MLBengine v14
← NYM at WSH, Sep 26, 2026
11:35 AM CT · Nationals Park · lineup projected
Hitter · WSH · batting 5Dylan Crews
Bats rightTalent grade AvgBalancedHot
.301wOBA vs RHP.306xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · NYMJonah Tong
Throws rightBTB Stuff 106Stable
5.8projected K27%K%2.3trips vs this hitter
Jonah Tong's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 44% usage, 94.6 mph, +6.5″ arm side, +19.6″ rise. Dylan Crews: wOBA .343 vs league .351 (about even).Fastball 44%Cutter: 23% usage, 90.1 mph, -2.5″ arm side, +14.5″ rise. Dylan Crews: wOBA .331 vs league .339 (about even).Cutter 23%Changeup: 23% usage, 87.4 mph, +14.4″ arm side, +9.1″ rise. Dylan Crews: wOBA .305 vs league .313 (about even).Changeup 23%Curveball: 10% usage, 78.7 mph, -6.8″ arm side, -13.0″ rise. Dylan Crews: wOBA .284 vs league .292 (about even).Curveball 10%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Dylan Crews's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Dylan Crews's last 40 balls in playHit (11)Out (29)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 101.8 mph at -34°Out: 105.4 mph at -7°Out: 81.2 mph at 68°Out: 88.0 mph at 61°Single: 93.3 mph at -6°Out: 109.3 mph at 14°Single: 81.3 mph at 16°Single: 76.9 mph at 16°Out: 53.7 mph at -15°Out: 83.9 mph at 3°Out: 90.7 mph at 53°Out: 101.4 mph at 37°Out: 102.5 mph at 22°Out: 81.7 mph at 14°Out: 106.0 mph at 16°Out: 98.9 mph at -12°Single: 59.6 mph at 28°Out: 80.7 mph at 13°Home run: 100.3 mph at 33°Out: 101.4 mph at -15°Out: 63.7 mph at 40°Single: 88.6 mph at 13°Out: 97.3 mph at 38°Single: 61.0 mph at -17°Out: 100.0 mph at 53°Out: 73.7 mph at -16°Out: 105.3 mph at 31°Single: 74.5 mph at 19°Out: 80.6 mph at -5°Out: 106.1 mph at -6°Out: 100.9 mph at 30°Out: 89.7 mph at 34°Out: 79.6 mph at -39°Out: 80.1 mph at 27°Single: 31.1 mph at -56°Out: 86.0 mph at 33°Single: 94.0 mph at 21°Out: 99.4 mph at 18°Out: 49.0 mph at 2°Double: 111.7 mph at 11°
40% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot28% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit57.8%59.3%-1.5
2+ total bases31.5%32.7%-1.2
Home run10.7%11.5%-0.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.5
Pitch mix
-0.4
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.4
Pitch mix
-0.4
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.4
Home run
Starter
-0.9
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Dylan Crews against each of Jonah Tong's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball44%94.6+7″ / +20″.343.35120.5%19.5%45About league average vs these
Cutter23%90.1-3″ / +15″.331.33924.3%23.2%30About league average vs these
Changeup23%87.4+14″ / +9″.305.31337.3%27.9%32About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Curveball10%78.7-7″ / -13″.284.29239.7%29.4%8Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Dylan Crews · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.231.267.231.287.42620.0%6.7%27.3%90.6109.39.1%45.5%54.5%
Last 15 G1439.257.308.371.322.34023.1%5.1%25.0%89.5109.37.4%44.4%37.0%
Last 30 G2991.265.319.398.324.30226.4%6.6%27.5%89.7109.35.0%45.0%33.3%
90 days67204.217.289.326.293.30226.5%7.8%29.6%89.4109.37.0%45.0%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 129 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 22%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G37.143.143.143.129.2690.0%0.0%0.0%85.6101.80.0%28.6%28.6%
Last 15 G1222.227.227.409.283.4359.1%0.0%12.1%85.7111.710.0%40.0%40.0%
Last 30 G1933.219.242.375.275.34718.2%3.0%19.3%85.7111.77.7%30.8%34.6%
90 days4595.226.316.429.329.34723.2%10.5%26.5%89.4112.311.3%35.5%40.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 62 balls in play
Ground 31%Line drive 21%Fly ball 36%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.200.227.200.236.37613.6%4.5%21.4%88.7109.35.6%38.9%44.4%
Last 15 G1561.246.279.386.308.37318.0%3.3%21.2%87.9111.78.5%42.6%38.3%
Last 30 G30124.252.298.391.311.31424.2%5.6%25.6%88.5111.75.8%40.7%33.7%
90 days72299.220.298.358.304.31625.4%8.7%28.7%89.4112.38.4%41.9%35.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 191 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 22%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 11%
Dylan Crews · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating60Average
Last 100 pitches99trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.306 / .327running 21 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23LHPChangeup90.3101.8-34.090Out
Sep 23RHPCutter87.6105.4-7.356Double play
Sep 23LHPCurveball77.381.268.007Out
Sep 23RHPCurveball83.888.061.008Out
Sep 22RHPCurveball79.293.3-6.202Single
Sep 22RHPFastball93.7109.314.834Out
Sep 22RHPSinker95.881.316.898Single
Sep 21RHPSinker95.876.916.765Single
Sep 21RHPSinker96.053.7-15.089Out
Sep 20LHPSlider86.083.93.271Out
Sep 20LHPSlider84.490.753.003Out
Sep 20LHPFastball93.0101.437.521Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 23400000
Sep 22422001
Sep 21411011
Sep 20400000
Sep 19611001
Sep 18525101
Sep 16311001
Sep 15300000
Sep 13211001
Sep 12500001

Two strikes

Jonah Tong NYM · RHPwith two strikes
Jonah Tong with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball44%42%16.7%14.3%18.0%
Changeup23%35%35.0%27.6%18.6%
Cutter23%14%16.7%16.7%17.9%
Curveball10%10%60.0%37.5%20.1%
Dylan Crews bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Dylan Crews with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%47.8%42.4%
Whiff%27.0%22.2%
Contact%73.0%77.8%
Chase%37.4%39.8%
wOBA.220.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes28.3%23.4%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.302
K%24.9%
BB%8.4%
Whiff%13.8%
Barrel%5.6%
Hard-hit%26.8%
Avg EV89.4

Against right-handers, last 90 days

201 PA
wOBA.301
xwOBA vs this mix.306against pitches like his
RV/100-0.37
Hard-hit%28.1%
K%25.6%
BB%8.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jonah TongRHP · NYM vs WSH
5.8projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 22.5 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 17.1%17%≤34 strikeouts: 14.3%14%45 strikeouts: 16.4%16%56 strikeouts: 15.9%16%67 strikeouts: 13.2%13%78 strikeouts: 9.6%10%89+ strikeouts: 13.5%14%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 52% (red bars) · under: 48%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%26.9%
BB%9.0%
Whiff%13.6%
Velo90.3
BTB Stuff106
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball44%11494.512.1%
Cutter23%11090.111.3%
Changeup23%9887.418.0%
Curveball10%8178.715.4%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209522%8%35%.333
Sep 148326%14%22%.220
Sep 78733%18%19%.324

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jonah Tong NYM · RHPvsWSH lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameNYM @ WSH →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Dylan Crews: every projection we've made →