MLBengine v14
← NYM at WSH, Sep 26, 2026
11:35 AM CT · Nationals Park · lineup projected
Hitter · WSH · batting 7Harry Ford
Bats rightTalent grade DBalancedNormal
.280wOBA vs RHP.292xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · NYMJonah Tong
Throws rightBTB Stuff 106Stable
5.8projected K27%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jonah Tong's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 44% usage, 94.6 mph, +6.5″ arm side, +19.6″ rise. Harry Ford: wOBA .343 vs league .351 (about even).Fastball 44%Cutter: 23% usage, 90.1 mph, -2.5″ arm side, +14.5″ rise. Harry Ford: wOBA .332 vs league .339 (about even).Cutter 23%Changeup: 23% usage, 87.4 mph, +14.4″ arm side, +9.1″ rise. Harry Ford: wOBA .306 vs league .313 (about even).Changeup 23%Curveball: 10% usage, 78.7 mph, -6.8″ arm side, -13.0″ rise. Harry Ford: wOBA .284 vs league .292 (about even).Curveball 10%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Harry Ford's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Harry Ford's last 40 balls in playHit (9)Out (31)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 66.6 mph at 9°Out: 93.6 mph at -2°Single: 107.1 mph at 9°Out: 63.5 mph at 4°Single: 98.3 mph at 10°Out: 81.5 mph at 4°Out: 97.6 mph at -2°Out: 92.2 mph at 53°Out: 81.0 mph at -12°Out: 101.2 mph at 31°Out: 97.7 mph at -9°Out: 67.3 mph at 59°Double: 104.2 mph at 21°Out: 100.2 mph at 35°Out: 73.6 mph at 63°Out: 73.3 mph at 59°Out: 92.0 mph at 37°Single: 96.2 mph at 0°Single: 93.5 mph at 17°Out: 30.9 mph at -34°Out: 85.8 mph at -13°Out: 90.6 mph at -6°Out: 110.2 mph at -7°Out: 99.0 mph at 24°Out: 92.8 mph at 42°Home run: 100.2 mph at 31°Out: 71.1 mph at 21°Single: 94.7 mph at -4°Out: 51.0 mph at -15°Out: 83.7 mph at -11°Out: 53.4 mph at -17°Out: 94.9 mph at -13°Out: 57.4 mph at -16°Out: 106.4 mph at 21°Out: 95.8 mph at -16°Single: 97.8 mph at 2°Out: 92.1 mph at 27°Double: 97.8 mph at 0°Out: 50.7 mph at -15°Out: 90.1 mph at 49°
38% hit 95+ mph28% in the sweet spot23% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit52.6%53.9%-1.3
2+ total bases29.2%30.2%-1.0
Home run10.1%10.8%-0.7
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.3
Pitch mix
-0.4
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.2
Pitch mix
-0.4
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
+0.4
Home run
Starter
-0.8
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Harry Ford against each of Jonah Tong's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball44%94.6+7″ / +20″.343.35122.3%19.5%17About league average vs these
Cutter23%90.1-3″ / +15″.332.33925.9%23.2%8Little history vs this shape
Changeup23%87.4+14″ / +9″.306.31328.4%27.9%8Little history vs this shape
Curveball10%78.7-7″ / -13″.284.29228.3%29.4%3Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Harry Ford · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G35.000.000.000.180.12940.0%0.0%25.0%75.997.60.0%33.3%33.3%
Last 15 G1332.107.219.107.235.28415.6%12.5%19.4%84.5110.24.5%27.3%18.2%
Last 30 G2456.102.214.184.230.28219.6%12.5%24.3%85.3110.28.1%32.4%21.6%
90 days2660.115.233.250.260.28220.0%11.7%24.3%85.7110.27.7%33.3%20.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 39 balls in play
Ground 59%Line drive 10%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G49.286.444.286.356.37133.3%22.2%22.7%95.1107.10.0%50.0%50.0%
Last 15 G919.267.421.533.413.39026.3%21.1%25.6%88.1107.120.0%50.0%50.0%
Last 30 G1943.257.395.457.377.32125.6%18.6%23.8%86.8107.112.5%37.5%41.7%
90 days2355.261.382.435.363.29429.1%16.4%25.5%82.8107.113.3%33.3%43.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 30 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 17%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 17%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.167.286.167.293.28535.7%14.3%23.3%86.9107.10.0%42.9%42.9%
Last 15 G1551.163.294.256.303.32419.6%15.7%21.8%85.6110.29.4%34.4%28.1%
Last 30 G3099.167.293.298.294.29922.2%15.2%24.1%85.9110.29.8%34.4%29.5%
90 days34115.184.304.337.310.28824.3%13.9%24.9%84.4110.210.1%33.3%30.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 69 balls in play
Ground 49%Line drive 13%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 13%
Harry Ford · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating47Average
Last 100 pitches85trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.296 / .314running 18 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23RHPCurveball81.666.69.176Out
Sep 20LHPSlider84.993.6-2.286Out
Sep 20LHPFastball92.2107.19.725Single
Sep 18RHPSinker92.963.54.128Out
Sep 15LHPSinker95.398.310.721Single
Sep 15LHPSlider86.281.54.210Out
Sep 12RHPSlider91.297.6-2.342Fielder's choice
Sep 11LHPFastball95.492.253.003Out
Sep 11RHPFastball95.681.0-12.094Out
Sep 8RHPFastball92.6101.2311.019Out
Sep 8RHPSinker93.197.7-9.242Out
Sep 8RHPFastball95.467.359.011Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 23300011
Sep 20311001
Sep 18400012
Sep 15311001
Sep 12100000
Sep 11300010
Sep 8300000
Sep 6412020
Sep 4300001
Sep 2200001

Two strikes

Jonah Tong NYM · RHPwith two strikes
Jonah Tong with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball44%42%16.7%14.3%18.0%
Changeup23%35%35.0%27.6%18.6%
Cutter23%14%16.7%16.7%17.9%
Curveball10%10%60.0%37.5%20.1%
Harry Ford bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Harry Ford with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%39.4%42.4%
Whiff%20.5%22.2%
Contact%79.5%77.8%
Chase%34.3%39.8%
wOBA.235.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes21.8%23.4%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.303
K%24.6%
BB%9.8%
Whiff%10.5%
Barrel%6.0%
Hard-hit%23.2%
Avg EV86.9

Against right-handers, last 90 days

60 PA
wOBA.280
xwOBA vs this mix.292against pitches like his
RV/100-0.85
Hard-hit%22.7%
K%21.2%
BB%12.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jonah TongRHP · NYM vs WSH
5.8projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 22.5 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 17.1%17%≤34 strikeouts: 14.3%14%45 strikeouts: 16.4%16%56 strikeouts: 15.9%16%67 strikeouts: 13.2%13%78 strikeouts: 9.6%10%89+ strikeouts: 13.5%14%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 52% (red bars) · under: 48%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%26.9%
BB%9.0%
Whiff%13.6%
Velo90.3
BTB Stuff106
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball44%11494.512.1%
Cutter23%11090.111.3%
Changeup23%9887.418.0%
Curveball10%8178.715.4%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209522%8%35%.333
Sep 148326%14%22%.220
Sep 78733%18%19%.324

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jonah Tong NYM · RHPvsWSH lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameNYM @ WSH →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Harry Ford: every projection we've made →