MLBengine v14
← NYM at WSH, Sep 26, 2026
11:35 AM CT · Nationals Park · lineup projected
Hitter · WSH · batting 6Yohandy Morales
Bats rightTalent grade CPowerNormal
.351wOBA vs RHP.340xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · NYMJonah Tong
Throws rightBTB Stuff 106Stable
5.8projected K27%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jonah Tong's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 44% usage, 94.6 mph, +6.5″ arm side, +19.6″ rise. Yohandy Morales: wOBA .356 vs league .351 (about even).Fastball 44%Cutter: 23% usage, 90.1 mph, -2.5″ arm side, +14.5″ rise. Yohandy Morales: wOBA .345 vs league .339 (about even).Cutter 23%Changeup: 23% usage, 87.4 mph, +14.4″ arm side, +9.1″ rise. Yohandy Morales: wOBA .319 vs league .313 (about even).Changeup 23%Curveball: 10% usage, 78.7 mph, -6.8″ arm side, -13.0″ rise. Yohandy Morales: wOBA .297 vs league .292 (about even).Curveball 10%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Yohandy Morales's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Yohandy Morales's last 31 balls in playHit (12)Out (19)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 82.1 mph at 73°Home run: 107.1 mph at 28°Out: 96.1 mph at 63°Out: 107.6 mph at 1°Out: 63.0 mph at -14°Out: 95.4 mph at -2°Home run: 100.0 mph at 32°Double: 97.0 mph at 9°Out: 87.9 mph at 0°Out: 98.9 mph at 2°Out: 103.8 mph at -11°Double: 70.0 mph at 20°Single: 108.1 mph at 6°Out: 70.5 mph at 0°Out: 64.8 mph at -24°Single: 71.3 mph at 27°Out: 106.8 mph at -8°Out: 85.0 mph at 45°Out: 101.2 mph at -1°Out: 100.6 mph at 40°Out: 101.3 mph at -7°Out: 82.6 mph at 36°Out: 74.0 mph at 66°Out: 96.7 mph at 24°Home run: 103.3 mph at 32°Double: 103.3 mph at 9°Out: 71.2 mph at -14°Single: 107.8 mph at 14°Home run: 100.8 mph at 26°Single: 103.2 mph at -2°Double: 104.9 mph at 23°
65% hit 95+ mph35% in the sweet spot39% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit61.3%62.5%-1.3
2+ total bases35.9%37.0%-1.1
Home run12.8%13.6%-0.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.4
Pitch mix
-0.4
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.3
Pitch mix
-0.4
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
+0.4
Home run
Starter
-1.0
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Yohandy Morales against each of Jonah Tong's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball44%94.6+7″ / +20″.356.35120.9%19.5%4Little history vs this shape
Cutter23%90.1-3″ / +15″.345.33924.7%23.2%5Little history vs this shape
Changeup23%87.4+14″ / +9″.319.31328.4%27.9%5Little history vs this shape
Curveball10%78.7-7″ / -13″.297.29228.5%29.4%4Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Yohandy Morales · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G49.222.222.667.361.41022.2%0.0%21.1%95.0107.614.3%85.7%28.6%
Last 15 G1024.292.292.708.415.39025.0%0.0%24.5%92.3108.116.7%72.2%38.9%
Last 30 G1024.292.292.708.415.39025.0%0.0%24.5%92.3108.116.7%72.2%38.9%
90 days1024.292.292.708.415.39025.0%0.0%24.5%92.3108.116.7%72.2%38.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 18 balls in play
Ground 56%Line drive 11%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G34.250.2501.000.500.27325.0%0.0%28.6%90.0100.033.3%33.3%33.3%
Last 15 G1119.263.263.579.350.29031.6%0.0%44.1%92.7106.815.4%53.8%30.8%
Last 30 G1119.263.263.579.350.29031.6%0.0%44.1%92.7106.815.4%53.8%30.8%
90 days1119.263.263.579.350.29031.6%0.0%44.1%92.7106.815.4%53.8%30.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 13 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 15%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 15%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.231.231.769.404.36823.1%0.0%23.1%93.5107.620.0%70.0%30.0%
Last 15 G1543.279.279.651.386.34527.9%0.0%32.2%92.5108.116.1%64.5%35.5%
Last 30 G1543.279.279.651.386.34527.9%0.0%32.2%92.5108.116.1%64.5%35.5%
90 days1543.279.279.651.386.34527.9%0.0%32.2%92.5108.116.1%64.5%35.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 31 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 13%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 10%
FormNormal
Contact rating–percentile of xwOBA
Last 100 pitches–
wOBA / xwOBA.389 / .368running 21 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23LHPSinker93.482.173.000Out
Sep 23RHPSlider86.3107.1281.918Home run
Sep 23RHPCutter89.196.163.013Out
Sep 22RHPChangeup88.4107.61.462Out
Sep 22RHPSlider87.863.0-14.058Double play
Sep 22RHPCurveball83.495.4-2.321Out
Sep 21LHPSinker95.1100.032.832Home run
Sep 18RHPCurveball82.297.09.538Double
Sep 18LHPChangeup81.187.90.260Out
Sep 18RHPSweeper83.098.92.384Out
Sep 15LHPSinker94.8103.8-11.274Out
Sep 15LHPChangeup86.070.020.844Double
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 23414101
Sep 22300000
Sep 21114100
Sep 19100001
Sep 18412001
Sep 15312001
Sep 13422000
Sep 11400000
Sep 9300000
Sep 8414102

Two strikes

Jonah Tong NYM · RHPwith two strikes
Jonah Tong with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball44%42%16.7%14.3%18.0%
Changeup23%35%35.0%27.6%18.6%
Cutter23%14%16.7%16.7%17.9%
Curveball10%10%60.0%37.5%20.1%
Yohandy Morales bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Yohandy Morales with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%42.5%42.4%
Whiff%20.0%22.2%
Contact%80.0%77.8%
Chase%36.2%39.8%
wOBA.237.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes21.1%23.4%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCPower type
wOBA.326
K%23.9%
BB%6.7%
Whiff%11.6%
Barrel%6.1%
Hard-hit%29.6%
Avg EV89.2

Against right-handers, last 90 days

24 PA
wOBA.351
xwOBA vs this mix.340against pitches like his
RV/1001.16
Hard-hit%36.3%
K%24.1%
BB%4.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jonah TongRHP · NYM vs WSH
5.8projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 22.5 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 17.1%17%≤34 strikeouts: 14.3%14%45 strikeouts: 16.4%16%56 strikeouts: 15.9%16%67 strikeouts: 13.2%13%78 strikeouts: 9.6%10%89+ strikeouts: 13.5%14%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 52% (red bars) · under: 48%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%26.9%
BB%9.0%
Whiff%13.6%
Velo90.3
BTB Stuff106
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball44%11494.512.1%
Cutter23%11090.111.3%
Changeup23%9887.418.0%
Curveball10%8178.715.4%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209522%8%35%.333
Sep 148326%14%22%.220
Sep 78733%18%19%.324

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jonah Tong NYM · RHPvsWSH lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameNYM @ WSH →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Yohandy Morales: every projection we've made →