MLBengine v14
← PIT at DET, Sep 26, 2026
12:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · lineup projected
Hitter · PIT · batting 8Jake Mangum
Switch hitterTalent grade FBalancedHot
.309wOBA vs RHP.285xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · DETJustin Verlander
Throws rightStable
4.1projected K–K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jake Mangum's last 40 balls in playHit (8)Out (32)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 31.8 mph at 75°Out: 82.7 mph at 78°Out: 85.5 mph at -32°Out: 84.6 mph at 25°Out: 91.2 mph at -51°Home run: 102.2 mph at 32°Out: 80.2 mph at 41°Out: 102.1 mph at 17°Out: 89.8 mph at -18°Out: 100.2 mph at 2°Single: 98.6 mph at 0°Out: 96.4 mph at 0°Out: 91.7 mph at -18°Out: 100.1 mph at 12°Out: 75.8 mph at -11°Single: 106.3 mph at 14°Out: 89.0 mph at -50°Double: 103.7 mph at 23°Out: 79.9 mph at 36°Out: 76.3 mph at -22°Out: 81.4 mph at 27°Out: 95.6 mph at 16°Out: 66.6 mph at -17°Out: 101.3 mph at 35°Out: 82.2 mph at 63°Out: 102.2 mph at -30°Out: 84.1 mph at 20°Out: 72.1 mph at 9°Out: 90.7 mph at -17°Double: 87.4 mph at 16°Out: 87.6 mph at 34°Single: 71.5 mph at 31°Out: 83.7 mph at -11°Out: 93.0 mph at 27°Out: 83.2 mph at 36°Out: 83.9 mph at 6°Double: 93.4 mph at 7°Out: 58.1 mph at -69°Single: 81.0 mph at -2°Out: 24.8 mph at -9°
28% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot20% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit57.1%56.8%+0.3
2+ total bases27.4%27.2%+0.1
Home run5.2%5.2%-0.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.0
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.0
Home run
Starter
-0.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jake Mangum · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.091.167.091.133.21133.3%8.3%16.7%92.7102.10.0%42.9%28.6%
Last 15 G1539.200.282.257.265.32515.4%7.7%16.1%87.5102.20.0%25.9%29.6%
Last 30 G2666.200.273.250.251.28619.7%6.1%18.5%84.5102.20.0%24.4%24.4%
90 days63189.254.317.358.312.28920.1%5.8%19.7%85.0104.91.5%29.5%31.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 132 balls in play
Ground 59%Line drive 20%Fly ball 17%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G35.200.200.800.400.24220.0%0.0%36.4%74.9102.225.0%25.0%25.0%
Last 15 G1117.188.188.438.316.43311.8%0.0%24.1%81.5106.313.3%33.3%46.7%
Last 30 G1840.167.231.278.253.32022.5%5.0%19.5%82.4106.310.7%32.1%39.3%
90 days4188.260.333.390.331.31920.5%4.5%19.0%85.2107.16.6%27.9%34.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 61 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 20%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.125.176.312.212.22029.4%5.9%22.0%86.3102.29.1%36.4%27.3%
Last 15 G1556.196.255.314.280.35714.3%5.4%18.1%85.3106.34.8%28.6%35.7%
Last 30 G30106.188.257.260.251.29920.8%5.7%18.8%83.7106.34.1%27.4%30.1%
90 days67277.256.322.368.318.29820.2%5.4%19.5%85.1107.13.1%29.0%32.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 193 balls in play
Ground 55%Line drive 20%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 6%
Jake Mangum · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating34Below average
Last 100 pitches71trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.310 / .301results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPFastball89.831.875.037Out
Sep 24RHPSlider84.882.778.010Out
Sep 23LHPCurveball78.685.5-32.048Out
Sep 20RHPChangeup79.484.625.179Out
Sep 20RHPFastball98.291.2-51.200Out
Sep 19LHPSlider85.6102.2321.083Home run
Sep 19LHPCutter89.180.241.041Out
Sep 19RHPChangeup84.8102.117.459Out
Sep 16RHPSweeper79.389.8-18.131Out
Sep 16RHPFastball93.0100.22.432Out
Sep 16RHPSinker96.598.60.428Single
Sep 15RHPFastball98.396.40.433Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24300001
Sep 23300002
Sep 20400011
Sep 19314100
Sep 16411001
Sep 15400000
Sep 13423010
Sep 12400001
Sep 11411000
Sep 10300000

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.320
K%19.9%
BB%5.5%
Whiff%11.1%
Barrel%2.2%
Hard-hit%21.1%
Avg EV85.4

Against right-handers, last 90 days

186 PA
wOBA.309
xwOBA vs this mix.285against pitches like his
RV/100-0.24
Hard-hit%21.0%
K%20.7%
BB%5.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Justin VerlanderRHP · DET vs PIT
4.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 19.4 batters over 4.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 42.2%42%≤34 strikeouts: 19.5%19%45 strikeouts: 15.8%16%56 strikeouts: 10.7%11%67 strikeouts: 6.2%6%78 strikeouts: 3.2%3%89+ strikeouts: 2.4%2%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 62%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Velo–
BTB Stuff–
Location–

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Justin Verlander DET · RHPvsPIT lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gamePIT @ DET →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jake Mangum: every projection we've made →