MLBengine v14
← NYM at WSH, Sep 26, 2026
11:35 AM CT · Nationals Park · lineup projected
Hitter · WSH · batting 8Jacob Young
Bats rightTalent grade CContactHot
.311wOBA vs RHP.325xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · NYMJonah Tong
Throws rightBTB Stuff 106Stable
5.8projected K27%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jonah Tong's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 44% usage, 94.6 mph, +6.5″ arm side, +19.6″ rise. Jacob Young: wOBA .347 vs league .351 (about even).Fastball 44%Cutter: 23% usage, 90.1 mph, -2.5″ arm side, +14.5″ rise. Jacob Young: wOBA .335 vs league .339 (about even).Cutter 23%Changeup: 23% usage, 87.4 mph, +14.4″ arm side, +9.1″ rise. Jacob Young: wOBA .309 vs league .313 (about even).Changeup 23%Curveball: 10% usage, 78.7 mph, -6.8″ arm side, -13.0″ rise. Jacob Young: wOBA .288 vs league .292 (about even).Curveball 10%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jacob Young's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jacob Young's last 40 balls in playHit (12)Out (28)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 105.1 mph at 15°Out: 63.9 mph at -68°Out: 100.6 mph at 27°Double: 109.3 mph at -24°Single: 100.4 mph at 12°Out: 82.0 mph at 58°Single: 100.1 mph at -3°Out: 97.2 mph at 44°Out: 82.8 mph at -14°Out: 88.8 mph at 17°Double: 99.5 mph at 20°Out: 88.9 mph at 36°Out: 81.5 mph at 38°Out: 96.6 mph at 18°Out: 84.7 mph at -10°Out: 85.4 mph at 1°Double: 103.0 mph at 20°Out: 92.3 mph at 32°Out: 48.1 mph at -85°Single: 92.1 mph at 6°Single: 76.8 mph at 26°Out: 91.3 mph at 51°Out: 94.2 mph at -13°Out: 85.4 mph at 30°Out: 83.7 mph at 40°Out: 80.0 mph at 46°Single: 101.3 mph at 14°Out: 86.8 mph at -4°Single: 87.2 mph at 2°Out: 95.3 mph at -22°Out: 94.3 mph at -11°Single: 66.0 mph at 13°Single: 79.8 mph at 21°Out: 65.3 mph at -9°Out: 86.7 mph at 28°Single: 96.5 mph at 16°Out: 93.3 mph at 48°Out: 82.2 mph at 48°Out: 84.7 mph at 25°Out: 63.1 mph at -39°
30% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot30% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit56.3%57.2%-0.9
2+ total bases26.9%27.6%-0.7
Home run4.5%4.8%-0.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.8
Pitch mix
-0.5
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.7
Pitch mix
-0.4
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.3
Home run
Starter
-0.4
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Jacob Young against each of Jonah Tong's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball44%94.6+7″ / +20″.347.35118.9%19.5%27About league average vs these
Cutter23%90.1-3″ / +15″.335.33922.2%23.2%21About league average vs these
Changeup23%87.4+14″ / +9″.309.31327.9%27.9%22About league average vs these
Curveball10%78.7-7″ / -13″.288.29225.9%29.4%7Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jacob Young · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G47.400.500.600.507.63414.3%14.3%22.2%99.8109.325.0%75.0%75.0%
Last 15 G1121.316.350.421.357.40414.3%4.8%25.6%89.1109.36.2%37.5%43.8%
Last 30 G2565.268.349.357.329.35015.4%9.2%21.0%83.4109.36.4%25.5%38.3%
90 days47117.235.325.327.302.32513.7%10.3%21.3%83.5109.33.5%22.1%43.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 86 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 27%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.286.250.429.269.25012.5%0.0%16.7%90.1105.10.0%57.1%28.6%
Last 15 G1324.250.333.300.290.24616.7%8.3%18.2%88.2105.10.0%29.4%35.3%
Last 30 G1934.233.294.267.257.23517.6%5.9%17.7%87.2105.10.0%28.0%40.0%
90 days3884.343.434.514.427.35914.3%10.7%20.7%84.6106.85.0%26.7%36.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 60 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 23%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.333.357.500.380.42913.3%6.7%19.0%93.6109.39.1%63.6%45.5%
Last 15 G1545.282.341.359.321.32015.6%6.7%21.7%88.6109.33.0%33.3%39.4%
Last 30 G3099.256.330.326.304.31016.2%8.1%19.8%84.7109.34.2%26.4%38.9%
90 days58201.280.371.405.354.33913.9%10.4%21.1%84.0109.34.1%24.0%40.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 146 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 25%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 5%
Jacob Young · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating73Above average
Last 100 pitches75steady
wOBA / xwOBA.346 / .339results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23LHPSinker91.6105.115.712Out
Sep 23LHPCurveball77.163.9-68.260Out
Sep 23RHPCutter92.7100.6271.179Out
Sep 21RHPSinker92.3109.3-24.121Double
Sep 21RHPSinker92.9100.412.916Single
Sep 20LHPSlider82.082.058.080Out
Sep 20LHPFastball92.8100.1-3.373Single
Sep 20LHPSlider85.497.244.062Sac fly
Sep 18LHPSweeper77.282.8-14.111Force out
Sep 18RHPSinker94.988.817.825Out
Sep 18LHPChangeup80.799.520.401Double
Sep 15LHPSinker95.688.936.033Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 23400001
Sep 21323001
Sep 20311000
Sep 19100000
Sep 18412010
Sep 15400000
Sep 13412000
Sep 12311001
Sep 11200002
Sep 9311000

Two strikes

Jonah Tong NYM · RHPwith two strikes
Jonah Tong with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball44%42%16.7%14.3%18.0%
Changeup23%35%35.0%27.6%18.6%
Cutter23%14%16.7%16.7%17.9%
Curveball10%10%60.0%37.5%20.1%
Jacob Young bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Jacob Young with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%37.0%42.4%
Whiff%19.6%22.2%
Contact%80.4%77.8%
Chase%33.0%39.8%
wOBA.244.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes20.7%23.4%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCContact type
wOBA.326
K%15.0%
BB%9.5%
Whiff%9.5%
Barrel%2.5%
Hard-hit%19.5%
Avg EV84.1

Against right-handers, last 90 days

117 PA
wOBA.311
xwOBA vs this mix.325against pitches like his
RV/100-0.43
Hard-hit%17.5%
K%14.7%
BB%10.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jonah TongRHP · NYM vs WSH
5.8projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 22.5 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 17.1%17%≤34 strikeouts: 14.3%14%45 strikeouts: 16.4%16%56 strikeouts: 15.9%16%67 strikeouts: 13.2%13%78 strikeouts: 9.6%10%89+ strikeouts: 13.5%14%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 52% (red bars) · under: 48%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%26.9%
BB%9.0%
Whiff%13.6%
Velo90.3
BTB Stuff106
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball44%11494.512.1%
Cutter23%11090.111.3%
Changeup23%9887.418.0%
Curveball10%8178.715.4%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209522%8%35%.333
Sep 148326%14%22%.220
Sep 78733%18%19%.324

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jonah Tong NYM · RHPvsWSH lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameNYM @ WSH →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jacob Young: every projection we've made →