MLBengine v14
← CIN at TOR, Sep 26, 2026
2:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · lineup projected
Hitter · CIN · batting 3Sal Stewart
Bats rightTalent grade BBalancedHot
.358wOBA vs RHP.335xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · TORTrey Yesavage
Throws rightBTB Stuff 92Trending Up
5.2projected K25%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Trey Yesavage's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 49% usage, 94.2 mph, +4.7″ arm side, +18.8″ rise. Sal Stewart: wOBA .366 vs league .349 (hitter's edge).Fastball 49%Splitter: 28% usage, 83.0 mph, +11.4″ arm side, +6.6″ rise. Sal Stewart: wOBA .294 vs league .278 (hitter's edge).Splitter 28%Slider: 24% usage, 86.9 mph, +2.9″ arm side, +4.3″ rise. Sal Stewart: wOBA .339 vs league .322 (hitter's edge).Slider 24%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Sal Stewart's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Sal Stewart's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 101.5 mph at 0°Out: 101.7 mph at 8°Out: 91.6 mph at -6°Out: 101.3 mph at 56°Single: 96.4 mph at -7°Out: 95.7 mph at 60°Out: 102.8 mph at -23°Out: 105.1 mph at 18°Out: 107.9 mph at 20°Out: 97.3 mph at 33°Out: 100.7 mph at 7°Out: 101.5 mph at 9°Out: 89.4 mph at -19°Out: 76.6 mph at -18°Single: 100.8 mph at -14°Out: 95.7 mph at 24°Out: 100.1 mph at 9°Home run: 104.3 mph at 25°Single: 77.1 mph at 17°Single: 91.9 mph at 13°Single: 98.0 mph at -15°Out: 89.2 mph at 45°Single: 105.9 mph at 6°Out: 47.4 mph at 78°Out: 67.2 mph at -55°Out: 61.7 mph at -36°Out: 99.0 mph at 6°Single: 102.0 mph at 0°Single: 104.2 mph at 2°Single: 109.7 mph at 2°Out: 101.6 mph at 5°Single: 107.3 mph at 7°Out: 77.8 mph at -15°Single: 79.5 mph at -8°Single: 95.4 mph at 2°Out: 89.9 mph at -16°Single: 109.1 mph at 11°Out: 105.3 mph at 18°Out: 102.3 mph at -5°Out: 80.9 mph at -28°
68% hit 95+ mph28% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit68.2%69.0%-0.8
2+ total bases41.7%42.3%-0.7
Home run16.2%16.2%-0.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.1
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.1
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
+0.7
Home run
Starter
-0.7
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.7

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Sal Stewart against each of Trey Yesavage's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball49%94.2+5″ / +19″.366.34926.2%21.1%39About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Splitter28%83.0+11″ / +7″.294.27827.9%30.8%10About league average vs these
Slider24%86.9+3″ / +4″.339.32226.8%31.7%33About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Sal Stewart · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G412.200.333.200.267.26825.0%16.7%20.7%98.1102.80.0%85.7%14.3%
Last 15 G1437.353.378.441.384.31621.6%5.4%23.8%92.1109.13.7%59.3%25.9%
Last 30 G2981.333.358.507.382.35518.5%4.9%24.6%91.5109.19.7%50.0%38.7%
90 days77242.294.331.529.374.34020.7%5.4%24.0%89.9110.210.3%39.4%36.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 175 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 21%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G39.000.000.000.000.34644.4%0.0%26.3%103.3107.920.0%100.0%60.0%
Last 15 G1024.130.167.130.142.29041.7%4.2%29.4%98.8109.77.7%84.6%30.8%
Last 30 G2248.233.292.302.269.32829.2%8.3%25.3%94.2110.010.0%66.7%46.7%
90 days4697.253.320.368.307.32926.8%8.2%24.2%91.6110.09.7%53.2%37.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 62 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 27%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.105.190.105.152.30133.3%9.5%22.9%100.3107.98.3%91.7%33.3%
Last 15 G1561.263.295.316.289.30529.5%4.9%26.0%94.3109.75.0%67.5%27.5%
Last 30 G30129.297.333.432.340.34522.5%6.2%24.8%92.4110.09.8%55.4%41.3%
90 days79339.282.327.484.355.33722.4%6.2%24.1%90.3110.210.1%43.0%36.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 237 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 23%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 5%
Sal Stewart · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating76Above average
Last 100 pitches41trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.349 / .342results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPFastball94.7101.50.386Single
Sep 24RHPFastball97.3101.78.608Out
Sep 24RHPSplitter85.791.6-6.168Out
Sep 23LHPChangeup87.5101.356.017Out
Sep 22RHPCurveball81.596.4-7.204Single
Sep 22RHPChangeup82.495.760.020Out
Sep 22RHPSlider84.3102.8-23.099Out
Sep 20LHPCurveball78.7105.118.641Out
Sep 20LHPSinker90.6107.9201.249Out
Sep 20RHPCutter88.897.333.335Out
Sep 19LHPFastball93.7100.77.589Out
Sep 19LHPChangeup80.1101.59.614Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24411010
Sep 23400003
Sep 22511011
Sep 20400001
Sep 19400002
Sep 18411000
Sep 17425101
Sep 16433000
Sep 15400003
Sep 14400002

Two strikes

Trey Yesavage TOR · RHPwith two strikes
Trey Yesavage with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball49%44%14.8%17.4%18.0%
Splitter28%35%28.9%17.6%19.0%
Slider24%21%33.3%22.5%21.0%
Sal Stewart bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Sal Stewart with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%40.0%42.4%
Whiff%19.9%22.2%
Contact%80.1%77.8%
Chase%44.6%39.8%
wOBA.254.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes20.6%22.9%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBBalanced type
wOBA.345
K%22.7%
BB%6.4%
Whiff%11.9%
Barrel%7.0%
Hard-hit%29.9%
Avg EV90.3

Against right-handers, last 90 days

238 PA
wOBA.358
xwOBA vs this mix.335against pitches like his
RV/1000.90
Hard-hit%28.1%
K%21.0%
BB%6.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Trey YesavageRHP · TOR vs CIN
5.2projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 18.4 batters over 4.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 24.1%24%≤34 strikeouts: 16.7%17%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 15.1%15%67 strikeouts: 11.1%11%78 strikeouts: 7.3%7%89+ strikeouts: 8.3%8%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 42% (red bars) · under: 58%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%25.0%
BB%11.1%
Whiff%13.5%
Velo89.4
BTB Stuff92
Location104
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball48%8494.310.1%
Splitter28%10483.016.3%
Slider24%9486.917.8%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Jul 299715%10%12%.214
Jul 249350%18%22%.411
Jul 199538%20%17%.306

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Trey Yesavage TOR · RHPvsCIN lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

5 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCIN @ TOR →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Sal Stewart: every projection we've made →