MLBengine v14
← NYM at WSH, Sep 26, 2026
11:35 AM CT · Nationals Park · lineup projected
Hitter · NYM · batting 1Francisco Lindor
Switch hitterTalent grade APowerNormal
.314wOBA vs LHP.325xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · WSHConnelly Early
Throws leftBTB Stuff 94Stable
3.8projected K33%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Francisco Lindor's last 40 balls in playHit (10)Out (30)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 93.5 mph at 47°Double: 90.5 mph at 26°Out: 102.4 mph at 40°Single: 103.4 mph at -11°Out: 41.9 mph at -75°Out: 111.5 mph at 16°Out: 94.6 mph at 32°Out: 97.2 mph at 42°Out: 97.6 mph at -10°Out: 97.7 mph at 18°Single: 99.7 mph at 13°Out: 75.2 mph at 5°Out: 96.2 mph at 54°Out: 98.6 mph at 71°Out: 93.6 mph at -18°Out: 105.2 mph at 7°Out: 103.2 mph at 29°Out: 83.7 mph at -27°Out: 101.8 mph at 20°Single: 108.8 mph at 8°Double: 100.3 mph at 23°Out: 95.2 mph at -2°Out: 35.0 mph at -47°Out: 101.7 mph at 5°Single: 100.1 mph at 14°Out: 95.7 mph at 33°Out: 82.9 mph at 72°Out: 69.0 mph at -61°Out: 78.8 mph at 50°Double: 100.3 mph at 20°Out: 83.8 mph at 68°Out: 94.6 mph at 31°Out: 84.8 mph at 49°Out: 93.6 mph at 59°Single: 93.9 mph at 6°Out: 86.9 mph at 38°Home run: 104.3 mph at 41°Home run: 102.3 mph at 23°Out: 103.1 mph at -8°Out: 97.2 mph at 40°
57% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot25% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit62.1%63.4%-1.3
2+ total bases38.9%40.2%-1.2
Home run15.0%15.9%-0.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.9
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
+0.5
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.9
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.6
Home run
Starter
-1.2
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Francisco Lindor · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G413.083.154.083.123.24515.4%7.7%20.8%91.4111.510.0%60.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1226.167.231.208.206.28719.2%7.7%19.6%92.7111.55.3%57.9%31.6%
Last 30 G2450.156.240.267.250.30318.0%10.0%23.2%90.9111.55.6%47.2%25.0%
90 days49111.192.279.394.311.32716.2%10.8%18.8%90.6111.57.4%46.9%27.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 81 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 17%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G411.200.273.300.259.39018.2%9.1%40.0%96.5105.212.5%62.5%50.0%
Last 15 G1447.220.319.561.370.31725.5%8.5%28.7%92.9105.210.3%58.6%37.9%
Last 30 G2891.226.286.512.338.29125.3%5.5%27.1%90.9107.79.8%52.5%26.2%
90 days70229.245.328.480.351.33023.6%9.2%25.3%91.5107.710.1%53.0%31.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 149 balls in play
Ground 34%Line drive 23%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 15%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G524.136.208.182.185.31116.7%8.3%29.5%93.7111.511.1%61.1%33.3%
Last 15 G1573.200.288.431.312.30723.3%8.2%25.4%92.8111.58.3%58.3%35.4%
Last 30 G30141.202.270.426.307.29522.7%7.1%25.7%90.9111.58.2%50.5%25.8%
90 days75340.228.312.452.338.32921.2%9.7%23.2%91.2111.59.1%50.9%30.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 230 balls in play
Ground 35%Line drive 21%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 14%
Francisco Lindor · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating71Above average
Last 100 pitches75steady
wOBA / xwOBA.336 / .338results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPSweeper86.393.547.014Out
Sep 24RHPSinker94.090.526.114Double
Sep 24LHPFastball93.8102.440.334Out
Sep 23LHPFastball89.6103.4-11.249Single
Sep 23LHPChangeup80.541.9-75.176Out
Sep 23LHPFastball89.8111.516.842Out
Sep 23LHPFastball94.794.632.230Out
Sep 23LHPCutter87.797.242.056Out
Sep 22LHPFastball94.697.6-10.211Out
Sep 22RHPSplitter86.797.718.408Out
Sep 22RHPChangeup89.699.713.889Single
Sep 22LHPChangeup85.675.25.219Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24412001
Sep 23511000
Sep 22511010
Sep 20500002
Sep 19500011
Sep 18523002
Sep 17400010
Sep 16411002
Sep 15612010
Sep 14500012

Two strikes

Connelly Early WSH · LHPwith two strikes
Connelly Early with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper18%36%75.0%37.5%20.5%
Fastball20%23%0.0%0.0%18.6%
Sinker23%18%0.0%25.0%17.7%
Changeup20%14%–0.0%18.3%
Slider16%9%50.0%50.0%21.6%
Francisco Lindor bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Francisco Lindor with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%35.8%41.6%
Whiff%17.6%21.7%
Contact%82.4%78.3%
Chase%41.6%40.0%
wOBA.246.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes––

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.340
K%21.2%
BB%9.4%
Whiff%10.8%
Barrel%6.1%
Hard-hit%33.6%
Avg EV90.9

Against left-handers, last 90 days

109 PA
wOBA.314
xwOBA vs this mix.325against pitches like his
RV/100-0.02
Hard-hit%33.9%
K%17.7%
BB%9.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Connelly EarlyLHP · WSH vs NYM
3.8projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 14.2 batters over 3.3 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 46.8%47%≤34 strikeouts: 19.4%19%45 strikeouts: 14.8%15%56 strikeouts: 9.5%10%67 strikeouts: 5.3%5%78 strikeouts: 2.5%3%89+ strikeouts: 1.7%2%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 53% (red bars) · under: 47%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%33.3%
BB%13.3%
Whiff%11.5%
Velo88.8
BTB Stuff94
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker23%10192.90.0%
Changeup20%8484.68.3%
Fastball20%10194.90.0%
Sweeper18%9784.027.3%
Slider16%8487.720.0%
Curveball3%9480.250.0%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Connelly Early WSH · LHPvsNYM lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameNYM @ WSH →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Francisco Lindor: every projection we've made →