Bo Bichette vs Connelly Early, Sep 26, 2026

← NYM at WSH, Sep 26, 2026

11:35 AM CT · Nationals Park · lineup projected

Hitter · NYM · batting 3Bo Bichette

Bats rightTalent grade BBalancedNormal

.335wOBA vs LHP.331xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA

Starter · WSHConnelly Early

Throws leftBTB Stuff 94Stable

3.8projected K33%K%1.9trips vs this hitter

1+ hit-1.1 pts matchup

2+ total bases-0.5 pts matchup

Home run+0.4 pts matchup

Bo Bichette's last 40 balls in playHit (10)Out (30)Barrel zone

48% hit 95+ mph43% in the sweet spot25% fell for hits

Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
Market	BTB	Without the matchup	Matchup
1+ hit	67.7%	68.8%	-1.1
2+ total bases	38.9%	39.4%	-0.5
Home run	9.5%	9.1%	+0.4

What moves the number

1+ hit

Starter

-1.4

Pitch mix

-0.2

Bullpen

+0.1

Park

+0.4

2+ total bases

Starter

-1.0

Pitch mix

-0.2

Bullpen

+0.2

Park

+0.5

Home run

Starter

+0.1

Pitch mix

-0.1

Bullpen

+0.1

Park

+0.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight

Bo Bichette · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games

vs LHPvs RHPAll

Window	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%	Whiff%	Avg EV	Max EV	Barrel%	Hard-hit%	Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G	5	14	.083	.214	.333	.307	.373	14.3%	14.3%	12.5%	88.6	105.6	10.0%	30.0%	50.0%
Last 15 G	12	25	.130	.200	.261	.244	.326	16.0%	8.0%	13.3%	89.7	105.6	5.3%	42.1%	42.1%
Last 30 G	24	47	.190	.277	.381	.309	.376	17.0%	10.6%	13.2%	91.3	109.0	11.8%	50.0%	52.9%
90 days	47	98	.241	.306	.425	.332	.337	17.3%	9.2%	14.1%	90.7	109.0	6.9%	44.4%	51.4%

Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 72 balls in play

Ground 42%Line drive 31%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 4%

Window	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%	Whiff%	Avg EV	Max EV	Barrel%	Hard-hit%	Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G	5	9	.250	.333	.250	.278	.442	22.2%	11.1%	40.9%	95.9	108.6	0.0%	66.7%	66.7%
Last 15 G	14	45	.244	.311	.244	.262	.334	20.0%	8.9%	18.9%	90.9	111.5	0.0%	46.9%	43.8%
Last 30 G	27	86	.250	.302	.375	.311	.320	18.6%	7.0%	19.4%	89.5	111.8	3.1%	45.3%	39.1%
90 days	72	225	.275	.329	.362	.318	.317	18.2%	7.6%	18.1%	87.6	111.8	3.6%	36.5%	38.9%

Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 167 balls in play

Ground 51%Line drive 24%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 4%

Window	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%	Whiff%	Avg EV	Max EV	Barrel%	Hard-hit%	Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G	5	23	.150	.261	.300	.296	.400	17.4%	13.0%	24.1%	91.3	108.6	6.2%	43.8%	56.2%
Last 15 G	15	70	.203	.271	.250	.256	.331	18.6%	8.6%	16.4%	90.5	111.5	2.0%	45.1%	43.1%
Last 30 G	30	133	.230	.293	.377	.310	.340	18.0%	8.3%	16.9%	90.1	111.8	6.1%	46.9%	43.9%
90 days	75	323	.265	.322	.381	.322	.323	18.0%	8.0%	16.8%	88.5	111.8	4.6%	38.9%	42.7%

Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 239 balls in play

Ground 48%Line drive 26%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 4%

Bo Bichette · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

xwOBA60.323

Avg EV5588.5

Max EV78111.8

Barrel%324.6%

Hard-hit%5238.9%

Sweet-spot%9342.7%

K%7318.0%

BB%428.0%

Whiff%8116.8%

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal

Contact rating56Average

Last 100 pitches99trending up

wOBA / xwOBA.318 / .325results in line with his contact

Last 12 games, oldest to newest

Hit8/12

2+ total bases2/12

Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
Date	Pitcher	Pitch	Velo	EV	LA	xwOBA	Result
Sep 24	RHP	Sinker	93.1	102.3	-10	.249	Double play
Sep 24	RHP	Sinker	93.1	100.3	-2	.298	Out
Sep 24	LHP	Fastball	93.3	91.1	27	.118	Out
Sep 24	LHP	Sinker	90.3	80.3	-3	.083	Out
Sep 23	LHP	Changeup	82.2	75.6	9	.239	Out
Sep 23	LHP	Fastball	89.9	86.5	-2	.208	Error
Sep 23	LHP	Fastball	94.8	97.3	33	.335	Out
Sep 23	LHP	Cutter	88.8	91.2	7	.427	Out
Sep 22	LHP	Changeup	85.8	66.6	-37	.053	Out
Sep 22	LHP	Changeup	85.6	97.7	22	.393	Out
Sep 22	RHP	Fastball	92.4	108.6	14	.834	Single
Sep 20	LHP	Slider	86.9	105.6	31	1.740	Home run

Total bases, last 10 games★ home run

014

315

116

117

118

119

4★20

122

023

024

Last 10 games.
Date	PA	H	TB	HR	BB	K
Sep 24	4	0	0	0	0	0
Sep 23	5	0	0	0	1	0
Sep 22	5	1	1	0	1	1
Sep 20	4	1	4	1	0	1
Sep 19	5	1	1	0	1	2
Sep 18	5	1	1	0	0	1
Sep 17	4	1	1	0	0	1
Sep 16	4	1	1	0	0	2
Sep 15	6	3	3	0	0	0
Sep 14	4	0	0	0	0	1

Two strikes

Connelly Early WSH · LHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Sweeper+18 pts

Fastball+3 pts

Sinker-5 pts

Changeup-6 pts

Slider-7 pts

Connelly Early with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Sweeper	18%	36%	75.0%	37.5%	20.5%
Fastball	20%	23%	0.0%	0.0%	18.6%
Sinker	23%	18%	0.0%	25.0%	17.7%
Changeup	20%	14%	–	0.0%	18.3%
Slider	16%	9%	50.0%	50.0%	21.6%

Bo Bichette bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand

Bo Bichette with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikes	Him	League
K%	37.8%	41.6%
Whiff%	15.8%	21.7%
Contact%	84.2%	78.3%
Chase%	44.4%	40.0%
wOBA	.274	.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes	–	–

The hitter

season-level talent read

Talent gradeBBalanced type

wOBA.336

K%17.8%

BB%8.0%

Whiff%9.2%

Barrel%3.9%

Hard-hit%29.6%

Avg EV88.8

Against left-handers, last 90 days

96 PA

wOBA.335

xwOBA vs this mix.331against pitches like his

RV/1000.14

Hard-hit%31.3%

K%18.3%

BB%8.1%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces

Connelly EarlyLHP · WSH vs NYM

3.8projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 14.2 batters over 3.3 innings

Over 3.5: 53% (red bars) · under: 47%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%33.3%

BB%13.3%

Whiff%11.5%

Velo88.8

BTB Stuff94

Location100

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Sinker23%10192.90.0%

Changeup20%8484.68.3%

Fastball20%10194.90.0%

Sweeper18%9784.027.3%

Slider16%8487.720.0%

Curveball3%9480.250.0%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Connelly Early WSH · LHPvsNYM lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Francisco Lindor18%

2Juan Soto19%

3Bo Bichette18%

4Carson Benge27%

5Brett Baty22%

6Marcus Semien20%

7A.J. Ewing23%

8Luis Torrens19%

9Nick Morabito22%

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameNYM @ WSH →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Bo Bichette: every projection we've made →