MLBengine v14
← NYM at WSH, Sep 26, 2026
11:35 AM CT · Nationals Park · lineup projected
Hitter · NYM · batting 4Carson Benge
Bats leftTalent grade AvgBalancedHot
.305wOBA vs LHP.324xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · WSHConnelly Early
Throws leftBTB Stuff 94Stable
3.8projected K33%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Carson Benge's last 40 balls in playHit (16)Out (24)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 79.1 mph at 8°Single: 89.9 mph at 22°Out: 100.7 mph at 36°Out: 100.6 mph at -8°Out: 104.8 mph at 8°Out: 97.0 mph at 34°Double: 101.4 mph at 18°Double: 86.2 mph at 13°Out: 90.4 mph at 38°Out: 92.4 mph at 27°Single: 98.8 mph at 6°Out: 69.4 mph at 55°Out: 91.5 mph at 33°Single: 58.6 mph at -61°Home run: 100.3 mph at 28°Single: 78.7 mph at 17°Single: 82.5 mph at 20°Single: 98.7 mph at 4°Out: 74.8 mph at 10°Single: 103.7 mph at 7°Out: 98.3 mph at 38°Out: 84.1 mph at 42°Out: 89.8 mph at 41°Out: 102.8 mph at 32°Out: 75.8 mph at -4°Out: 96.9 mph at 52°Home run: 101.8 mph at 31°Out: 103.2 mph at 33°Out: 62.2 mph at 19°Out: 100.3 mph at 35°Single: 91.0 mph at -2°Out: 84.6 mph at 24°Single: 70.2 mph at 21°Out: 84.4 mph at -12°Out: 102.0 mph at 10°Single: 100.5 mph at 10°Home run: 105.2 mph at 43°Out: 94.3 mph at 20°Out: 89.2 mph at -13°Single: 88.1 mph at 10°
45% hit 95+ mph48% in the sweet spot40% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit63.3%65.3%-1.9
2+ total bases33.6%35.6%-2.0
Home run10.2%11.8%-1.7
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-2.4
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
-2.3
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.5
Home run
Starter
-1.7
Pitch mix
+0.0
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
+0.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Carson Benge · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.308.357.462.357.40821.4%7.1%16.7%95.1104.80.0%60.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1429.280.379.360.338.38624.1%10.3%17.5%89.9104.80.0%44.4%55.6%
Last 30 G2652.277.346.383.327.36126.9%7.7%18.8%87.0105.53.0%33.3%48.5%
90 days56111.252.306.388.307.33127.9%6.3%20.8%86.3107.76.9%33.3%43.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 72 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 29%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G59.375.444.750.500.27822.2%11.1%26.3%81.5100.316.7%16.7%50.0%
Last 15 G1440.257.350.514.372.36020.0%10.0%18.8%89.4105.214.8%37.0%37.0%
Last 30 G2881.288.358.452.357.32521.0%8.6%23.9%86.0106.98.9%28.6%39.3%
90 days69209.316.383.471.387.34219.1%8.6%20.0%87.8107.65.5%36.3%35.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 146 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 24%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G523.333.391.571.413.35721.7%8.7%20.9%90.0104.86.2%43.8%50.0%
Last 15 G1569.267.362.450.358.37121.7%10.1%18.3%89.6105.28.9%40.0%44.4%
Last 30 G30133.283.353.425.345.33923.3%8.3%21.9%86.4106.96.7%30.3%42.7%
90 days74320.293.356.441.359.33822.2%7.8%20.2%87.3107.76.0%35.3%38.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 218 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 26%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 6%
Carson Benge · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating75Above average
Last 100 pitches97trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.359 / .341running 18 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPCutter90.879.18.314Out
Sep 24RHPSlider83.389.922.187Single
Sep 24LHPSweeper81.2100.736.776Out
Sep 23LHPSinker88.0100.6-8.281Out
Sep 23LHPFastball89.1104.88.642Out
Sep 23LHPSlider87.097.034.375Out
Sep 22LHPFastball94.2101.418.494Double
Sep 22LHPFastball92.386.213.823Double
Sep 22LHPFastball92.990.438.028Out
Sep 20LHPSlider85.892.427.140Out
Sep 20LHPSinker95.298.86.549Single
Sep 20RHPChangeup90.169.455.046Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24411001
Sep 23500002
Sep 22524011
Sep 20411001
Sep 19536110
Sep 18422000
Sep 17411001
Sep 16400000
Sep 15614112
Sep 14422000

Two strikes

Connelly Early WSH · LHPwith two strikes
Connelly Early with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper18%36%75.0%37.5%20.5%
Fastball20%23%0.0%0.0%18.6%
Sinker23%18%0.0%25.0%17.7%
Changeup20%14%–0.0%18.3%
Slider16%9%50.0%50.0%21.6%
Carson Benge bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Carson Benge with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%47.1%44.1%
Whiff%23.9%22.7%
Contact%76.1%77.3%
Chase%40.4%38.1%
wOBA.204.224
Whiff vs his put-away shapes––

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.345
K%22.3%
BB%7.9%
Whiff%9.6%
Barrel%4.3%
Hard-hit%24.4%
Avg EV87.5

Against left-handers, last 90 days

109 PA
wOBA.305
xwOBA vs this mix.324against pitches like his
RV/100-0.17
Hard-hit%22.6%
K%27.2%
BB%7.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Connelly EarlyLHP · WSH vs NYM
3.8projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 14.2 batters over 3.3 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 46.8%47%≤34 strikeouts: 19.4%19%45 strikeouts: 14.8%15%56 strikeouts: 9.5%10%67 strikeouts: 5.3%5%78 strikeouts: 2.5%3%89+ strikeouts: 1.7%2%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 53% (red bars) · under: 47%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%33.3%
BB%13.3%
Whiff%11.5%
Velo88.8
BTB Stuff94
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker23%10192.90.0%
Changeup20%8484.68.3%
Fastball20%10194.90.0%
Sweeper18%9784.027.3%
Slider16%8487.720.0%
Curveball3%9480.250.0%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Connelly Early WSH · LHPvsNYM lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameNYM @ WSH →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Carson Benge: every projection we've made →