MLBengine v14
← NYM at WSH, Sep 26, 2026
11:35 AM CT · Nationals Park · lineup projected
Hitter · WSH · batting 9Nasim Nuñez
Switch hitterTalent grade FContactNormal
.254wOBA vs RHP.270xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · NYMJonah Tong
Throws rightBTB Stuff 106Stable
5.8projected K27%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jonah Tong's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 44% usage, 94.6 mph, +6.5″ arm side, +19.6″ rise. Nasim Nuñez: wOBA .323 vs league .346 (pitcher's edge).Fastball 44%Cutter: 23% usage, 90.1 mph, -2.5″ arm side, +14.5″ rise. Nasim Nuñez: wOBA .350 vs league .373 (pitcher's edge).Cutter 23%Changeup: 23% usage, 87.4 mph, +14.4″ arm side, +9.1″ rise. Nasim Nuñez: wOBA .274 vs league .297 (pitcher's edge).Changeup 23%Curveball: 10% usage, 78.7 mph, -6.8″ arm side, -13.0″ rise. Nasim Nuñez: wOBA .289 vs league .312 (pitcher's edge).Curveball 10%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Nasim Nuñez's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Nasim Nuñez's last 40 balls in playHit (5)Out (35)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 104.0 mph at -3°Single: 75.9 mph at 31°Out: 38.1 mph at -18°Out: 93.1 mph at -36°Out: 97.3 mph at -13°Out: 88.4 mph at 30°Out: 91.7 mph at 2°Out: 83.3 mph at 69°Out: 78.1 mph at -10°Single: 91.0 mph at -23°Out: 71.2 mph at -46°Out: 51.1 mph at 1°Out: 75.6 mph at 44°Out: 12.3 mph at 51°Out: 99.9 mph at 5°Out: 72.3 mph at -62°Out: 88.4 mph at -24°Out: 58.1 mph at 46°Out: 98.8 mph at 7°Out: 101.1 mph at 27°Out: 68.7 mph at 83°Out: 84.5 mph at 40°Single: 53.5 mph at -78°Out: 69.6 mph at 43°Double: 101.6 mph at 23°Out: 90.6 mph at -7°Out: 90.4 mph at 2°Out: 81.7 mph at 2°Out: 98.4 mph at 18°Out: 80.7 mph at 8°Out: 30.2 mph at -36°Out: 74.3 mph at -5°Single: 89.7 mph at 12°Out: 91.8 mph at 26°Out: 93.4 mph at 35°Out: 82.9 mph at 11°Out: 91.8 mph at -6°Out: 35.9 mph at -76°Out: 50.9 mph at 50°Out: 85.0 mph at 39°
18% hit 95+ mph23% in the sweet spot13% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit49.0%50.4%-1.4
2+ total bases23.1%23.9%-0.8
Home run5.2%5.3%-0.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.0
Pitch mix
-0.8
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.6
Pitch mix
-0.6
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.3
Home run
Starter
-0.1
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Nasim Nuñez against each of Jonah Tong's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball44%94.6+7″ / +20″.323.34615.8%17.1%45About league average vs these
Cutter23%90.1-3″ / +15″.350.37315.6%16.0%25About league average vs these
Changeup23%87.4+14″ / +9″.274.29723.4%26.7%18About league average vs these
Curveball10%78.7-7″ / -13″.289.31222.8%27.7%7Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Nasim Nuñez · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G38.286.375.286.312.20425.0%12.5%33.3%70.991.00.0%0.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1128.154.214.192.198.25521.4%7.1%31.4%78.6101.610.5%15.8%26.3%
Last 30 G2570.125.176.141.184.26220.0%5.7%21.8%81.0101.63.9%17.6%31.4%
90 days51144.195.268.203.247.27317.4%9.0%18.0%81.2102.11.9%21.9%27.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 105 balls in play
Ground 57%Line drive 16%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.000.125.000.100.2770.0%12.5%12.5%93.0104.00.0%33.3%16.7%
Last 15 G916.077.200.077.192.4116.2%12.5%9.1%81.5104.00.0%36.4%9.1%
Last 30 G1530.148.207.148.193.31013.3%6.7%14.0%87.2108.70.0%36.4%18.2%
90 days3272.127.225.175.257.27912.5%11.1%15.7%85.3109.71.9%26.4%22.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 53 balls in play
Ground 55%Line drive 6%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.143.250.143.213.23812.5%12.5%25.0%82.9104.00.0%18.2%18.2%
Last 15 G1544.128.209.154.196.30515.9%9.1%24.7%79.6104.06.7%23.3%20.0%
Last 30 G30100.132.186.143.187.27618.0%6.0%20.0%82.9108.72.7%23.3%27.4%
90 days61216.173.254.194.250.27515.7%9.7%17.3%82.6109.71.9%23.4%25.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 158 balls in play
Ground 56%Line drive 13%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 8%
Nasim Nuñez · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating13Poor
Last 100 pitches10steady
wOBA / xwOBA.233 / .267running 35 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit3/12
2+ total bases0/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23LHPSinker94.0104.0-3.399Out
Sep 23RHPFastball93.375.931.194Single
Sep 22RHPFastball93.938.1-18.341Out
Sep 22LHPSinker92.093.1-36.060Force out
Sep 21LHPSinker94.897.3-13.251Out
Sep 20LHPCurveball76.488.430.064Out
Sep 20LHPFastball93.691.72.461Out
Sep 20LHPFastball94.183.369.003Out
Sep 19RHPChangeup88.678.1-10.092Out
Sep 19RHPFastball93.391.0-23.079Single
Sep 19RHPFastball95.571.2-46.224Out
Sep 16RHPFastball94.751.11.136Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 23311010
Sep 22300001
Sep 21100000
Sep 20400000
Sep 19511011
Sep 18100000
Sep 16200000
Sep 15311010
Sep 9200010
Sep 6400002

Two strikes

Jonah Tong NYM · RHPwith two strikes
Jonah Tong with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball44%42%16.7%14.3%18.0%
Changeup23%35%35.0%27.6%18.6%
Cutter23%14%16.7%16.7%17.9%
Curveball10%10%60.0%37.5%20.1%
Nasim Nuñez bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Nasim Nuñez with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%34.7%41.0%
Whiff%17.8%21.3%
Contact%82.2%78.7%
Chase%39.3%39.6%
wOBA.230.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes16.1%19.3%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFContact type
wOBA.277
K%16.7%
BB%9.3%
Whiff%8.4%
Barrel%2.3%
Hard-hit%19.4%
Avg EV83.3

Against right-handers, last 90 days

144 PA
wOBA.254
xwOBA vs this mix.270against pitches like his
RV/100-1.74
Hard-hit%17.1%
K%17.8%
BB%9.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jonah TongRHP · NYM vs WSH
5.8projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 22.5 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 17.1%17%≤34 strikeouts: 14.3%14%45 strikeouts: 16.4%16%56 strikeouts: 15.9%16%67 strikeouts: 13.2%13%78 strikeouts: 9.6%10%89+ strikeouts: 13.5%14%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 52% (red bars) · under: 48%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%26.9%
BB%9.0%
Whiff%13.6%
Velo90.3
BTB Stuff106
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball44%11494.512.1%
Cutter23%11090.111.3%
Changeup23%9887.418.0%
Curveball10%8178.715.4%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209522%8%35%.333
Sep 148326%14%22%.220
Sep 78733%18%19%.324

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jonah Tong NYM · RHPvsWSH lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameNYM @ WSH →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Nasim Nuñez: every projection we've made →