSplitter87.991.030.061Out
Sep 24RHPFastball97.078.363.012Out
Sep 24LHPSinker94.590.135.017Out
Sep 23LHPSlider83.285.2-43.049Out
Sep 23LHPSlider83.584.853.023Out
Sep 23RHPFastball98.388.548.008Out
Sep 20LHPSlider88.4101.9-18.174Out
Sep 20LHPFastball93.081.027.172Out
Sep 19LHPChangeup80.297.913.897Single
Sep 19LHPChangeup81.592.022.155Out
Sep 19RHPCurveball79.163.6-52.229Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24400000
Sep 23300000
Sep 20200000
Sep 19311000
Sep 17300000
Sep 14300002
Sep 12400001
Sep 11300001
Sep 9311002
Sep 7300002

Two strikes

Trey Yesavage TOR · RHPwith two strikes
Trey Yesavage with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball49%44%14.8%17.4%18.0%
Splitter28%35%28.9%17.6%19.0%
Slider24%21%33.3%22.5%21.0%
Ke'Bryan Hayes bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Ke'Bryan Hayes with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%44.7%42.4%
Whiff%23.7%22.2%
Contact%76.3%77.8%
Chase%39.1%39.8%
wOBA.218.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes24.4%22.9%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.260
K%22.4%
BB%5.8%
Whiff%11.2%
Barrel%3.1%
Hard-hit%28.2%
Avg EV89.5

Against right-handers, last 90 days

85 PA
wOBA.241
xwOBA vs this mix.281against pitches like his
RV/100-1.86
Hard-hit%28.7%
K%24.5%
BB%5.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Trey YesavageRHP · TOR vs CIN
5.2projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 18.4 batters over 4.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 24.1%24%≤34 strikeouts: 16.7%17%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 15.1%15%67 strikeouts: 11.1%11%78 strikeouts: 7.3%7%89+ strikeouts: 8.3%8%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 42% (red bars) · under: 58%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%25.0%
BB%11.1%
Whiff%13.5%
Velo89.4
BTB Stuff92
Location104
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball48%8494.310.1%
Splitter28%10483.016.3%
Slider24%9486.917.8%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Jul 299715%10%12%.214
Jul 249350%18%22%.411
Jul 199538%20%17%.306

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Trey Yesavage TOR · RHPvsCIN lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

5 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCIN @ TOR →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Ke'Bryan Hayes: every projection we've made →