MLBengine v14
← NYM at WSH, Sep 26, 2026
11:35 AM CT · Nationals Park · lineup projected
Hitter · NYM · batting 9Nick Morabito
Bats rightTalent grade AvgBalancedNormal
.303wOBA vs LHP.322xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · WSHConnelly Early
Throws leftBTB Stuff 94Stable
3.8projected K33%K%1.0trips vs this hitter
Nick Morabito's last 23 balls in playHit (8)Out (15)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Double: 95.3 mph at 26°Out: 102.0 mph at 4°Single: 102.1 mph at 0°Out: 100.0 mph at -2°Single: 94.9 mph at 8°Out: 99.2 mph at -6°Out: 100.6 mph at -2°Out: 60.7 mph at 54°Out: 86.8 mph at -39°Out: 96.3 mph at -11°Single: 102.6 mph at 12°Out: 79.8 mph at 58°Out: 85.8 mph at 54°Single: 80.0 mph at -63°Single: 79.3 mph at 18°Out: 69.5 mph at 68°Out: 90.9 mph at 27°Out: 92.9 mph at 2°Out: 103.4 mph at 17°Out: 106.1 mph at -20°Single: 98.6 mph at 11°Double: 73.3 mph at 18°Out: 88.7 mph at -16°
48% hit 95+ mph35% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit55.2%55.6%-0.4
2+ total bases29.9%29.7%+0.2
Home run8.7%8.3%+0.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
+0.4
Home run
Starter
+0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Nick Morabito · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G25.200.200.200.180.27940.0%0.0%20.0%101.4102.10.0%100.0%0.0%
Last 15 G610.125.300.125.230.34320.0%20.0%14.3%94.6102.10.0%50.0%16.7%
Last 30 G610.125.300.125.230.34320.0%20.0%14.3%94.6102.10.0%50.0%16.7%
90 days610.125.300.125.230.34320.0%20.0%14.3%94.6102.10.0%50.0%16.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 6 balls in play
Ground 67%Line drive 0%Fly ball 17%Pop-up 17%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G410.200.200.300.215.16540.0%0.0%29.4%89.6100.60.0%50.0%33.3%
Last 15 G924.318.375.409.350.33820.8%4.2%13.9%89.5106.10.0%47.1%41.2%
Last 30 G924.318.375.409.350.33820.8%4.2%13.9%89.5106.10.0%47.1%41.2%
90 days924.318.375.409.350.33820.8%4.2%13.9%89.5106.10.0%47.1%41.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 17 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 29%Fly ball 6%Pop-up 18%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.200.200.267.203.20340.0%0.0%25.9%93.5102.10.0%66.7%22.2%
Last 15 G1134.267.353.333.315.33920.6%8.8%14.0%90.8106.10.0%47.8%34.8%
Last 30 G1134.267.353.333.315.33920.6%8.8%14.0%90.8106.10.0%47.8%34.8%
90 days1134.267.353.333.315.33920.6%8.8%14.0%90.8106.10.0%47.8%34.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 23 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 22%Fly ball 9%Pop-up 17%
FormNormal
Contact rating–percentile of xwOBA
Last 100 pitches–
wOBA / xwOBA.317 / .324results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/11
2+ total bases3/11
Home run0/11

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPCutter92.395.326.288Double
Sep 23LHPChangeup82.4102.04.554Out
Sep 23LHPCurveball76.9102.10.472Single
Sep 20LHPSinker94.8100.0-2.368Out
Sep 17RHPCurveball78.794.98.576Single
Sep 17RHPSinker90.899.2-6.318Out
Sep 13RHPFastball98.0100.6-2.396Out
Sep 13RHPFastball99.160.754.018Out
Sep 13RHPSinker93.486.8-39.053Force out
Sep 12RHPFastball96.896.3-11.236Out
Sep 12RHPCurveball84.0102.612.947Single
Sep 12LHPCutter83.479.858.066Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24312002
Sep 23411002
Sep 20200001
Sep 17311001
Sep 13300000
Sep 12411010
Sep 7522010
Sep 6200000
Sep 4400011
Sep 2223000

Two strikes

Connelly Early WSH · LHPwith two strikes
Connelly Early with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper18%36%75.0%37.5%20.5%
Fastball20%23%0.0%0.0%18.6%
Sinker23%18%0.0%25.0%17.7%
Changeup20%14%–0.0%18.3%
Slider16%9%50.0%50.0%21.6%
Nick Morabito bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Nick Morabito with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%41.4%41.6%
Whiff%22.4%21.7%
Contact%77.6%78.3%
Chase%40.3%40.0%
wOBA.242.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes––

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.315
K%22.6%
BB%8.1%
Whiff%9.8%
Barrel%4.3%
Hard-hit%26.9%
Avg EV88.9

Against left-handers, last 90 days

10 PA
wOBA.303
xwOBA vs this mix.322against pitches like his
RV/100-0.31
Hard-hit%27.4%
K%22.3%
BB%8.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Connelly EarlyLHP · WSH vs NYM
3.8projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 14.2 batters over 3.3 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 46.8%47%≤34 strikeouts: 19.4%19%45 strikeouts: 14.8%15%56 strikeouts: 9.5%10%67 strikeouts: 5.3%5%78 strikeouts: 2.5%3%89+ strikeouts: 1.7%2%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 53% (red bars) · under: 47%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%33.3%
BB%13.3%
Whiff%11.5%
Velo88.8
BTB Stuff94
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker23%10192.90.0%
Changeup20%8484.68.3%
Fastball20%10194.90.0%
Sweeper18%9784.027.3%
Slider16%8487.720.0%
Curveball3%9480.250.0%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Connelly Early WSH · LHPvsNYM lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameNYM @ WSH →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Nick Morabito: every projection we've made →