MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup projected
Hitter · MIL · batting 5Gary Sánchez
Bats rightTalent grade CBalancedNormal
.322wOBA vs LHP.313xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · STLQuinn Mathews
Throws leftBTB Stuff 92Stable
5.0projected K20%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Quinn Mathews's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 39% usage, 93.4 mph, +5.3″ arm side, +16.4″ rise. Gary Sánchez: wOBA .336 vs league .337 (about even).Fastball 39%Slider: 23% usage, 84.9 mph, -3.2″ arm side, +1.3″ rise. Gary Sánchez: wOBA .313 vs league .314 (about even).Slider 23%Changeup: 17% usage, 83.0 mph, +11.4″ arm side, +4.3″ rise. Gary Sánchez: wOBA .308 vs league .310 (about even).Changeup 17%Curveball: 13% usage, 75.6 mph, -9.6″ arm side, -12.2″ rise. Gary Sánchez: wOBA .321 vs league .323 (about even).Curveball 13%Sinker: 9% usage, 92.7 mph, +11.4″ arm side, +12.3″ rise. Gary Sánchez: wOBA .357 vs league .358 (about even).Sinker 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Gary Sánchez's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Gary Sánchez's last 40 balls in playHit (11)Out (29)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 96.9 mph at 24°Out: 80.4 mph at -6°Single: 75.5 mph at 7°Out: 99.2 mph at -8°Out: 62.9 mph at -43°Out: 87.4 mph at -7°Single: 72.2 mph at 28°Out: 86.0 mph at 45°Out: 88.3 mph at 27°Out: 97.3 mph at 7°Out: 85.9 mph at -22°Single: 69.0 mph at 27°Double: 106.2 mph at -2°Out: 100.8 mph at 19°Home run: 99.7 mph at 31°Out: 78.0 mph at -25°Out: 76.9 mph at -9°Out: 58.5 mph at 19°Out: 77.6 mph at 72°Out: 68.5 mph at -42°Out: 65.5 mph at 1°Out: 92.8 mph at 9°Out: 91.0 mph at 71°Out: 96.7 mph at -27°Out: 82.4 mph at -8°Out: 84.0 mph at 52°Out: 107.6 mph at -1°Double: 88.5 mph at 18°Out: 70.0 mph at -5°Out: 74.7 mph at -20°Out: 77.0 mph at 59°Out: 56.8 mph at -49°Out: 93.4 mph at 11°Out: 100.5 mph at 2°Out: 98.3 mph at -5°Single: 80.2 mph at 13°Home run: 102.5 mph at 27°Double: 112.3 mph at 4°Double: 107.2 mph at 16°Out: 87.5 mph at 69°
33% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot28% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit56.5%55.4%+1.1
2+ total bases31.8%30.7%+1.1
Home run11.2%10.4%+0.7
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.5
Pitch mix
+0.8
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.4
Pitch mix
+0.7
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.1
Home run
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
+0.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Gary Sánchez against each of Quinn Mathews's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball39%93.4+5″ / +16″.336.33718.2%17.2%10About league average vs these
Slider23%84.9-3″ / +1″.313.31433.6%28.5%15About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup17%83.0+11″ / +4″.308.31040.7%32.6%6Little history vs this shape
Curveball13%75.6-10″ / -12″.321.32331.2%26.2%3Little history vs this shape
Sinker9%92.7+11″ / +12″.357.35817.2%16.2%19About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Gary Sánchez · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G49.333.556.333.450.3660.0%33.3%12.5%83.999.20.0%33.3%33.3%
Last 15 G1125.150.320.300.292.30112.0%20.0%35.3%85.1107.65.9%35.3%35.3%
Last 30 G2149.186.286.372.292.27620.4%10.2%32.1%85.9112.36.1%33.3%33.3%
90 days2762.192.323.404.323.31917.7%14.5%30.9%87.9112.37.3%39.0%34.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 41 balls in play
Ground 49%Line drive 20%Fly ball 15%Pop-up 17%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G410.111.200.111.160.21750.0%10.0%30.8%85.797.30.0%25.0%25.0%
Last 15 G1020.167.250.222.222.21940.0%10.0%32.1%84.1106.20.0%20.0%20.0%
Last 30 G2147.205.340.359.325.28034.0%17.0%28.6%85.9106.24.5%27.3%31.8%
90 days2557.200.368.356.339.30728.1%21.1%26.5%86.0106.23.6%28.6%32.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 28 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 18%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.200.368.200.289.28326.3%21.1%23.8%84.699.20.0%30.0%30.0%
Last 15 G1545.158.289.263.260.26424.4%15.6%33.9%84.7107.63.7%29.6%29.6%
Last 30 G3096.195.312.366.308.27827.1%13.5%30.4%85.9112.35.5%30.9%32.7%
90 days36119.196.345.381.331.31322.7%17.6%28.8%87.1112.35.8%34.8%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 69 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 19%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 14%
Gary Sánchez · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating51Average
Last 100 pitches51steady
wOBA / xwOBA.332 / .318results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPCutter90.796.924.351Single
Sep 24LHPSinker93.880.4-6.092Out
Sep 19LHPChangeup87.675.57.233Single
Sep 19LHPChangeup85.299.2-8.223Out
Sep 19LHPChangeup87.462.9-43.152Out
Sep 17RHPCutter91.287.4-7.142Out
Sep 17RHPSlider89.272.228.759Single
Sep 13RHPSlider92.586.045.006Out
Sep 13LHPCutter91.088.327.082Out
Sep 13RHPFastball97.697.37.564Out
Sep 6RHPCutter86.285.9-22.068Out
Sep 5RHPFastball95.169.027.885Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24511012
Sep 19311000
Sep 17311001
Sep 13400001
Sep 8400031
Sep 6100000
Sep 5423011
Sep 2200010
Aug 31100001
Aug 30414112

Two strikes

Quinn Mathews STL · LHPwith two strikes
Quinn Mathews with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider23%32%28.3%15.9%21.6%
Fastball39%32%22.4%15.0%18.6%
Changeup17%22%25.9%12.5%18.3%
Curveball13%10%18.8%16.7%21.3%
Sinker9%4%0.0%27.3%17.7%
Gary Sánchez bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Gary Sánchez with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%37.8%41.6%
Whiff%21.5%21.7%
Contact%78.5%78.3%
Chase%39.6%40.0%
wOBA.234.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes22.9%23.1%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.324
K%23.8%
BB%10.8%
Whiff%10.4%
Barrel%5.0%
Hard-hit%26.4%
Avg EV89.1

Against left-handers, last 90 days

62 PA
wOBA.322
xwOBA vs this mix.313against pitches like his
RV/1000.45
Hard-hit%25.4%
K%19.6%
BB%15.7%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Quinn MathewsLHP · STL vs MIL
5.0projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 24.3 batters over 5.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 26.7%27%≤34 strikeouts: 17.5%17%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.5%15%67 strikeouts: 10.4%10%78 strikeouts: 6.6%7%89+ strikeouts: 6.9%7%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 56% (red bars) · under: 44%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.4%
BB%9.4%
Whiff%10.8%
Velo87.3
BTB Stuff92
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball39%10593.49.2%
Slider23%8784.811.7%
Changeup17%6783.019.2%
Curveball13%9475.76.7%
Sinker9%9292.85.9%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209610%9%38%.327
Sep 149932%14%4%.231
Sep 89916%10%32%.338

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Quinn Mathews STL · LHPvsMIL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Gary Sánchez: every projection we've made →